Stocks Turn Mixed Before US CPI as the Kospi Reverses and China's Exports Surge
Wednesday, 14 October 2026 — Asian stocks turned mixed and the dollar weakened before today's US consumer price report, after New York Fed President John Williams said he still sees one more rate rise this year but, for now, no need for further tightening in 2027.
· Asian stocks turned mixed and the dollar slipped before today's US CPI after New York Fed President Williams said he sees one more rate rise this year but no need for more in 2027; the Kospi gave up its early rebound.
· China's exports grew far faster than expected in September and producer-price inflation reached its fastest in more than four years, while consumer inflation lagged.
· Oil rose after two vessels were hit in the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian officials said Tehran is using new tactics to keep prices high, and a Houthi missile strike hit Aramco's headquarters.
· The ECB's Wunsch said the bank will probably have to raise rates again, and Lagarde said there are no second-round effects yet and that France's debt is for French fiscal policy to fix.
· Singapore's central bank unexpectedly kept policy unchanged after tightening twice this year, surprising every analyst polled.
· Wall Street's biggest banks opened the earnings season with a mixed set of results: one missed estimates on slower trading, another posted its second-best revenue quarter.
Today's Macro Roadmap: ECB speakers through the morning, Fed Vice Chair Bowman at 11:40 CET, US CPI at 14:30 CET, the Fed's Beige Book at 20:00 CET, and Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, State Street, and BlackRock results before the US open.
Asian stocks turned mixed and the dollar weakened before today's US consumer price report, after New York Fed President John Williams said he still sees one more rate rise this year but, for now, no need for further tightening in 2027 (BBG). MSCI's Asia Pacific index had rebounded from two days of losses that took it to its lowest close since August (BBG), but the Kospi gave up its early gains and fell 0.8% to 5,984, while Nikkei 225 futures rose 0.5% to 68,310 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng 0.2% to 24,390. S&P 500 futures rose 0.1% to 7,867 and Nasdaq 100 futures were little changed at 30,782. China's exports rose 36.3% from a year earlier in September, far above the 25.7% consensus, and producer prices rose 5.0%, the fastest in more than four years (Reuters) (Reuters via Yahoo Finance). Oil rose after two vessels were struck in the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian officials said Tehran is using new tactics against shipping to keep oil prices high before the US midterm elections (Reuters).
In stocks, the early gains faded after ASML said it cannot fully meet demand for the next two years while raising the low end of its 2026 sales forecast, and Nasdaq 100 and European futures pared their advance (BBG). The CSI 300 fell 1.0% to 4,235 and is more than 15% below its June peak, as scepticism grows about the prospect of heavy support measures for the economy (BBG). India's Nifty 50 was little changed at 22,725, and Australian stocks fell 0.5%. Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 0.2% to 6,198 and DAX futures 0.4% to 25,480. VIX futures rose 0.63 points to 17.47.
Regarding the Fed, Williams told Bloomberg News that he expects inflation to slow "quite a bit" towards 2% next year as the effects of tariffs and the energy shock fade, that the labour market is not adding to inflation, and that the real neutral rate is 1% or a little above (BBG). Boston Fed President Susan Collins said it will likely be appropriate to raise rates a bit further before the end of the year, while giving almost equal weight to scenarios in which an AI investment boom overheats the labour market or energy and tariff pressures persist (BBG). Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said it is clear that inflation is "enduring" (LS).
In Europe, ECB Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch said the ECB will probably have to raise rates again with inflation approaching 4%, though he would not say whether in October or December (BBG). President Christine Lagarde said energy-driven inflation has not yet produced second-round effects but the ECB cannot wait until they are in full view, and that France's debt problem should be solved first through French fiscal policy, which damped speculation about ECB purchases of French bonds (BBG) (Reuters). Bank of France Governor Emmanuel Moulin said the rise in yields is putting pressure on financial conditions and could lead to a more moderate response to the inflation shock (BBG). ECB chief economist Philip Lane said the increase in long-term rates constitutes a material tightening that is relevant for the policy stance (LS). Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said forward guidance went too far and that the longer the inflation hit goes on, the harder it gets (LS).
In Asia, the Monetary Authority of Singapore kept its policy settings unchanged, against the expectations of all 10 analysts polled by Reuters, and narrowed its core inflation forecast for this year to 1.5% to 2% from 1.5% to 2.5% (CNA). It keeps the Singapore dollar's trade-weighted band appreciating, the lever the MAS uses instead of interest rates because imports make up almost 40 cents of every dollar spent domestically (Reuters via Yahoo Finance). In Australia, economists at a US bank said the Reserve Bank's September minutes sent a more hawkish signal than the press conference and lowered the bar for a rise in November, although they still expect the cash rate to stay at 4.60% (Binance Square).
In currencies, the dollar index fell 0.1% to 102.13. The dollar slid yesterday after remarks from Williams and Governor Christopher Waller that were read as dovish, and the focus now turns to CPI and the Fed speakers (Reuters). The euro rose 0.1% to 1.1205 dollars and sterling 0.1% to 1.327 dollars. The yen was little changed at 158.32 per dollar, and the Swiss franc at 0.8322 per dollar. The Australian dollar rose 0.2% to 0.6997 after the Chinese trade data, and the New Zealand dollar 0.1% to 0.562. The offshore yuan was little changed at 6.6927 per dollar after the People's Bank of China set its reference rate weaker than estimated (LS). South Korea's won rose 0.1% to 1,338.98 per dollar, and India's rupee rose 0.4% to 94.9125 per dollar.
In bonds, Treasuries held yesterday's gains. The ten-year yield fell 1.5 basis points to 5.20%, the five-year 1.4 basis points to 4.99%, and the thirty-year 0.8 basis points to 5.56%. Japan's ten-year yield was little changed at 3.00%, and Australia's fell 1.2 basis points to 5.32%. Bund futures rose 0.1% to 121.16, and OAT futures 0.1%. Strategists at a large US bank said the selloff in Skydance's new high-grade bonds left new issues trailing the investment-grade index by 27 basis points over ten days, the widest gap since the pandemic, which helps explain why issuance fell short of expectations last week (BBG). Harley Bassman warned that the delivery mechanics of Treasury futures could amplify the selloff, and that a 20-year yield above 6%, from about 5.6% now, would be a "nightmare scenario" (BBG). Ray Dalio wrote that the bond bear market "probably has a long way to go", with about 10 trillion dollars of maturing US debt to roll over this year and 2.1 trillion dollars of new borrowing (BBG). At the IMF meetings in Bangkok, Kristalina Georgieva said the US needs fiscal adjustments to put its debt on a sustainable path (Reuters).
In commodities, WTI rose 0.5% to 94.65 dollars a barrel, and Brent was little changed at 108.39 dollars. A container ship and a tanker were hit by unknown projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz, UKMTO said, and two senior Iranian officials told Reuters that Iran began using new offensive tactics about 10 days ago and plans to extend its operations to the Gulf of Oman (Reuters). Saudi Aramco's executive headquarters in Dhahran was hit during a Houthi missile attack, causing a limited fire and no injuries, the energy ministry said (BBG). Houthi militants are attempting to build a version of Iran's Kheibar Shekan missile, with a range of about 1,200 miles, using parts from a Chinese supplier, according to a Conflict Armament Research report seen by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ). President Donald Trump said at a rally in Alaska that the US is "going to strike Iran hard", and N12 reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed renewing the war before the US midterms with Trump last week (N12). OPEC raised its forecast for oil demand growth in 2027, citing restocking, cut its 2026 forecast for a sixth time, and reported a sharp rise in OPEC+ output in September led by Saudi Arabia (Investing.com). China's state refiners are expected to add about 400,000 barrels a day to inventories from November to April, Eurasia Group said (BBG). One bank raised its Brent forecast to 105 dollars a barrel for the fourth quarter, arguing that costly freight favours short-haul crude (PrimeXBT). Gold fell 0.3% to 4,150 dollars an ounce before the inflation data (Reuters). Silver fell 0.9% to 58.65 dollars, and copper rose 0.4% to 6.76 dollars a pound. Natural gas rose 1.0% to 3.316 dollars. Bitcoin rose 0.4% to 83,380 dollars and Ether 0.2% to 2,501 dollars.
In geopolitics, the Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia in recent days have killed at least 18 people (BBG). Ukraine said it has sent proposals for further talks to US envoys and is ready to meet in the coming days, and President Zelenskyy said a Russian missile struck a Kyiv power plant (LS).
In corporate news, JPMorgan's third-quarter profit of 15.31 billion dollars missed estimates as markets and investment banking slowed, Goldman Sachs posted its second-best quarterly revenue ever, Wells Fargo's profit rose 6% with revenue short of estimates, and Citigroup's profit jumped 40% (WSJ). Anthropic plans to disclose its third-quarter financials to institutional investors today as it prepares for what could be the largest IPO in history (CNBC). ASML said its supply for 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet demand (LS). Bank of America said its results will include a non-tax-deductible charge, and Microsoft rose to its first record since October 2025 (LS).
In other news, this article caught my eye: Explainer: how Singapore's unique monetary policy works (Reuters via Yahoo Finance). The MAS steers the trade-weighted exchange rate within an undisclosed band whose slope, level and width it can adjust, rather than setting an interest rate, and since 2024 it has announced policy every quarter (Reuters via Yahoo Finance).
Data and the day ahead: China's exports rose 36.3% y/y in September, far above the 25.7% consensus and August's 25.0%, and imports rose 31.0% against 25.0% expected, for a trade surplus of 133.53 billion dollars, the fastest export growth since February (Reuters). A vice customs minister said the current export picture has not changed for the fourth quarter (LS). Producer prices rose 5.0% y/y from 3.8%, above the 4.4% consensus, while consumer prices rose 0.9% against 1.0% expected, with gasoline up 16.6% from a year earlier and core inflation steady at 1.0% (Reuters via Yahoo Finance). Australia's Westpac leading index fell 0.1% m/m in September. Still to come: ECB Executive Board member Frank Elderson speaks at 10:00 CET, Supervisory Board Chair Claudia Buch at 10:15 CET, and Lagarde at 10:30 CET, with Banco de España Governor Escrivá and Central Bank of Ireland Governor Makhlouf at 11:20 CET. The IEA's oil market report is due at 11:00 CET. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speaks at 11:40 CET. US CPI at 14:30 CET is the main event, where consensus looks for the headline to rise 0.6% m/m from 0.4% and 3.6% y/y from 3.4%, and the core 0.2% m/m from 0.3% and 2.5% y/y from 2.4%. Economists expect gasoline to drive the headline and a partial reversal of August's jump in wireless charges to hold the core (LS). Canada's building permits follow at 14:30 CET, with consensus at 3.0% m/m from -17.3%. ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel speaks at 18:15 CET, Barkin at 19:30 CET, and the Fed publishes its Beige Book at 20:00 CET. Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, State Street, and BlackRock report before the US open.
Time Stamp: 14 October 2026, 08:00 CET