Tomorrow's Macro Roadmap: Fed Minutes / Japan Wages

Roadmap

The Federal Reserve's minutes of the September meeting at 20:00 CET are the day's main event, after Japan's wage data at 01:30 CET, the Reserve Bank of India's decision at 06:30 CET, the US crude inventory report at 16:30 CET and the New York Fed's survey of consumer inflation expectations at 17:00 CET.

The day opens with Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, a 2026 voter, moderating a conversation at 01:00 CET, Japan's labour cash earnings at 01:30 CET and the Reserve Bank of India's decision at 06:30 CET. In Europe, German industrial production for August at 08:00 CET is expected to rise 0.5% m/m after a 1.1% fall, Sweden's September inflation is released at 08:00 CET and ECB Vice-President Boris Vujčić speaks in Brussels at 09:20 CET. The US session brings mortgage applications at 13:00 CET, the crude inventory report at 16:30 CET, consumer inflation expectations at 17:00 CET, a $39 billion 10-year note reopening at 19:00 CET, the Fed minutes at 20:00 CET and consumer credit at 21:00 CET.

Japan's labour cash earnings for August are released at 01:30 CET: consensus looks for growth of 3.7% y/y, slowing from 4.3% in July (revised from 4.7%), with the Bloomberg median also at 3.7% inside a range of 3.0% to 4.4%.

Real cash earnings are expected to slow to 1.5% y/y from a revised 2.0%, and scheduled pay for full-time workers on a same-sample basis to rise 2.9% after 2.8%. Research houses see the slowdown as the fading of the summer bonuses that lifted June and July: one house expects headline growth of 3.7% with base pay holding at 3.7% as the 2026 spring wage round, a 3.5% rise in base pay, feeds through to pay packets, another expects 3.0%, and a third expects the same-sample measure to pick up to 3.6% from 2.9%.

Bloomberg survey: median 3.7%, range 3.0% to 4.4% (as of 06-10-2026).

BOJ market pricing as of 06-10-2026, 17:55 CET:

Changes are measured from today's effective rate of 1.23%. The policy rate is 1.25%.

Editor's Note: No research house expects a rate rise on 30 October, and the market prices only 3 basis points for it, so the cash earnings data night matters for the December-or-January debate. Base pay holding near 3.7% would support the December case some houses favour. Headline growth of near 3% with softer base pay would favour January. Thursday's branch managers' meeting and regional report are the next checkpoint.

The Federal Reserve publishes the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of 15-16 September at 20:00 CET, the record of a unanimous 25 basis point rise to 3.75-4.00%, the first increase since July 2023.

The September projections put the median rate at 4.1% at the end of 2026, one more 25 basis point rise this year, and eight of the 18 officials who submit projections saw another increase in 2027. The statement carried no forward guidance. One research house expects the minutes to show that almost all participants saw at least one more rise as appropriate this year and that several favoured two, consistent with the projections, and will look for discussion of the inflation revisions, the balance-sheet review and Chair Kevin Warsh's proposal to cut the number of scheduled meetings to six a year from eight. Another house doubts the minutes will offer real clues, since they will mostly explain a unanimous decision, and sees the mid-October inflation report as the key to the timing of the next move.

Fed projections, September 2026: medians, June in brackets (percent)

Federal funds rate projections: spread of the 18 participants (percent)

The federal funds rate is the midpoint of the target range at year-end; the range is now 3.75-4.00%, a midpoint of 3.875%, so the 4.1% median for 2026 means one more 25 basis point rise this year. Compared with June, the median rate path is 30 to 50 basis points higher in every year, unemployment is projected lower and inflation slightly higher. GDP and inflation are changes from the fourth quarter of the previous year, unemployment is the fourth-quarter average, and the 2029 column is new in September. The central tendency excludes the three highest and three lowest projections.

Source: Federal Reserve, Summary of Economic Projections, Table 1, released 16 September 2026, 20:00 CET: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260916.htm (PDF: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20260916.pdf)

Fed market pricing as of 06-10-2026, 17:55 CET:

Changes are measured from today's effective rate of 3.88%. The target range is 3.75-4.00%.

Editor's Note: The minutes predate both the softer payrolls report, the downward PCE inflation revisions, and some dovish Fed talk (Williams). So a hawkish record should have a short shelf life: what matters is how many officials argued that energy prices are feeding underlying inflation, and whether any argued for a pause. Broad support for a rise this year would sit comfortably with the 25 basis points priced by December, while a discussion of two or more further rises could lift the two-year Treasury yield and the dollar; signs that several officials saw September as a single adjustment would push December pricing lower.