Tomorrow's Macro Roadmap: BOJ minutes / AU CPI / RBA, ECB, BOJ, BOC & BOE speak / Japan services PPI /DE IFO / SNB quarterly bulletin / Fed bank stress test
Australia's monthly CPI (03:30 CET) is the headline release for the RBA, German Ifo (10:00) the key euro-area read, with the Bank of Canada's Summary of Deliberations (19:30 CET), the BOJ minutes (01:50 CET) and the Fed's annual bank stress-test results (22:00 CET) the main central-bank items. Second-tier: US new home sales, the US Q1 current account, final May building permits, and the Riksbank's June minutes.
01:50 CET — BoJ Summary of Opinions (June meeting)
The Bank of Japan publishes the Summary of Opinions from its 15–16 June meeting at 01:50 CET — the account of the meeting at which it raised the policy rate to 1.00%. Analysts expect the next hike around October. The interest in the Summary is the board's split over how close inflation is to the target. Some members argue the 2% goal is effectively met, while the leadership sees it reached between late FY2026 and early FY2027 and frames the current moves as policy adjustments toward neutral.
01:50 CET — Japan Corporate Services PPI (CSPI, May)
Japan's Corporate Services Price Index — the BoJ's gauge of services producer prices — rose 3.0% year-on-year in April. Consensus looks for 3.3% in May. A services-inflation pass-through gauge that feeds the BoJ's next-hike debate. A firmer print supports the view that services inflation is broadening, consistent with the expected October hike.
03:30 CET — Australia monthly CPI indicator (May)
Australia's monthly CPI indicator ran at 4.2% year-on-year in April, with the trimmed mean — the RBA's preferred core gauge — at 3.4%. Consensus looks for the headline rate to edge up to about 4.4% in May and the trimmed mean to 3.5%. The government's fuel excise cut and lower crude prices could weigh on the May monthly print, according to some analysts, with the excise relief expiring on 30 June. Other market observers, however, point out that construction costs are becoming a key pressure point — consistent with the view that the RBA still has further hikes ahead.
10:00 CET — German Ifo Business Climate (June)
Germany's Ifo Business Climate index stood at 84.9 in May, with the expectations component at 83.8 and current conditions at 86.1. Consensus expects a rise to 85.6 in June, with expectations improving to 85.0 and current conditions to 86.4.
19:30 CET — Bank of Canada Summary of Deliberations (June)
The minutes from the Bank of Canada's June hold are released at 19:30 CET, with the next rate decision due in mid-July, and the May Canada CPI (released on 22 June) is the key input. Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers also speaks earlier in Zurich (~13:15 CET). Many analysts read the Council as set for a long hold through the year. With core measures — the trimmed mean and median CPI — already running at or below 2%, and the economy carrying excess supply, subdued domestic demand and moderating energy prices, they argue the Bank can keep looking through the energy-driven headline spike, the more so as the upside to oil now appears limited after the US–Iran de-escalation. The resulting divergence is striking: the implied gap between the Fed and the BoC by the end of 2026 is the widest since early 2025. A more hawkish minority still carries a baseline of two hikes this year, but concedes that if price pressures stay largely contained to energy and the interim peace deal holds, falling oil would give the Bank scope to delay tightening — even after a firm May inflation print.
Yesterday, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said there's still little evidence that the recent jump in inflation is becoming "generalised," even though headline inflation hit 3.2 per cent in May—its highest level since December 2023—driven largely by gasoline (up 33.2 per cent year-over-year) and food prices. Speaking to reporters in Paris, he attributed most of the price increases to a global oil price shock and noted that core inflation measures (trim and median) didn't move, with the share of CPI components rising faster than 3 per cent near historical averages. He added that a deal to re-open the Strait of Hormuz and a U.S.–Iran ceasefire are pushing oil prices down, reducing inflation risks. Food inflation remains a key concern, however, with grocery prices up 4.3 per cent year-over-year (and roughly 22 per cent since 2022), disproportionately hurting lower-income Canadians. Updated Bank of Canada projections are due in mid-July.Yester