Tomorrow's Macro Roadmap: China CPI, Swiss consumer confidence & sight deposits, US inflation expectations, ECB speak
Today’s data calendar is pretty light with no major releases.
We get the CPI report from China overnight. Consensus expects CPI at +0.8% yoy (from 0.2%). Some analysts see upside risks driven by the late Lunar New Year effects on food prices. PPI is forecast at -1.1% yoy. The bounce is largely seasonal — the real test comes in March when base effects fade, according to analysts.
In Switzerland, the SNB will release its update on sight deposits for last week at 10:00 CET. They are far from a perfect proxy for SNB interventions in foreign exchange markets and are influenced by other factors, yet they remain worth monitoring. In its latest statement, the central bank reiterated its willingness to intervene as necessary. Swiss National Bank Vice-President Antoine Martin said last week the central bank’s willingness to intervene to stem gains in the franc has risen amid fallout in global markets from the US war in Iran. “Our willingness to intervene, our readiness to intervene, is higher given the recent political event,” Martin said at a press conference on new Swiss banknotes. The remarks reiterated a surprise statement earlier in the week in which the SNB threatened currency interventions. Martin didn’t comment further on the exchange rate. (SwissInfo)
In the US, the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations for February arrives late in the day. Prior reading was 3.1%. Given the oil price surge and Middle East headlines, there is clear upside risk to inflation expectations.
On the policy maker front, ECB’s Elderson speaks at 11:30 CET at the NGFS annual plenary hosted by the South African Reserve Bank in Pretoria. The topic is climate and nature-related financial risk — this is Elderson’s core portfolio as ECB Supervisory Board Vice-Chair. Given the supervisory focus, direct monetary policy signals are unlikely. However, any comments on energy transition risks or financial stability implications of the oil shock could be market-relevant. The ECB enters its quiet period on Thursday ahead of the March 19 rate decision.