Tomorrow's Macro Roadmap: CH KOF & sight deposits / DE regional & national CPIs / EZ consumer confidence / Fed’s Powell & Williams

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In Switzerland, the SNB will release its update on sight deposits for last week at 10:00 CET. They are far from a perfect proxy for SNB interventions in foreign exchange markets and are influenced by other factors, yet they remain worth monitoring. In its latest statement, the central bank said that

"in view of international developments, we are increasingly prepared to intervene in the foreign exchange market. We stand ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market to curb a rapid and excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc, which would jeopardise price stability."

For the Swiss KOF, consensus expects a decline to 101-102 from 104.2 in February. Given the energy shock's impact on European confidence surveys, analysts say downside risks are elevated. Switzerland's relative energy independence provides some buffer, but the broader European slowdown will weigh on the export-oriented economy.

In Germany, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is scheduled for release at 14:00 CET. Prior to this, regional survey results will be published throughout the morning, providing early indications of the national series' direction. This print is critical as a lead indicator for Tuesday's Euro area flash HICP.

Powell speaks on Monday — his first public remarks since the FOMC press conference on March 18, where the Fed held rates at 3.50-3.75% and the dot plot signalled one cut in 2026 and one in 2027. Powell has maintained a deliberately cautious tone through the energy crisis. At the March 18 FOMC presser, he acknowledged that inflation progress has been "not as much as we had hoped" and raised the 2026 PCE projection to 2.7%. On the oil shock, he noted the net effect would be "some downward pressure on spending and employment and upward pressure on inflation," but highlighted that the US is a net energy exporter, which provides a partial offset. The Committee's first response will be to "try to look through the shock." He noted at Brookings on March 26 that inflation progress has been slower than hoped. Markets will watch closely for any shift in tone on the energy shock's implications for the dual mandate.