Tomorrow's Macro Roadmap: CAD CPI / ECB’s Lagarde / Swiss sight deposits
In Switzerland, the SNB will release its update on sight deposits for last week at 10:00 CET. They are far from a perfect proxy for SNB interventions in foreign exchange markets and are influenced by other factors, yet they remain worth monitoring. In its latest statement, the central bank said that
"in view of international developments, we are increasingly prepared to intervene in the foreign exchange market. We stand ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market to curb a rapid and excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc, which would jeopardise price stability."
The main macro event will be the Canadian CPI for March at 14:30 CET, where headline inflation is forecast to jump to 2.5–2.6% y/y from 1.8%, driven almost entirely by Iran-war-linked gasoline prices, up around 21% on the month. Major Canadian banks agree that the Bank of Canada will look through the energy shock, with the April 29 policy decision expected to keep the rate on hold at 2.25%. Scotiabank warns April CPI could push to 2.9–3.0% y/y, with a growing risk of broader pass-through.
Later in the North American session, the BoC Business Outlook Survey will be released at 16:30 CET , though analysts caution that both were compiled largely pre-Iran-conflict.
In Europe, ECB President Lagarde delivers a keynote at the Association of German Banks' 75th Anniversary reception in Berlin at 18:40 CET. She speaks ahead of the 30 April ECB Governing Council meeting. Governing Council members Schnabel, Lane, Nagel and Villeroy have all signalled greater caution in recent weeks.
In Asia, the PBoC 1Y and 5Y Loan Prime Rates are expected to remain unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively. Secondary releases — Germany PPI, Euro Area Construction Output, Japan Tertiary Industry Index, NZ Trade, and UK Rightmove — carry limited market impact.