Macro Roadmap 09-01-2025: Macro Roadmap: Swiss, US & Canada labour market reports, UoM consumer confidence in focus
Today’s Macro Roadmap: Swiss, US & Canada labour market reports, UoM consumer confidence in focus
Of the three labour market reports to be released today, Switzerland’s is likely the least impactful, with the unemployment rate expected to remain stable at 3% in December.
However, leading indicators point to a softer labour market ahead.
The most data release today will be the December US labour market report at 14:30 CET. The unemployment rate and wage data will likely attract the most attention. The consensus is looking for a downtick in the unemployment rate to 4.5% from 4.6% in November. Wages are expected to increase to 3.6% compared to last year, up from 3.5% previously.
Here are the consensus estimates collected by my friends at LiveSquawk:
Bank of America’s internal data shows that year-over-year (YoY) payroll growth rebounded in December to 0.6% YoY, up from 0.2% YoY in November. Meanwhile, the growth in the number of households receiving unemployment benefits remained around 10% YoY in December. So, while the labor market appears to still be in a “low-hire, low-fire” mode, the apparent rebound in jobs growth may suggest the worst of the slowdown is behind us, the bank says. After-tax wage growth eased in December across income cohorts, most notably for middle-income households (1.5% YoY vs. 2.3% in November) and higher-income households (3.0% YoY vs. 3.7%). While this may be temporary, it bears watching given potential implications for consumer spending.
Also important will be the release of the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer confidence report. Sentiment is expected to improve to 53.5 in January, up from 52.9 in December.
Of interest will be the report breakdown, as current economic conditions are more linked to developments in the labour market.
Fed policymakers Kashkari and Barkin are also scheduled to speak. In his last speech, Kashkari stated that he believes monetary policy is "pretty close to neutral right now," suggesting interest rates don't need to be cut much more. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin emphasised in his last speech that monetary policy now requires "finely tuned judgments" as unemployment has ticked up to 4.6 per cent while inflation remains at 2.8 per cent, above the Fed's 2 per cent target. After 175 basis points of rate cuts bringing rates "within the range of its estimates of neutral," he highlighted the economy's resilience with 4.3 per cent third-quarter GDP growth, though businesses operated cautiously in 2025 amid policy uncertainty. Looking to 2026, Barkin presented competing scenarios: a pessimistic view of narrow growth concentrated in AI and healthcare, versus an optimistic outlook in which diminishing uncertainty and stimulus from tax cuts, lower gas prices, and deregulation allow businesses to resume hiring and investment.
In Canada, the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 6.6% in December, compared to 6.5% in the previous month.
Good luck today!