GGMA Markets Briefing: Oil Nears $100 After US Sinks Iranian Tankers as Yen Extends Rally and Korean Chips Lead Asia

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Here is a brief summary of today’s Markets Briefing: Oil Nears $100 After US Sinks Iranian Tankers as Yen Extends Rally and Korean Chips Lead Asia

• Brent closed in on triple figures after the US destroyed five Iranian tankers near Kharg Island and in the Gulf of Oman, Iran fired missiles at Jordan and the Revolutionary Guard warned tanker crews at Kuwaiti and Bahraini piers to abandon ship.

• The yen strengthened for a third day after Treasury Secretary Bessent said he has inside insight into what the Bank of Japan will do and dared traders to bet against him, with hedge funds using options to target further gains by year-end.

• Korean chipmakers led Asian equities higher behind SK Hynix and Samsung as the AI trade shrugged off rate-hike fears, with Qualcomm signing Amazon and Apple's foldable iPhone event due tonight.

• RBA Deputy Governor Hauser said the economy and inflation are running stronger than expected and the Board must weigh whether a further rate rise is needed this month.

• Bank of England Governor Bailey told MPs there is no secret plan to raise rates and that the market curve carries a risk premium, while Chancellor Healey said borrowing is still too high and refused to rule out tax rises.

• The US moved to ban Canadian alcohol, whey and motorcycle imports and widened its punitive tariffs hours after Canada's counter-tariffs took effect, with Carney warning of tough days ahead.

Today's Macro Roadmap: Treasury buyback size about 17:00 CET, the 10-year reopening and Apple's event 19:00 CET, Nagel 19:00 CET. ECB Thursday, US CPI Friday.

GGMA Markets Briefing: Oil Nears $100 After US Sinks Iranian Tankers as Yen Extends Rally and Korean Chips Lead Asia

Oil rose towards $100 a barrel after the US military destroyed five Iranian tankers and Iran fired missiles at Jordan, while Korean chipmakers led Asian equities and the yen strengthened for a third day (BBG) (BBG).

GGMA Markets Briefing: Oil Nears $100 After US Sinks Iranian Tankers as Yen Extends Rally and Korean Chips Lead Asia

Brent rose 0.95% to $98.85 and WTI 0.84% to $93.81 (BBG). Bloomberg reports that the tankers were struck near Kharg Island, which loads about 90% of Iran's crude exports, and in the Gulf of Oman, that the Revolutionary Guard told tanker crews near Kuwaiti and Bahraini piers to abandon their vessels, and that Houthi attacks forced several energy sites in southern Saudi Arabia to halt (BBG). Friday's US inflation report is the next test for the Federal Reserve's meeting next week, and Evercore ISI strategist Krishna Guha wrote that investors should brace for a turbulent week (BBG).

In stocks, Seoul rallied behind SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics after the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index gained on Tuesday, and Bloomberg reports the Kospi is the world's best-performing major index this year (BBG). Nasdaq futures rose 0.22% to 29,604 and S&P 500 futures 0.12% to 7,690, while Nikkei futures slipped 0.18% to 65,090 as the yen extended its gains and the Hang Seng eased 0.11% to 25,198 (BBG) (BBG). In Europe, Euro Stoxx 50 futures fell 0.45% to 6,385, the DAX 0.49% to 25,886 and FTSE futures 0.37% to 10,785 as Brent approached triple figures (BBG) (LS).

Regarding the RBA, Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said both the economy and inflation are running stronger than expected, forcing the Board to weigh whether a further rise is needed at this month's meeting, and that a trip to Texas left him more worried about upside inflation risks from the data-centre rollout (Afr). Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter said on Tuesday that the Board may well have to raise rates if inflation runs stronger than forecast (Afr). Regarding the Bank of England, Governor Andrew Bailey told the Treasury Committee he wants to dispel the idea that the Bank has a secret, unconditional plan to raise rates, saying the market curve contains a risk premium that reflects reasonable worries about energy prices, while Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden called domestic inflation pressure relatively benign and Megan Greene, who voted for a rise in July, worried that a long oil shock could entrench higher inflation expectations (Reuters). Alan Taylor wrote that holding Bank Rate at a moderately restrictive level provides insurance against external risks and that the case for resuming cuts would strengthen if the conflict subsides (Co). Regarding the Bank of Japan, Bloomberg reports the Bank is leaning towards a quarter-point rise on 18 September while leaving open a faster pace afterwards, and PineBridge's Tadashi Matsukawa said the pattern of a rise once every few months no longer applies (BBG). For the Bank of Japan, markets price a 97% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike on 18 September, and 47 basis points cumulatively by December. For the RBA, markets price a 71% probability of a rate hike in September, 18 basis points of tightening, and 34 basis points cumulatively by December. For the ECB, markets price a 100% probability of a rate hike at Thursday's meeting, and 51 basis points cumulatively by December. For the Fed, markets price a 62% probability of a rate hike in September, 16 basis points of tightening, and 35 basis points cumulatively by December. For the Bank of England, markets price an 8% probability of a rate hike in September, 2 basis points of tightening, and 31 basis points cumulatively by December.

In currencies, the yen strengthened 0.49% to 153.22 per dollar after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he has "pretty good insight" into what the Bank of Japan and Japanese policymakers will do when he intervenes and invited traders to bet against him (BBG). Bloomberg reports that Japan spent a record $96.4 billion supporting the yen between 30 July and 26 August, and that hedge funds are using options to target further yen gains by year-end, with put volume on contracts expiring this year more than triple that of calls and Citigroup's Jerry Minier describing a potential regime change in the currency (BBG) (BBG). JPMorgan Securities Japan strategists led by Rie Nishihara wrote that the stronger yen can ease pressure on bond yields and bring forward a recovery in Tokyo's AI and chip shares, while Saxo's Charu Chanana warned the rally could trigger an unwind of crowded positions (BBG). Strategists at Citigroup, Maybank, Societe Generale and BBVA are pointing to the offshore yuan as the funding currency to replace the yen in carry trades, with a yuan-funded basket of emerging-market currencies returning 1.5% over three months while the yen-funded version lost 1% (BBG). Bloomberg's dollar gauge fell 0.15% to 1,185.57, the won firmed 0.32% to 1,335.77 per dollar, the Australian dollar rose 0.22% to 0.7233 and the euro edged up 0.11% to 1.1637 (BBG) (LS). Sterling firmed 0.11% to 1.3556 after Bailey's testimony, the Canadian dollar was little changed at 1.3772 per dollar as the trade war escalated and the rupee weakened 0.41% to 95.22 per dollar (Reuters) (BBG).

In government bonds, the Treasury ten-year yield was steady at 4.79% and the two-year at 4.40% after the three-year auction stopped at 4.47% against 4.29% last time (LS). The Treasury is expected to announce the size of Thursday's buyback of ten- to twenty-year securities at about 17:00 CET, the first since it said on 19 August it would at least double the $2 billion operations, and Bloomberg reports that Wrightson's Lou Crandall sees $5 billion to $6 billion as a plausible start while Morgan Stanley puts a practical cap near $10 billion (BBG). Bessent said the programme is meant to cool a "fever" in a market that had become narrative-based, and separately that the administration would rush a deficit-consolidation plan through the lame-duck session if Democrats flip a chamber in November (BBG) (BBG). The Japanese ten-year yield fell 1.7 basis points to 2.88%, and Bloomberg reports that money managers are debating whether Japan's roughly $5 trillion of overseas assets start coming home now that the ten-year has touched 3%, with Vanguard's Ales Koutny saying higher domestic yields could keep more capital in Japan and Deutsche Bank estimating potential reallocation of up to $440 billion, although the flow data show little shift so far (BBG). Bund futures slipped 0.13% to 121.88 into Thursday's ECB meeting (LS). Gilts open to Chancellor John Healey's statement that borrowing at 3.6% of GDP is "still too high" and his refusal to rule out tax rises at next month's budget, with the gilt sell-off eating into his £23.6 billion buffer against the fiscal rules (BBG). The Chinese ten-year yield held at 1.68% as Bloomberg reports that government bonds now make up 16.4% of banks' assets, matching household loans for the first time as lending slumps (BBG).

In commodities, Bloomberg reports that renewed Chinese buying has helped tighten the oil market while smaller Chinese refiners are being squeezed by higher crude costs, and that European gas rose for a fourth session after the strikes (BBG). Reuters reports that six commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, down from nine and below the ten-day average of about twelve, and that Bab el-Mandeb traffic was also below its ten-day average as the Houthis struck several Saudi cities (Reuters). The Wall Street Journal writes that no Iranian crude has crossed the US blockade since mid-July, that Iran's floating stocks outside the blockade have fallen to about 29 million barrels from about 90 million and could run out by mid-October, and that official inflation in Iran is above 80% (WSJ). The US also sanctioned 27 Iranian airlines and terminated all aviation-related licences, with a Treasury official saying it is taking the whole Iranian aviation sector out of the market (CNN). Gold rose 1.01% to $4,400 as the weaker dollar offset the inflation concern from the Gulf attacks, copper fell 0.73% after this week's run to a record, and Bitcoin rose 0.52% to 78,890 (Straitstimes).

On the tariff front, Reuters and Bloomberg report that the US moved to ban imports of most Canadian alcohol, whey products and motorcycles from 29 September and extended the 50% tariffs imposed under a Depression-era statute to certain cheeses, hides, motorboats, aluminium and paper products, golf carts and mattresses, hours after Canada's counter-tariffs of 15% to 50% on some $20 billion of US goods took effect (BBG) (Reuters). Bloomberg says the threat to lift Canadian auto tariffs to 50% on 1 January remains in place, that Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Canada's Dominic LeBlanc are expected to speak in the coming days, and that Bloomberg Economics puts roughly 0.8% of Canadian GDP at risk in the short term (BBG) (BBG). Prime Minister Mark Carney said he does not believe in escalating the conflict but that the tariffs are needed to protect workers, and Sapporo is moving some beer production to the US (BBG) (BBG). The European Union and Canada are pursuing a broader partnership spanning trade and security (BBG).

In corporate news, Apple holds its product event at 19:00 CET with a roughly $2,000 foldable iPhone Duo as the centrepiece and new chief executive John Ternus fronting his first launch (Yahoo). Qualcomm signed Amazon as a data-centre chip customer and investor, Meta unveiled an AI agent that carries out tasks on a user's behalf, ASML won commitments from top chipmakers for its latest production gear, and Kioxia's chief executive played down deeper ties with SK Hynix while pledging to keep memory prices in check (BBG).

Data and the day ahead: China's consumer prices rose 0.8% from a year earlier in August, up from 0.5% and in line with consensus, core inflation rose to 1.0% from 0.9% against 0.9% expected, and producer prices rose 3.8% against 3.6% expected after 3.5%, with the statistics bureau attributing the pickup to energy and Bloomberg Economics calling it supply-driven rather than a demand signal (BBG). Japan's machine tool orders rose 64.7% from a year earlier in August after 50.4%, the Reuters Tankan manufacturers' index rose to +21 in September from +18, and M2 money growth slowed to 2.0% from 2.1% (LS). Norway's producer prices including oil rose 30.1% from a year earlier in August after 23.4% (LS). US consumer credit rose $18.1 billion in July against $11.3 billion expected after a revised $14.6 billion, and Bloomberg reports the gain in non-revolving credit was the largest in three years (BBG). Still to come: US mortgage applications at 13:00 CET, the ADP weekly employment change at 14:15 CET, the Treasury buyback announcement at about 17:00 CET, the EIA short-term energy outlook at 18:00 CET and the $39 billion ten-year reopening at 19:00 CET. The Riksbank's Anna Seim speaks in Stockholm at 18:00 CET, and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel speaks in Berlin at 19:00 CET, inside the ECB's quiet period. The Fed is in its blackout, the ECB decides on Thursday at 14:15 CET, with President Christine Lagarde's press conference at 14:45 CET, US PPI and jobless claims land on Thursday, Friday's US CPI at 14:30 CET is the last inflation print before the Fed's 16 September meeting, the Bank of England decides on 17 September and the Bank of Japan on 18 September (LS) (BBG) (Reuters) (BBG).

Time Stamp: 9 September 2026, 08:03 CET