Markets Briefing: China Export Beat Lifts Asia and Metals as Hike Bets Build Before CPI
Good morning,
I hope all is well.
Here are the main market movers and overnight stories:
Asian equities firmed, and industrial metals rallied as a blowout in Chinese trade steadied sentiment, even with the US-Iran standoff keeping a bid under oil on the eve of US CPI and Fed Chair Warsh's first congressional testimony (BBG). Crude held its gains after President Trump reinstated the blockade of Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz and demanded a transit reimbursement, though the advance cooled from the prior session (BBG).
Asia led the recovery. South Korea's Kospi rose 1.16% as SK Hynix rebounded from Monday's record slide, and mainland China's CSI 300 climbed 1.16% after the trade data, with the Nikkei up 0.77% and the Hang Seng 0.26% higher. European futures were the laggards, the DAX off 0.38% and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.41%, while India's Nifty 50 slipped 0.36%. The Vantage view that the AI wave, not oil, drives the medium term found support in the semiconductor bounce.
Central banks are being repriced hawkishly. Fed Governor Waller said the FOMC will need to consider tightening in the near term if this week's core inflation reading comes in hot, citing a core gauge that has risen every month since January, and money markets moved to price roughly even odds of a July hike (BBG). In the Antipodes, the RBNZ's Conway warned that firms are more willing to pass on costs and that sticky inflation risks further hikes, a week after the bank's first increase in three years (WSJ).
In FX, the dollar softened; the Dollar Index was off 0.11% to 101.163 as traders positioned ahead of the CPI (BBG). The yen edged up to 162.277 but held near multi-decade lows after Finance Minister Katayama floated steering more household and pension cash into domestic assets, measures that remain aspirational, and the risk-sensitive antipodeans led gains, the New Zealand dollar up 0.80% and the Australian dollar 0.29% on the hawkish central-bank tilt. The won strengthened 0.45% against the dollar alongside the Kospi's advance, while the rupee, an oil importer, weakened 0.47%.
Bonds rallied, led by Japan. The 10-year Japanese government bond yield fell 5.3 basis points to 2.727%, the day's sharpest move, as JGBs gained across the curve on the Katayama-driven domestic-demand story and a strong long-dated auction; a pension-fund rebalancing could spur sizeable JGB buying, according to sell-side estimates (Nikkei). The US 10-year yield eased 1.0 basis point to 4.614% ahead of the CPI, while the Australian 10-year added 1.3 basis points to 4.902% and Bund futures slipped 0.18%.
Commodities were firm across the board. Copper led, up 1.71% to 6.3885, maybe because of the Chinese export beat, and crude rose 1.20% to 79.08 (Reuters). Precious metals extended their haven bid despite the hawkish repricing, gold up 0.75% to 4,031.16 and silver 1.12%, while natural gas eased 0.69%. Bitcoin firmed 0.71% to 62,708.
The overnight data delivered a genuine upside surprise. China's June exports jumped 27.0% year on year against an 18.2% consensus, with imports up 36.0% versus 24.0% and the surplus widening to $125.62bn from $105.43bn; the beat was led by higher semiconductor prices, however, with export volumes actually contracting and the strong imports likewise flattered by chip prices rather than a genuine demand revival (WSJ). Elsewhere the reads were softer: the UK's BRC retail sales monitor slowed to 1.7% from 3.4%, missing a 2.6% consensus; Japanese final industrial production was revised to just 0.1% on the month; India's June inflation accelerated to 4.38%, above forecasts (CNBC); and New Zealand business confidence rebounded to 8 from -4 while Australia's NAB reading recovered to -5.
On the corporate tape, attention stayed on the chip complex, with a report that Nvidia is halving its Asia buyer list amid the China crackdown adding to the AI-hardware unease, while Shein secured approval to list in Hong Kong as soon as August and a Birla unit agreed to buy Shell's India renewable assets.
Today’s main event lands at 14:30 CET: US June CPI, the last inflation print before the 27-28 July FOMC, on a day when the market has already priced in a September Fed hike as close to certain.
Source: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
Consensus looks for headline inflation to fall to 3.8% year on year from 4.2%, with prices down 0.1% on the month as June's gasoline drop unwinds May's energy-driven jump, while core stays firm at 2.9% year on year, well above the 2% target. Ninety minutes later, at 16:00 CET, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gives his first congressional testimony since taking the helm in May, having pledged to scale back forward guidance, making the afternoon a rare double-header of the data and the man who will judge it.
The evening is filled with Fed speakers, ECB’s Lagarde, and BOE’s Bailey. You can read the full report here.
Good luck today!
Good morning,
I hope all is well.
Here are the main market movers and overnight stories:
Asian equities firmed, and industrial metals rallied as a blowout in Chinese trade steadied sentiment, even with the US-Iran standoff keeping a bid under oil on the eve of US CPI and Fed Chair Warsh's first congressional testimony (BBG). Crude held its gains after President Trump reinstated the blockade of Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz and demanded a transit reimbursement, though the advance cooled from the prior session (BBG).
Asia led the recovery. South Korea's Kospi rose 1.16% as SK Hynix rebounded from Monday's record slide, and mainland China's CSI 300 climbed 1.16% after the trade data, with the Nikkei up 0.77% and the Hang Seng 0.26% higher. European futures were the laggards, the DAX off 0.38% and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.41%, while India's Nifty 50 slipped 0.36%. The Vantage view that the AI wave, not oil, drives the medium term found support in the semiconductor bounce.
Central banks are being repriced hawkishly. Fed Governor Waller said the FOMC will need to consider tightening in the near term if this week's core inflation reading comes in hot, citing a core gauge that has risen every month since January, and money markets moved to price roughly even odds of a July hike (BBG). In the Antipodes, the RBNZ's Conway warned that firms are more willing to pass on costs and that sticky inflation risks further hikes, a week after the bank's first increase in three years (WSJ).
In FX, the dollar softened; the Dollar Index was off 0.11% to 101.163 as traders positioned ahead of the CPI (BBG). The yen edged up to 162.277 but held near multi-decade lows after Finance Minister Katayama floated steering more household and pension cash into domestic assets, measures that remain aspirational, and the risk-sensitive antipodeans led gains, the New Zealand dollar up 0.80% and the Australian dollar 0.29% on the hawkish central-bank tilt. The won strengthened 0.45% against the dollar alongside the Kospi's advance, while the rupee, an oil importer, weakened 0.47%.
Bonds rallied, led by Japan. The 10-year Japanese government bond yield fell 5.3 basis points to 2.727%, the day's sharpest move, as JGBs gained across the curve on the Katayama-driven domestic-demand story and a strong long-dated auction; a pension-fund rebalancing could spur sizeable JGB buying, according to sell-side estimates (Nikkei). The US 10-year yield eased 1.0 basis point to 4.614% ahead of the CPI, while the Australian 10-year added 1.3 basis points to 4.902% and Bund futures slipped 0.18%.
Commodities were firm across the board. Copper led, up 1.71% to 6.3885, maybe because of the Chinese export beat, and crude rose 1.20% to 79.08 (Reuters). Precious metals extended their haven bid despite the hawkish repricing, gold up 0.75% to 4,031.16 and silver 1.12%, while natural gas eased 0.69%. Bitcoin firmed 0.71% to 62,708.
The overnight data delivered a genuine upside surprise. China's June exports jumped 27.0% year on year against an 18.2% consensus, with imports up 36.0% versus 24.0% and the surplus widening to $125.62bn from $105.43bn; the beat was led by higher semiconductor prices, however, with export volumes actually contracting and the strong imports likewise flattered by chip prices rather than a genuine demand revival (WSJ). Elsewhere the reads were softer: the UK's BRC retail sales monitor slowed to 1.7% from 3.4%, missing a 2.6% consensus; Japanese final industrial production was revised to just 0.1% on the month; India's June inflation accelerated to 4.38%, above forecasts (CNBC); and New Zealand business confidence rebounded to 8 from -4 while Australia's NAB reading recovered to -5.
On the corporate tape, attention stayed on the chip complex, with a report that Nvidia is halving its Asia buyer list amid the China crackdown adding to the AI-hardware unease, while Shein secured approval to list in Hong Kong as soon as August and a Birla unit agreed to buy Shell's India renewable assets.
Today’s main event lands at 14:30 CET: US June CPI, the last inflation print before the 27-28 July FOMC, on a day when the market has already priced in a September Fed hike as close to certain.
Source: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
Consensus looks for headline inflation to fall to 3.8% year on year from 4.2%, with prices down 0.1% on the month as June's gasoline drop unwinds May's energy-driven jump, while core stays firm at 2.9% year on year, well above the 2% target. Ninety minutes later, at 16:00 CET, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gives his first congressional testimony since taking the helm in May, having pledged to scale back forward guidance, making the afternoon a rare double-header of the data and the man who will judge it.
The evening is filled with Fed speakers, ECB’s Lagarde, and BOE’s Bailey. You can read the full report here.
Good luck today!
Time Stamp: 2026-07-14 07:50:00 CET
Time Stamp: 2026-07-14 07:50:00 CET