Tomorrow’s Macro Roadmap: DE Factory Orders / Swiss Unemployment / EZ Retail Sales / Canada BOC Survey / ECB Schnabel & Lagarde / Fed’s Waller /BOE’s Mann

Roadmap · By Dr Günter Grimm · 5 July 2026

Overview — the day at a glance

Markets return from the US Independence Day weekend to a European-led Monday: German factory orders open at 08:00 CET, Swiss unemployment follows at 09:00, construction PMIs and Sentix investor confidence fill the mid-morning, and the euro-area double release of May retail sales and producer prices lands at 11:00. The afternoon belongs to North America — the final S&P Global services PMI at 15:45 CET and the ISM services survey at 16:00 are the session's data pivot, with the Bank of Canada's two pre-decision surveys at 16:30 the main event for the loonie ahead of the 15 July meeting. The evening carries an unusually crowded central-bank slate: an ECB-hosted policy panel in Rome brings Fed Governor Waller and ECB board member Schnabel together at 17:00 CET, President Lagarde appears in Paris at 18:00, the Bank of England's Catherine Mann speaks in Newcastle at 18:45, and a Philip Lane text closes the day at 20:30.

Germany's May factory orders open the week at 08:00 CET. Consensus looks for a 1.2% monthly rebound after April's 3.8% decline, which itself followed a 4.5% jump in March. Some analysts broadly read through the month-to-month noise: orders have been on an upward trend since the middle of last year, helped by domestic demand and a strong fiscal impulse, and the resolution of the Middle East conflict is expected to support sentiment and, in turn, orders — though private investment has so far remained modest despite the fiscal boost. Others describe the series as volatile but recently trendless, with the week's German focus split between Monday's orders and the industrial-production and trade figures later in the week.

Swiss unemployment for June is released at 09:00 CET, with consensus at 3.0%, unchanged from May.

The SNB will release its update on sight deposits for last week at 10:00 CET. They are far from a perfect proxy for SNB interventions in foreign exchange markets and are influenced by other factors, yet they remain worth monitoring. In its latest statement, the central bank said that

"in view of international developments, we are increasingly prepared to intervene in the foreign exchange market. We stand ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market to curb a rapid and excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc, which would jeopardise price stability."

Mid-morning brings June construction PMIs (euro area 09:30 CET, prior 43.7; Germany 42.4; France 39.6; Italy 49.4; the UK follows at 10:30, prior 38.2 with consensus at 40.1) and July's Sentix investor-confidence survey at 10:30 CET, where the prior stands at −13.4 and the calendar carries no published consensus. The Sentix release is the first sentiment reading collected wholly after the US-Iran de-escalation; observers expect the better geopolitical news to support a recovery, with bank calendars carrying expectations around −9.

In the euro-area, the retail sales report will be released at 11:00 CET. Consensus stands at +0.2% on the month and +1.5% on the year, after −0.4% and +1.0%. A rebound near consensus would leave sales through May above the prior three months at an annualised pace, despite the quarter's significant income shock — driven partly by Germany, where government measures to mitigate energy prices took effect, and May sales rose 1.1% on the month, partially offset by a modest contraction in France

Overview — the day at a glance

Markets return from the US Independence Day weekend to a European-led Monday: German factory orders open at 08:00 CET, Swiss unemployment follows at 09:00, construction PMIs and Sentix investor confidence fill the mid-morning, and the euro-area double release of May retail sales and producer prices lands at 11:00. The afternoon belongs to North America — the final S&P Global services PMI at 15:45 CET and the ISM services survey at 16:00 are the session's data pivot, with the Bank of Canada's two pre-decision surveys at 16:30 the main event for the loonie ahead of the 15 July meeting. The evening carries an unusually crowded central-bank slate: an ECB-hosted policy panel in Rome brings Fed Governor Waller and ECB board member Schnabel together at 17:00 CET, President Lagarde appears in Paris at 18:00, the Bank of England's Catherine Mann speaks in Newcastle at 18:45, and a Philip Lane text closes the day at 20:30.

Germany's May factory orders open the week at 08:00 CET. Consensus looks for a 1.2% monthly rebound after April's 3.8% decline, which itself followed a 4.5% jump in March. Some analysts broadly read through the month-to-month noise: orders have been on an upward trend since the middle of last year, helped by domestic demand and a strong fiscal impulse, and the resolution of the Middle East conflict is expected to support sentiment and, in turn, orders — though private investment has so far remained modest despite the fiscal boost. Others describe the series as volatile but recently trendless, with the week's German focus split between Monday's orders and the industrial-production and trade figures later in the week.

Swiss unemployment for June is released at 09:00 CET, with consensus at 3.0%, unchanged from May.

The SNB will release its update on sight deposits for last week at 10:00 CET. They are far from a perfect proxy for SNB interventions in foreign exchange markets and are influenced by other factors, yet they remain worth monitoring. In its latest statement, the central bank said that

"in view of international developments, we are increasingly prepared to intervene in the foreign exchange market. We stand ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market to curb a rapid and excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc, which would jeopardise price stability."

Mid-morning brings June construction PMIs (euro area 09:30 CET, prior 43.7; Germany 42.4; France 39.6; Italy 49.4; the UK follows at 10:30, prior 38.2 with consensus at 40.1) and July's Sentix investor-confidence survey at 10:30 CET, where the prior stands at −13.4 and the calendar carries no published consensus. The Sentix release is the first sentiment reading collected wholly after the US-Iran de-escalation; observers expect the better geopolitical news to support a recovery, with bank calendars carrying expectations around −9.

In the euro-area, the retail sales report will be released at 11:00 CET. Consensus stands at +0.2% on the month and +1.5% on the year, after −0.4% and +1.0%. A rebound near consensus would leave sales through May above the prior three months at an annualised pace, despite the quarter's significant income shock — driven partly by Germany, where government measures to mitigate energy prices took effect, and May sales rose 1.1% on the month, partially offset by a modest contraction in France. Analysts read employment gains as the reason spending has held up.

The US afternoon builds to the ISM services survey at 16:00 CET, with consensus at 54.2 after May's 54.5. The sub-indices carry the story: business activity enters at 57.7, new orders at 57.3, employment at 47.9 — still contractionary — and prices at 71.3, a cycle high. The final S&P Global services PMI prints fifteen minutes earlier (flash 51.3, after 50.7).

Editor's Note: Consensus at 54.2 prices in stability. A fall in prices paid toward the mid-60s from 71.3, alongside a steady composite, is the Goldilocks print — it validates the transitory-supply-shock read that the July doves need before the 14 July CPI. The hawkish tail is a composite in the mid-55s with prices holding above 70: that combination could revive the September-hike pricing that soft payrolls just took out. Also, watch out for the employment component if it stays in contractionary territory.

Canada's quarterly pre-decision surveys — the Business Outlook Survey and the Survey of Consumer Expectations — land at 16:30 CET, following the S&P Global Canada PMIs at 15:30 (composite prior 50.8, services 50.6). Analysts expect the surveys to show further increases in inflation expectations, with the consumer readings already at or above the top of the central bank's 1–3% target range across all time horizons in the first quarter, and business measures at the upper end of the range. The survey's two-year-ahead expectations gauge is seen as having catching up to do against the BoC's slightly fresher Business Leaders' Pulse measure.

Rounding out the session: the US Treasury sells 3- and 6-month bills at 17:30 CET (prior stops 3.74% and 3.84%) — the first supply of a holiday-shortened week with no cash-market dislocations expected — and Australia's TD-MI inflation gauge (prior −0.3% m/m), New Zealand's ANZ commodity prices (prior +0.7%) and Australian job ads (prior +1.8%) print overnight before Europe opens.

ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel chairs a policy panel at 17:00 CET at the closing conference of the ESCB's ChaMP research network in Rome, with Fed Governor Christopher Waller, the NBB's Pierre Wunsch and the Riksbank's Anna Seim as participants. As chair, Schnabel is not scheduled to deliver a text. Her most recent remarks came at the Petersberger Summer Dialogue on 27 June, where she said food, goods and services inflation are 'facing upside risks', that the 'energy price shock can feed into broader inflationary dynamics', and that the US-Iran truce does not justify relaxing the monetary stance.

Waller's most recent speech is the 22 May Frankfurt School lecture 'Policy Risks Have Changed'. In cached late-May remarks, he said he would support a hike if inflation expectations de-anchor.

Editor's Note: Waller is the one FOMC voter speaking between payrolls and Wednesday's minutes — any Q&A comment on whether the soft jobs report changes the hike calculus is the headline risk of the evening.

ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in an on-stage conversation at 18:00 CET at the 15th-anniversary event of Financi'Elles in Paris — a professional-network occasion, not a policy venue. Her most recent policy statement is the Sintra opening speech 'Back to basics in an uncertain environment' (29 June): the ECB has returned to rates as the primary tool with 'measured' adjustments, moved off the lower bound on the back of defence spending and supply shocks rather than demand, and she argued reaction-function guidance plus scenario analysis now serve better than forward guidance, justifying the June increase by projections showing inflation above 2% through 2027 without action. At Sintra, she also described inflation and growth risks as 'probably more broadly balanced'. Separately, she told an interviewer last week she cannot rule out departing the ECB before her term ends.

Bank of England MPC external member Catherine Mann speaks at 18:45 CET in Newcastle. At a Natixis event on 2 July she said the loosening of financial conditions since the June meeting 'will be an important consideration' for her end-of-July vote, noting markets no longer fully price a Bank Rate increase this year; she advocated decisive over incremental moves — 'If you're going to move, move big' — having voted with the 7-2 majority to hold at 3.75% in June. She flagged record household inflation expectations and said data outturns in the second half, especially one-year-ahead expectations and the read-through to 2027 wage negotiations, are 'particularly important' for her future decisions.

The day closes with a Philip Lane dinner speech at 20:30 CET at the ChaMP conference in Rome — with one wrinkle the ECB's own calendar discloses: the text will be delivered by Philipp Hartmann, the ECB's Deputy Director General Economics, not by the chief economist in person. Lane's most recent public remarks came in a 30 June Bloomberg TV interview: knock-on effects from higher energy prices 'will take a while to show up', and the Governing Council is committed to 'not boxing ourselves in' on the rate path, without ruling out another increase. On 16 June, he presented the staff-consistent inflation path of 3.0% for 2026, easing to 2.3% in 2027 and 2.0% in 2028, and noted that the upper end of the ECB's estimated neutral-rate range has risen by 25bp to 2.50%.

Overview — the day at a glance

Markets return from the US Independence Day weekend to a European-led Monday: German factory orders open at 08:00 CET, Swiss unemployment follows at 09:00, construction PMIs and Sentix investor confidence fill the mid-morning, and the euro-area double release of May retail sales and producer prices lands at 11:00. The afternoon belongs to North America — the final S&P Global services PMI at 15:45 CET and the ISM services survey at 16:00 are the session's data pivot, with the Bank of Canada's two pre-decision surveys at 16:30 the main event for the loonie ahead of the 15 July meeting. The evening carries an unusually crowded central-bank slate: an ECB-hosted policy panel in Rome brings Fed Governor Waller and ECB board member Schnabel together at 17:00 CET, President Lagarde appears in Paris at 18:00, the Bank of England's Catherine Mann speaks in Newcastle at 18:45, and a Philip Lane text closes the day at 20:30.

Germany's May factory orders open the week at 08:00 CET. Consensus looks for a 1.2% monthly rebound after April's 3.8% decline, which itself followed a 4.5% jump in March. Some analysts broadly read through the month-to-month noise: orders have been on an upward trend since the middle of last year, helped by domestic demand and a strong fiscal impulse, and the resolution of the Middle East conflict is expected to support sentiment and, in turn, orders — though private investment has so far remained modest despite the fiscal boost. Others describe the series as volatile but recently trendless, with the week's German focus split between Monday's orders and the industrial-production and trade figures later in the week.

Swiss unemployment for June is released at 09:00 CET, with consensus at 3.0%, unchanged from May.

The SNB will release its update on sight deposits for last week at 10:00 CET. They are far from a perfect proxy for SNB interventions in foreign exchange markets and are influenced by other factors, yet they remain worth monitoring. In its latest statement, the central bank said that

"in view of international developments, we are increasingly prepared to intervene in the foreign exchange market. We stand ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market to curb a rapid and excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc, which would jeopardise price stability."

Mid-morning brings June construction PMIs (euro area 09:30 CET, prior 43.7; Germany 42.4; France 39.6; Italy 49.4; the UK follows at 10:30, prior 38.2 with consensus at 40.1) and July's Sentix investor-confidence survey at 10:30 CET, where the prior stands at −13.4 and the calendar carries no published consensus. The Sentix release is the first sentiment reading collected wholly after the US-Iran de-escalation; observers expect the better geopolitical news to support a recovery, with bank calendars carrying expectations around −9.

In the euro-area, the retail sales report will be released at 11:00 CET. Consensus stands at +0.2% on the month and +1.5% on the year, after −0.4% and +1.0%. A rebound near consensus would leave sales through May above the prior three months at an annualised pace despite the quarter's significant income shock — driven partly by Germany, where government measures to mitigate energy prices took effect and May sales rose 1.1% on the month, partially offset by a modest French contraction. Analysts read employment gains as the reason spending has held up.

The US afternoon builds to the ISM services survey at 16:00 CET, with consensus at 54.2 after May's 54.5. The sub-indices carry the story: business activity enters at 57.7, new orders at 57.3, employment at 47.9 — still contractionary — and prices at 71.3, a cycle high. The final S&P Global services PMI prints fifteen minutes earlier (flash 51.3, after 50.7).

The central expectation is a modest slip that stays comfortably expansionary — consistent. One house argues, with GDP growth a little above 2% — while the surveys' inflation signal is expected to ease as the Middle East premium fades: several analysts flag the prices component as the number to watch, with one desk penciling in a fall toward 67.5 and noting the index measures input prices, making it especially sensitive to the commodity move.

Editor's Note: Consensus at 54.2 prices in stability. A fall in prices paid toward the mid-60s from 71.3, alongside a steady composite, is the Goldilocks print — it validates the transitory-supply-shock read that the July doves need before the 14 July CPI. The hawkish tail is a composite in the mid-55s with prices holding above 70: that combination could revive the September-hike pricing that soft payrolls just took out. Also, watch out for the employment component if it stays in contractionary territory.

Canada's quarterly pre-decision surveys — the Business Outlook Survey and the Survey of Consumer Expectations — land at 16:30 CET, following the S&P Global Canada PMIs at 15:30 (composite prior 50.8, services 50.6). Analysts expect the surveys to show further increases in inflation expectations, with the consumer readings already at or above the top of the central bank's 1–3% target range across all time horizons in the first quarter, and business measures at the upper end of the range. The survey's two-year-ahead expectations gauge is seen as having catching up to do against the BoC's slightly fresher Business Leaders' Pulse measure.

Rounding out the session: the US Treasury sells 3- and 6-month bills at 17:30 CET (prior stops 3.74% and 3.84%) — the first supply of a holiday-shortened week with no cash-market dislocations expected — and Australia's TD-MI inflation gauge (prior −0.3% m/m), New Zealand's ANZ commodity prices (prior +0.7%) and Australian job ads (prior +1.8%) print overnight before Europe opens.

ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel chairs a policy panel at 17:00 CET at the closing conference of the ESCB's ChaMP research network in Rome, with Fed Governor Christopher Waller, the NBB's Pierre Wunsch and the Riksbank's Anna Seim as participants. As chair, Schnabel is not scheduled to deliver a text. Her most recent remarks came at the Petersberger Summer Dialogue on 27 June, where she said food, goods and services inflation are 'facing upside risks', that the 'energy price shock can feed into broader inflationary dynamics', and that the US-Iran truce does not justify relaxing the monetary stance.

Waller's most recent speech is the 22 May Frankfurt School lecture 'Policy Risks Have Changed'. In cached late-May remarks, he said he would support a hike if inflation expectations de-anchor.

Editor's Note: Waller is the one FOMC voter speaking between payrolls and Wednesday's minutes — any Q&A comment on whether the soft jobs report changes the hike calculus is the headline risk of the evening.

ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in an on-stage conversation at 18:00 CET at the 15th-anniversary event of Financi'Elles in Paris — a professional-network occasion, not a policy venue. Her most recent policy statement is the Sintra opening speech 'Back to basics in an uncertain environment' (29 June): the ECB has returned to rates as the primary tool with 'measured' adjustments, moved off the lower bound on the back of defence spending and supply shocks rather than demand, and she argued reaction-function guidance plus scenario analysis now serve better than forward guidance, justifying the June increase by projections showing inflation above 2% through 2027 without action. At Sintra, she also described inflation and growth risks as 'probably more broadly balanced'. Separately, she told an interviewer last week she cannot rule out departing the ECB before her term ends.

Bank of England MPC external member Catherine Mann speaks at 18:45 CET in Newcastle. At a Natixis event on 2 July she said the loosening of financial conditions since the June meeting 'will be an important consideration' for her end-of-July vote, noting markets no longer fully price a Bank Rate increase this year; she advocated decisive over incremental moves — 'If you're going to move, move big' — having voted with the 7-2 majority to hold at 3.75% in June. She flagged record household inflation expectations and said data outturns in the second half, especially one-year-ahead expectations and the read-through to 2027 wage negotiations, are 'particularly important' for her future decisions.

The day closes with a Philip Lane dinner speech at 20:30 CET at the ChaMP conference in Rome — with one wrinkle the ECB's own calendar discloses: the text will be delivered by Philipp Hartmann, the ECB's Deputy Director General Economics, not by the chief economist in person. Lane's most recent public remarks came in a 30 June Bloomberg TV interview: knock-on effects from higher energy prices 'will take a while to show up', and the Governing Council is committed to 'not boxing ourselves in' on the rate path, without ruling out another increase. On 16 June, he presented the staff-consistent inflation path of 3.0% for 2026, easing to 2.3% in 2027 and 2.0% in 2028, and noted that the upper end of the ECB's estimated neutral-rate range has risen by 25bp to 2.50%.

Overview — the day at a glance

Markets return from the US Independence Day weekend to a European-led Monday: German factory orders open at 08:00 CET, Swiss unemployment follows at 09:00, construction PMIs and Sentix investor confidence fill the mid-morning, and the euro-area double release of May retail sales and producer prices lands at 11:00. The afternoon belongs to North America — the final S&P Global services PMI at 15:45 CET and the ISM services survey at 16:00 are the session's data pivot, with the Bank of Canada's two pre-decision surveys at 16:30 the main event for the loonie ahead of the 15 July meeting. The evening carries an unusually crowded central-bank slate: an ECB-hosted policy panel in Rome brings Fed Governor Waller and ECB board member Schnabel together at 17:00 CET, President Lagarde appears in Paris at 18:00, the Bank of England's Catherine Mann speaks in Newcastle at 18:45, and a Philip Lane text closes the day at 20:30.

Germany's May factory orders open the week at 08:00 CET. Consensus looks for a 1.2% monthly rebound after April's 3.8% decline, which itself followed a 4.5% jump in March. Some analysts broadly read through the month-to-month noise: orders have been on an upward trend since the middle of last year, helped by domestic demand and a strong fiscal impulse, and the resolution of the Middle East conflict is expected to support sentiment and, in turn, orders — though private investment has so far remained modest despite the fiscal boost. Others describe the series as volatile but recently trendless, with the week's German focus split between Monday's orders and the industrial-production and trade figures later in the week.

Swiss unemployment for June is released at 09:00 CET, with consensus at 3.0%, unchanged from May.

The SNB will release its update on sight deposits for last week at 10:00 CET. They are far from a perfect proxy for SNB interventions in foreign exchange markets and are influenced by other factors, yet they remain worth monitoring. In its latest statement, the central bank said that

"in view of international developments, we are increasingly prepared to intervene in the foreign exchange market. We stand ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market to curb a rapid and excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc, which would jeopardise price stability."

Mid-morning brings June construction PMIs (euro area 09:30 CET, prior 43.7; Germany 42.4; France 39.6; Italy 49.4; the UK follows at 10:30, prior 38.2 with consensus at 40.1) and July's Sentix investor-confidence survey at 10:30 CET, where the prior stands at −13.4 and the calendar carries no published consensus. The Sentix release is the first sentiment reading collected wholly after the US-Iran de-escalation; observers expect the better geopolitical news to support a recovery, with bank calendars carrying expectations around −9.

In the euro-area, the retail sales report will be released at 11:00 CET. Consensus stands at +0.2% on the month and +1.5% on the year, after −0.4% and +1.0%. A rebound near consensus would leave sales through May above the prior three months at an annualised pace despite the quarter's significant income shock — driven partly by Germany, where government measures to mitigate energy prices took effect and May sales rose 1.1% on the month, partially offset by a modest French contraction. Analysts read employment gains as the reason spending has held up.

The US afternoon builds to the ISM services survey at 16:00 CET, with consensus at 54.2 after May's 54.5. The sub-indices carry the story: business activity enters at 57.7, new orders at 57.3, employment at 47.9 — still contractionary — and prices at 71.3, a cycle high. The final S&P Global services PMI prints fifteen minutes earlier (flash 51.3, after 50.7).

The central expectation is a modest slip that stays comfortably expansionary — consistent. One house argues, with GDP growth a little above 2% — while the surveys' inflation signal is expected to ease as the Middle East premium fades: several analysts flag the prices component as the number to watch, with one desk penciling in a fall toward 67.5 and noting the index measures input prices, making it especially sensitive to the commodity move.

Editor's Note: Consensus at 54.2 prices in stability. A fall in prices paid toward the mid-60s from 71.3, alongside a steady composite, is the Goldilocks print — it validates the transitory-supply-shock read that the July doves need before the 14 July CPI. The hawkish tail is a composite in the mid-55s with prices holding above 70: that combination could revive the September-hike pricing that soft payrolls just took out. Also, watch out for the employment component if it stays in contractionary territory.

Canada's quarterly pre-decision surveys — the Business Outlook Survey and the Survey of Consumer Expectations — land at 16:30 CET, following the S&P Global Canada PMIs at 15:30 (composite prior 50.8, services 50.6). Analysts expect the surveys to show further increases in inflation expectations, with the consumer readings already at or above the top of the central bank's 1–3% target range across all time horizons in the first quarter, and business measures at the upper end of the range. The survey's two-year-ahead expectations gauge is seen as having catching up to do against the BoC's slightly fresher Business Leaders' Pulse measure.

Rounding out the session: the US Treasury sells 3- and 6-month bills at 17:30 CET (prior stops 3.74% and 3.84%) — the first supply of a holiday-shortened week with no cash-market dislocations expected — and Australia's TD-MI inflation gauge (prior −0.3% m/m), New Zealand's ANZ commodity prices (prior +0.7%) and Australian job ads (prior +1.8%) print overnight before Europe opens.

ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel chairs a policy panel at 17:00 CET at the closing conference of the ESCB's ChaMP research network in Rome, with Fed Governor Christopher Waller, the NBB's Pierre Wunsch and the Riksbank's Anna Seim as participants. As chair, Schnabel is not scheduled to deliver a text. Her most recent remarks came at the Petersberger Summer Dialogue on 27 June, where she said food, goods and services inflation are 'facing upside risks', that the 'energy price shock can feed into broader inflationary dynamics', and that the US-Iran truce does not justify relaxing the monetary stance.

Waller's most recent speech is the 22 May Frankfurt School lecture 'Policy Risks Have Changed'. In cached late-May remarks, he said he would support a hike if inflation expectations de-anchor.

Editor's Note: Waller is the one FOMC voter speaking between payrolls and Wednesday's minutes — any Q&A comment on whether the soft jobs report changes the hike calculus is the headline risk of the evening.

ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in an on-stage conversation at 18:00 CET at the 15th-anniversary event of Financi'Elles in Paris — a professional-network occasion, not a policy venue. Her most recent policy statement is the Sintra opening speech 'Back to basics in an uncertain environment' (29 June): the ECB has returned to rates as the primary tool with 'measured' adjustments, moved off the lower bound on the back of defence spending and supply shocks rather than demand, and she argued reaction-function guidance plus scenario analysis now serve better than forward guidance, justifying the June increase by projections showing inflation above 2% through 2027 without action. At Sintra, she also described inflation and growth risks as 'probably more broadly balanced'. Separately, she told an interviewer last week she cannot rule out departing the ECB before her term ends.

Bank of England MPC external member Catherine Mann speaks at 18:45 CET in Newcastle. At a Natixis event on 2 July she said the loosening of financial conditions since the June meeting 'will be an important consideration' for her end-of-July vote, noting markets no longer fully price a Bank Rate increase this year; she advocated decisive over incremental moves — 'If you're going to move, move big' — having voted with the 7-2 majority to hold at 3.75% in June. She flagged record household inflation expectations and said data outturns in the second half, especially one-year-ahead expectations and the read-through to 2027 wage negotiations, are 'particularly important' for her future decisions.

The day closes with a Philip Lane dinner speech at 20:30 CET at the ChaMP conference in Rome — with one wrinkle the ECB's own calendar discloses: the text will be delivered by Philipp Hartmann, the ECB's Deputy Director General Economics, not by the chief economist in person. Lane's most recent public remarks came in a 30 June Bloomberg TV interview: knock-on effects from higher energy prices 'will take a while to show up', and the Governing Council is committed to 'not boxing ourselves in' on the rate path, without ruling out another increase. On 16 June, he presented the staff-consistent inflation path of 3.0% for 2026, easing to 2.3% in 2027 and 2.0% in 2028, and noted that the upper end of the ECB's estimated neutral-rate range has risen by 25bp to 2.50%.

Overview — the day at a glance

Markets return from the US Independence Day weekend to a European-led Monday: German factory orders open at 08:00 CET, Swiss unemployment follows at 09:00, construction PMIs and Sentix investor confidence fill the mid-morning, and the euro-area double release of May retail sales and producer prices lands at 11:00. The afternoon belongs to North America — the final S&P Global services PMI at 15:45 CET and the ISM services survey at 16:00 are the session's data pivot, with the Bank of Canada's two pre-decision surveys at 16:30 the main event for the loonie ahead of the 15 July meeting. The evening carries an unusually crowded central-bank slate: an ECB-hosted policy panel in Rome brings Fed Governor Waller and ECB board member Schnabel together at 17:00 CET, President Lagarde appears in Paris at 18:00, the Bank of England's Catherine Mann speaks in Newcastle at 18:45, and a Philip Lane text closes the day at 20:30.

Germany's May factory orders open the week at 08:00 CET. Consensus looks for a 1.2% monthly rebound after April's 3.8% decline, which itself followed a 4.5% jump in March. Some analysts broadly read through the month-to-month noise: orders have been on an upward trend since the middle of last year, helped by domestic demand and a strong fiscal impulse, and the resolution of the Middle East conflict is expected to support sentiment and, in turn, orders — though private investment has so far remained modest despite the fiscal boost. Others describe the series as volatile but recently trendless, with the week's German focus split between Monday's orders and the industrial-production and trade figures later in the week.

Swiss unemployment for June is released at 09:00 CET, with consensus at 3.0%, unchanged from May.

The SNB will release its update on sight deposits for last week at 10:00 CET. They are far from a perfect proxy for SNB interventions in foreign exchange markets and are influenced by other factors, yet they remain worth monitoring. In its latest statement, the central bank said that

"in view of international developments, we are increasingly prepared to intervene in the foreign exchange market. We stand ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market to curb a rapid and excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc, which would jeopardise price stability."

Mid-morning brings June construction PMIs (euro area 09:30 CET, prior 43.7; Germany 42.4; France 39.6; Italy 49.4; the UK follows at 10:30, prior 38.2 with consensus at 40.1) and July's Sentix investor-confidence survey at 10:30 CET, where the prior stands at −13.4 and the calendar carries no published consensus. The Sentix release is the first sentiment reading collected wholly after the US-Iran de-escalation; observers expect the better geopolitical news to support a recovery, with bank calendars carrying expectations around −9.

In the euro-area, the retail sales report will be released at 11:00 CET. Consensus stands at +0.2% on the month and +1.5% on the year, after −0.4% and +1.0%. A rebound near consensus would leave sales through May above the prior three months at an annualised pace despite the quarter's significant income shock — driven partly by Germany, where government measures to mitigate energy prices took effect and May sales rose 1.1% on the month, partially offset by a modest French contraction. Analysts read employment gains as the reason spending has held up.

The US afternoon builds to the ISM services survey at 16:00 CET, with consensus at 54.2 after May's 54.5. The sub-indices carry the story: business activity enters at 57.7, new orders at 57.3, employment at 47.9 — still contractionary — and prices at 71.3, a cycle high. The final S&P Global services PMI prints fifteen minutes earlier (flash 51.3, after 50.7).

The central expectation is a modest slip that stays comfortably expansionary — consistent. One house argues, with GDP growth a little above 2% — while the surveys' inflation signal is expected to ease as the Middle East premium fades: several analysts flag the prices component as the number to watch, with one desk penciling in a fall toward 67.5 and noting the index measures input prices, making it especially sensitive to the commodity move.

Editor's Note: Consensus at 54.2 prices in stability. A fall in prices paid toward the mid-60s from 71.3, alongside a steady composite, is the Goldilocks print — it validates the transitory-supply-shock read that the July doves need before the 14 July CPI. The hawkish tail is a composite in the mid-55s with prices holding above 70: that combination could revive the September-hike pricing that soft payrolls just took out. Also, watch out for the employment component if it stays in contractionary territory.

Canada's quarterly pre-decision surveys — the Business Outlook Survey and the Survey of Consumer Expectations — land at 16:30 CET, following the S&P Global Canada PMIs at 15:30 (composite prior 50.8, services 50.6). Analysts expect the surveys to show further increases in inflation expectations, with the consumer readings already at or above the top of the central bank's 1–3% target range across all time horizons in the first quarter, and business measures at the upper end of the range. The survey's two-year-ahead expectations gauge is seen as having catching up to do against the BoC's slightly fresher Business Leaders' Pulse measure.

Rounding out the session: the US Treasury sells 3- and 6-month bills at 17:30 CET (prior stops 3.74% and 3.84%) — the first supply of a holiday-shortened week with no cash-market dislocations expected — and Australia's TD-MI inflation gauge (prior −0.3% m/m), New Zealand's ANZ commodity prices (prior +0.7%) and Australian job ads (prior +1.8%) print overnight before Europe opens.

ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel chairs a policy panel at 17:00 CET at the closing conference of the ESCB's ChaMP research network in Rome, with Fed Governor Christopher Waller, the NBB's Pierre Wunsch and the Riksbank's Anna Seim as participants. As chair, Schnabel is not scheduled to deliver a text. Her most recent remarks came at the Petersberger Summer Dialogue on 27 June, where she said food, goods and services inflation are 'facing upside risks', that the 'energy price shock can feed into broader inflationary dynamics', and that the US-Iran truce does not justify relaxing the monetary stance.

Waller's most recent speech is the 22 May Frankfurt School lecture 'Policy Risks Have Changed'. In cached late-May remarks, he said he would support a hike if inflation expectations de-anchor.

Editor's Note: Waller is the one FOMC voter speaking between payrolls and Wednesday's minutes — any Q&A comment on whether the soft jobs report changes the hike calculus is the headline risk of the evening.

ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in an on-stage conversation at 18:00 CET at the 15th-anniversary event of Financi'Elles in Paris — a professional-network occasion, not a policy venue. Her most recent policy statement is the Sintra opening speech 'Back to basics in an uncertain environment' (29 June): the ECB has returned to rates as the primary tool with 'measured' adjustments, moved off the lower bound on the back of defence spending and supply shocks rather than demand, and she argued reaction-function guidance plus scenario analysis now serve better than forward guidance, justifying the June increase by projections showing inflation above 2% through 2027 without action. At Sintra, she also described inflation and growth risks as 'probably more broadly balanced'. Separately, she told an interviewer last week she cannot rule out departing the ECB before her term ends.

Bank of England MPC external member Catherine Mann speaks at 18:45 CET in Newcastle. At a Natixis event on 2 July she said the loosening of financial conditions since the June meeting 'will be an important consideration' for her end-of-July vote, noting markets no longer fully price a Bank Rate increase this year; she advocated decisive over incremental moves — 'If you're going to move, move big' — having voted with the 7-2 majority to hold at 3.75% in June. She flagged record household inflation expectations and said data outturns in the second half, especially one-year-ahead expectations and the read-through to 2027 wage negotiations, are 'particularly important' for her future decisions.

The day closes with a Philip Lane dinner speech at 20:30 CET at the ChaMP conference in Rome — with one wrinkle the ECB's own calendar discloses: the text will be delivered by Philipp Hartmann, the ECB's Deputy Director General Economics, not by the chief economist in person. Lane's most recent public remarks came in a 30 June Bloomberg TV interview: knock-on effects from higher energy prices 'will take a while to show up', and the Governing Council is committed to 'not boxing ourselves in' on the rate path, without ruling out another increase. On 16 June, he presented the staff-consistent inflation path of 3.0% for 2026, easing to 2.3% in 2027 and 2.0% in 2028, and noted that the upper end of the ECB's estimated neutral-rate range has risen by 25bp to 2.50%.

. Analysts read employment gains as the reason spending has held up.

The US afternoon builds to the ISM services survey at 16:00 CET, with consensus at 54.2 after May's 54.5. The sub-indices carry the story: business activity enters at 57.7, new orders at 57.3, employment at 47.9 — still contractionary — and prices at 71.3, a cycle high. The final S&P Global services PMI prints fifteen minutes earlier (flash 51.3, after 50.7).

Editor's Note: Consensus at 54.2 prices in stability. A fall in prices paid toward the mid-60s from 71.3, alongside a steady composite, is the Goldilocks print — it validates the transitory-supply-shock read that the July doves need before the 14 July CPI. The hawkish tail is a composite in the mid-55s with prices holding above 70: that combination could revive the September-hike pricing that soft payrolls just took out. Also, watch out for the employment component if it stays in contractionary territory.

Canada's quarterly pre-decision surveys — the Business Outlook Survey and the Survey of Consumer Expectations — land at 16:30 CET, following the S&P Global Canada PMIs at 15:30 (composite prior 50.8, services 50.6). Analysts expect the surveys to show further increases in inflation expectations, with the consumer readings already at or above the top of the central bank's 1–3% target range across all time horizons in the first quarter, and business measures at the upper end of the range. The survey's two-year-ahead expectations gauge is seen as having catching up to do against the BoC's slightly fresher Business Leaders' Pulse measure.

Rounding out the session: the US Treasury sells 3- and 6-month bills at 17:30 CET (prior stops 3.74% and 3.84%) — the first supply of a holiday-shortened week with no cash-market dislocations expected — and Australia's TD-MI inflation gauge (prior −0.3% m/m), New Zealand's ANZ commodity prices (prior +0.7%) and Australian job ads (prior +1.8%) print overnight before Europe opens.

ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel chairs a policy panel at 17:00 CET at the closing conference of the ESCB's ChaMP research network in Rome, with Fed Governor Christopher Waller, the NBB's Pierre Wunsch and the Riksbank's Anna Seim as participants. As chair, Schnabel is not scheduled to deliver a text. Her most recent remarks came at the Petersberger Summer Dialogue on 27 June, where she said food, goods and services inflation are 'facing upside risks', that the 'energy price shock can feed into broader inflationary dynamics', and that the US-Iran truce does not justify relaxing the monetary stance.

Waller's most recent speech is the 22 May Frankfurt School lecture 'Policy Risks Have Changed'. In cached late-May remarks, he said he would support a hike if inflation expectations de-anchor.

Editor's Note: Waller is the one FOMC voter speaking between payrolls and Wednesday's minutes — any Q&A comment on whether the soft jobs report changes the hike calculus is the headline risk of the evening.

ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in an on-stage conversation at 18:00 CET at the 15th-anniversary event of Financi'Elles in Paris — a professional-network occasion, not a policy venue. Her most recent policy statement is the Sintra opening speech 'Back to basics in an uncertain environment' (29 June): the ECB has returned to rates as the primary tool with 'measured' adjustments, moved off the lower bound on the back of defence spending and supply shocks rather than demand, and she argued reaction-function guidance plus scenario analysis now serve better than forward guidance, justifying the June increase by projections showing inflation above 2% through 2027 without action. At Sintra, she also described inflation and growth risks as 'probably more broadly balanced'. Separately, she told an interviewer last week she cannot rule out departing the ECB before her term ends.

Bank of England MPC external member Catherine Mann speaks at 18:45 CET in Newcastle. At a Natixis event on 2 July she said the loosening of financial conditions since the June meeting 'will be an important consideration' for her end-of-July vote, noting markets no longer fully price a Bank Rate increase this year; she advocated decisive over incremental moves — 'If you're going to move, move big' — having voted with the 7-2 majority to hold at 3.75% in June. She flagged record household inflation expectations and said data outturns in the second half, especially one-year-ahead expectations and the read-through to 2027 wage negotiations, are 'particularly important' for her future decisions.

The day closes with a Philip Lane dinner speech at 20:30 CET at the ChaMP conference in Rome — with one wrinkle the ECB's own calendar discloses: the text will be delivered by Philipp Hartmann, the ECB's Deputy Director General Economics, not by the chief economist in person. Lane's most recent public remarks came in a 30 June Bloomberg TV interview: knock-on effects from higher energy prices 'will take a while to show up', and the Governing Council is committed to 'not boxing ourselves in' on the rate path, without ruling out another increase. On 16 June, he presented the staff-consistent inflation path of 3.0% for 2026, easing to 2.3% in 2027 and 2.0% in 2028, and noted that the upper end of the ECB's estimated neutral-rate range has risen by 25bp to 2.50%.

Overview — the day at a glance

Markets return from the US Independence Day weekend to a European-led Monday: German factory orders open at 08:00 CET, Swiss unemployment follows at 09:00, construction PMIs and Sentix investor confidence fill the mid-morning, and the euro-area double release of May retail sales and producer prices lands at 11:00. The afternoon belongs to North America — the final S&P Global services PMI at 15:45 CET and the ISM services survey at 16:00 are the session's data pivot, with the Bank of Canada's two pre-decision surveys at 16:30 the main event for the loonie ahead of the 15 July meeting. The evening carries an unusually crowded central-bank slate: an ECB-hosted policy panel in Rome brings Fed Governor Waller and ECB board member Schnabel together at 17:00 CET, President Lagarde appears in Paris at 18:00, the Bank of England's Catherine Mann speaks in Newcastle at 18:45, and a Philip Lane text closes the day at 20:30.

Germany's May factory orders open the week at 08:00 CET. Consensus looks for a 1.2% monthly rebound after April's 3.8% decline, which itself followed a 4.5% jump in March. Some analysts broadly read through the month-to-month noise: orders have been on an upward trend since the middle of last year, helped by domestic demand and a strong fiscal impulse, and the resolution of the Middle East conflict is expected to support sentiment and, in turn, orders — though private investment has so far remained modest despite the fiscal boost. Others describe the series as volatile but recently trendless, with the week's German focus split between Monday's orders and the industrial-production and trade figures later in the week.

Swiss unemployment for June is released at 09:00 CET, with consensus at 3.0%, unchanged from May.

The SNB will release its update on sight deposits for last week at 10:00 CET. They are far from a perfect proxy for SNB interventions in foreign exchange markets and are influenced by other factors, yet they remain worth monitoring. In its latest statement, the central bank said that

"in view of international developments, we are increasingly prepared to intervene in the foreign exchange market. We stand ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market to curb a rapid and excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc, which would jeopardise price stability."

Mid-morning brings June construction PMIs (euro area 09:30 CET, prior 43.7; Germany 42.4; France 39.6; Italy 49.4; the UK follows at 10:30, prior 38.2 with consensus at 40.1) and July's Sentix investor-confidence survey at 10:30 CET, where the prior stands at −13.4 and the calendar carries no published consensus. The Sentix release is the first sentiment reading collected wholly after the US-Iran de-escalation; observers expect the better geopolitical news to support a recovery, with bank calendars carrying expectations around −9.

In the euro-area, the retail sales report will be released at 11:00 CET. Consensus stands at +0.2% on the month and +1.5% on the year, after −0.4% and +1.0%. A rebound near consensus would leave sales through May above the prior three months at an annualised pace despite the quarter's significant income shock — driven partly by Germany, where government measures to mitigate energy prices took effect and May sales rose 1.1% on the month, partially offset by a modest French contraction. Analysts read employment gains as the reason spending has held up.

The US afternoon builds to the ISM services survey at 16:00 CET, with consensus at 54.2 after May's 54.5. The sub-indices carry the story: business activity enters at 57.7, new orders at 57.3, employment at 47.9 — still contractionary — and prices at 71.3, a cycle high. The final S&P Global services PMI prints fifteen minutes earlier (flash 51.3, after 50.7).

The central expectation is a modest slip that stays comfortably expansionary — consistent. One house argues, with GDP growth a little above 2% — while the surveys' inflation signal is expected to ease as the Middle East premium fades: several analysts flag the prices component as the number to watch, with one desk penciling in a fall toward 67.5 and noting the index measures input prices, making it especially sensitive to the commodity move.

Editor's Note: Consensus at 54.2 prices in stability. A fall in prices paid toward the mid-60s from 71.3, alongside a steady composite, is the Goldilocks print — it validates the transitory-supply-shock read that the July doves need before the 14 July CPI. The hawkish tail is a composite in the mid-55s with prices holding above 70: that combination could revive the September-hike pricing that soft payrolls just took out. Also, watch out for the employment component if it stays in contractionary territory.

Canada's quarterly pre-decision surveys — the Business Outlook Survey and the Survey of Consumer Expectations — land at 16:30 CET, following the S&P Global Canada PMIs at 15:30 (composite prior 50.8, services 50.6). Analysts expect the surveys to show further increases in inflation expectations, with the consumer readings already at or above the top of the central bank's 1–3% target range across all time horizons in the first quarter, and business measures at the upper end of the range. The survey's two-year-ahead expectations gauge is seen as having catching up to do against the BoC's slightly fresher Business Leaders' Pulse measure.

Rounding out the session: the US Treasury sells 3- and 6-month bills at 17:30 CET (prior stops 3.74% and 3.84%) — the first supply of a holiday-shortened week with no cash-market dislocations expected — and Australia's TD-MI inflation gauge (prior −0.3% m/m), New Zealand's ANZ commodity prices (prior +0.7%) and Australian job ads (prior +1.8%) print overnight before Europe opens.

ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel chairs a policy panel at 17:00 CET at the closing conference of the ESCB's ChaMP research network in Rome, with Fed Governor Christopher Waller, the NBB's Pierre Wunsch and the Riksbank's Anna Seim as participants. As chair, Schnabel is not scheduled to deliver a text. Her most recent remarks came at the Petersberger Summer Dialogue on 27 June, where she said food, goods and services inflation are 'facing upside risks', that the 'energy price shock can feed into broader inflationary dynamics', and that the US-Iran truce does not justify relaxing the monetary stance.

Waller's most recent speech is the 22 May Frankfurt School lecture 'Policy Risks Have Changed'. In cached late-May remarks, he said he would support a hike if inflation expectations de-anchor.

Editor's Note: Waller is the one FOMC voter speaking between payrolls and Wednesday's minutes — any Q&A comment on whether the soft jobs report changes the hike calculus is the headline risk of the evening.

ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in an on-stage conversation at 18:00 CET at the 15th-anniversary event of Financi'Elles in Paris — a professional-network occasion, not a policy venue. Her most recent policy statement is the Sintra opening speech 'Back to basics in an uncertain environment' (29 June): the ECB has returned to rates as the primary tool with 'measured' adjustments, moved off the lower bound on the back of defence spending and supply shocks rather than demand, and she argued reaction-function guidance plus scenario analysis now serve better than forward guidance, justifying the June increase by projections showing inflation above 2% through 2027 without action. At Sintra, she also described inflation and growth risks as 'probably more broadly balanced'. Separately, she told an interviewer last week she cannot rule out departing the ECB before her term ends.

Bank of England MPC external member Catherine Mann speaks at 18:45 CET in Newcastle. At a Natixis event on 2 July she said the loosening of financial conditions since the June meeting 'will be an important consideration' for her end-of-July vote, noting markets no longer fully price a Bank Rate increase this year; she advocated decisive over incremental moves — 'If you're going to move, move big' — having voted with the 7-2 majority to hold at 3.75% in June. She flagged record household inflation expectations and said data outturns in the second half, especially one-year-ahead expectations and the read-through to 2027 wage negotiations, are 'particularly important' for her future decisions.

The day closes with a Philip Lane dinner speech at 20:30 CET at the ChaMP conference in Rome — with one wrinkle the ECB's own calendar discloses: the text will be delivered by Philipp Hartmann, the ECB's Deputy Director General Economics, not by the chief economist in person. Lane's most recent public remarks came in a 30 June Bloomberg TV interview: knock-on effects from higher energy prices 'will take a while to show up', and the Governing Council is committed to 'not boxing ourselves in' on the rate path, without ruling out another increase. On 16 June, he presented the staff-consistent inflation path of 3.0% for 2026, easing to 2.3% in 2027 and 2.0% in 2028, and noted that the upper end of the ECB's estimated neutral-rate range has risen by 25bp to 2.50%.

Overview — the day at a glance

Markets return from the US Independence Day weekend to a European-led Monday: German factory orders open at 08:00 CET, Swiss unemployment follows at 09:00, construction PMIs and Sentix investor confidence fill the mid-morning, and the euro-area double release of May retail sales and producer prices lands at 11:00. The afternoon belongs to North America — the final S&P Global services PMI at 15:45 CET and the ISM services survey at 16:00 are the session's data pivot, with the Bank of Canada's two pre-decision surveys at 16:30 the main event for the loonie ahead of the 15 July meeting. The evening carries an unusually crowded central-bank slate: an ECB-hosted policy panel in Rome brings Fed Governor Waller and ECB board member Schnabel together at 17:00 CET, President Lagarde appears in Paris at 18:00, the Bank of England's Catherine Mann speaks in Newcastle at 18:45, and a Philip Lane text closes the day at 20:30.

Germany's May factory orders open the week at 08:00 CET. Consensus looks for a 1.2% monthly rebound after April's 3.8% decline, which itself followed a 4.5% jump in March. Some analysts broadly read through the month-to-month noise: orders have been on an upward trend since the middle of last year, helped by domestic demand and a strong fiscal impulse, and the resolution of the Middle East conflict is expected to support sentiment and, in turn, orders — though private investment has so far remained modest despite the fiscal boost. Others describe the series as volatile but recently trendless, with the week's German focus split between Monday's orders and the industrial-production and trade figures later in the week.

Swiss unemployment for June is released at 09:00 CET, with consensus at 3.0%, unchanged from May.

The SNB will release its update on sight deposits for last week at 10:00 CET. They are far from a perfect proxy for SNB interventions in foreign exchange markets and are influenced by other factors, yet they remain worth monitoring. In its latest statement, the central bank said that

"in view of international developments, we are increasingly prepared to intervene in the foreign exchange market. We stand ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market to curb a rapid and excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc, which would jeopardise price stability."

Mid-morning brings June construction PMIs (euro area 09:30 CET, prior 43.7; Germany 42.4; France 39.6; Italy 49.4; the UK follows at 10:30, prior 38.2 with consensus at 40.1) and July's Sentix investor-confidence survey at 10:30 CET, where the prior stands at −13.4 and the calendar carries no published consensus. The Sentix release is the first sentiment reading collected wholly after the US-Iran de-escalation; observers expect the better geopolitical news to support a recovery, with bank calendars carrying expectations around −9.

In the euro-area, the retail sales report will be released at 11:00 CET. Consensus stands at +0.2% on the month and +1.5% on the year, after −0.4% and +1.0%. A rebound near consensus would leave sales through May above the prior three months at an annualised pace despite the quarter's significant income shock — driven partly by Germany, where government measures to mitigate energy prices took effect and May sales rose 1.1% on the month, partially offset by a modest French contraction. Analysts read employment gains as the reason spending has held up.

The US afternoon builds to the ISM services survey at 16:00 CET, with consensus at 54.2 after May's 54.5. The sub-indices carry the story: business activity enters at 57.7, new orders at 57.3, employment at 47.9 — still contractionary — and prices at 71.3, a cycle high. The final S&P Global services PMI prints fifteen minutes earlier (flash 51.3, after 50.7).

The central expectation is a modest slip that stays comfortably expansionary — consistent. One house argues, with GDP growth a little above 2% — while the surveys' inflation signal is expected to ease as the Middle East premium fades: several analysts flag the prices component as the number to watch, with one desk penciling in a fall toward 67.5 and noting the index measures input prices, making it especially sensitive to the commodity move.

Editor's Note: Consensus at 54.2 prices in stability. A fall in prices paid toward the mid-60s from 71.3, alongside a steady composite, is the Goldilocks print — it validates the transitory-supply-shock read that the July doves need before the 14 July CPI. The hawkish tail is a composite in the mid-55s with prices holding above 70: that combination could revive the September-hike pricing that soft payrolls just took out. Also, watch out for the employment component if it stays in contractionary territory.

Canada's quarterly pre-decision surveys — the Business Outlook Survey and the Survey of Consumer Expectations — land at 16:30 CET, following the S&P Global Canada PMIs at 15:30 (composite prior 50.8, services 50.6). Analysts expect the surveys to show further increases in inflation expectations, with the consumer readings already at or above the top of the central bank's 1–3% target range across all time horizons in the first quarter, and business measures at the upper end of the range. The survey's two-year-ahead expectations gauge is seen as having catching up to do against the BoC's slightly fresher Business Leaders' Pulse measure.

Rounding out the session: the US Treasury sells 3- and 6-month bills at 17:30 CET (prior stops 3.74% and 3.84%) — the first supply of a holiday-shortened week with no cash-market dislocations expected — and Australia's TD-MI inflation gauge (prior −0.3% m/m), New Zealand's ANZ commodity prices (prior +0.7%) and Australian job ads (prior +1.8%) print overnight before Europe opens.

ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel chairs a policy panel at 17:00 CET at the closing conference of the ESCB's ChaMP research network in Rome, with Fed Governor Christopher Waller, the NBB's Pierre Wunsch and the Riksbank's Anna Seim as participants. As chair, Schnabel is not scheduled to deliver a text. Her most recent remarks came at the Petersberger Summer Dialogue on 27 June, where she said food, goods and services inflation are 'facing upside risks', that the 'energy price shock can feed into broader inflationary dynamics', and that the US-Iran truce does not justify relaxing the monetary stance.

Waller's most recent speech is the 22 May Frankfurt School lecture 'Policy Risks Have Changed'. In cached late-May remarks, he said he would support a hike if inflation expectations de-anchor.

Editor's Note: Waller is the one FOMC voter speaking between payrolls and Wednesday's minutes — any Q&A comment on whether the soft jobs report changes the hike calculus is the headline risk of the evening.

ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in an on-stage conversation at 18:00 CET at the 15th-anniversary event of Financi'Elles in Paris — a professional-network occasion, not a policy venue. Her most recent policy statement is the Sintra opening speech 'Back to basics in an uncertain environment' (29 June): the ECB has returned to rates as the primary tool with 'measured' adjustments, moved off the lower bound on the back of defence spending and supply shocks rather than demand, and she argued reaction-function guidance plus scenario analysis now serve better than forward guidance, justifying the June increase by projections showing inflation above 2% through 2027 without action. At Sintra, she also described inflation and growth risks as 'probably more broadly balanced'. Separately, she told an interviewer last week she cannot rule out departing the ECB before her term ends.

Bank of England MPC external member Catherine Mann speaks at 18:45 CET in Newcastle. At a Natixis event on 2 July she said the loosening of financial conditions since the June meeting 'will be an important consideration' for her end-of-July vote, noting markets no longer fully price a Bank Rate increase this year; she advocated decisive over incremental moves — 'If you're going to move, move big' — having voted with the 7-2 majority to hold at 3.75% in June. She flagged record household inflation expectations and said data outturns in the second half, especially one-year-ahead expectations and the read-through to 2027 wage negotiations, are 'particularly important' for her future decisions.

The day closes with a Philip Lane dinner speech at 20:30 CET at the ChaMP conference in Rome — with one wrinkle the ECB's own calendar discloses: the text will be delivered by Philipp Hartmann, the ECB's Deputy Director General Economics, not by the chief economist in person. Lane's most recent public remarks came in a 30 June Bloomberg TV interview: knock-on effects from higher energy prices 'will take a while to show up', and the Governing Council is committed to 'not boxing ourselves in' on the rate path, without ruling out another increase. On 16 June, he presented the staff-consistent inflation path of 3.0% for 2026, easing to 2.3% in 2027 and 2.0% in 2028, and noted that the upper end of the ECB's estimated neutral-rate range has risen by 25bp to 2.50%.

Overview — the day at a glance

Markets return from the US Independence Day weekend to a European-led Monday: German factory orders open at 08:00 CET, Swiss unemployment follows at 09:00, construction PMIs and Sentix investor confidence fill the mid-morning, and the euro-area double release of May retail sales and producer prices lands at 11:00. The afternoon belongs to North America — the final S&P Global services PMI at 15:45 CET and the ISM services survey at 16:00 are the session's data pivot, with the Bank of Canada's two pre-decision surveys at 16:30 the main event for the loonie ahead of the 15 July meeting. The evening carries an unusually crowded central-bank slate: an ECB-hosted policy panel in Rome brings Fed Governor Waller and ECB board member Schnabel together at 17:00 CET, President Lagarde appears in Paris at 18:00, the Bank of England's Catherine Mann speaks in Newcastle at 18:45, and a Philip Lane text closes the day at 20:30.

Germany's May factory orders open the week at 08:00 CET. Consensus looks for a 1.2% monthly rebound after April's 3.8% decline, which itself followed a 4.5% jump in March. Some analysts broadly read through the month-to-month noise: orders have been on an upward trend since the middle of last year, helped by domestic demand and a strong fiscal impulse, and the resolution of the Middle East conflict is expected to support sentiment and, in turn, orders — though private investment has so far remained modest despite the fiscal boost. Others describe the series as volatile but recently trendless, with the week's German focus split between Monday's orders and the industrial-production and trade figures later in the week.

Swiss unemployment for June is released at 09:00 CET, with consensus at 3.0%, unchanged from May.

The SNB will release its update on sight deposits for last week at 10:00 CET. They are far from a perfect proxy for SNB interventions in foreign exchange markets and are influenced by other factors, yet they remain worth monitoring. In its latest statement, the central bank said that

"in view of international developments, we are increasingly prepared to intervene in the foreign exchange market. We stand ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market to curb a rapid and excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc, which would jeopardise price stability."

Mid-morning brings June construction PMIs (euro area 09:30 CET, prior 43.7; Germany 42.4; France 39.6; Italy 49.4; the UK follows at 10:30, prior 38.2 with consensus at 40.1) and July's Sentix investor-confidence survey at 10:30 CET, where the prior stands at −13.4 and the calendar carries no published consensus. The Sentix release is the first sentiment reading collected wholly after the US-Iran de-escalation; observers expect the better geopolitical news to support a recovery, with bank calendars carrying expectations around −9.

In the euro-area, the retail sales report will be released at 11:00 CET. Consensus stands at +0.2% on the month and +1.5% on the year, after −0.4% and +1.0%. A rebound near consensus would leave sales through May above the prior three months at an annualised pace despite the quarter's significant income shock — driven partly by Germany, where government measures to mitigate energy prices took effect and May sales rose 1.1% on the month, partially offset by a modest French contraction. Analysts read employment gains as the reason spending has held up.

The US afternoon builds to the ISM services survey at 16:00 CET, with consensus at 54.2 after May's 54.5. The sub-indices carry the story: business activity enters at 57.7, new orders at 57.3, employment at 47.9 — still contractionary — and prices at 71.3, a cycle high. The final S&P Global services PMI prints fifteen minutes earlier (flash 51.3, after 50.7).

The central expectation is a modest slip that stays comfortably expansionary — consistent. One house argues, with GDP growth a little above 2% — while the surveys' inflation signal is expected to ease as the Middle East premium fades: several analysts flag the prices component as the number to watch, with one desk penciling in a fall toward 67.5 and noting the index measures input prices, making it especially sensitive to the commodity move.

Editor's Note: Consensus at 54.2 prices in stability. A fall in prices paid toward the mid-60s from 71.3, alongside a steady composite, is the Goldilocks print — it validates the transitory-supply-shock read that the July doves need before the 14 July CPI. The hawkish tail is a composite in the mid-55s with prices holding above 70: that combination could revive the September-hike pricing that soft payrolls just took out. Also, watch out for the employment component if it stays in contractionary territory.

Canada's quarterly pre-decision surveys — the Business Outlook Survey and the Survey of Consumer Expectations — land at 16:30 CET, following the S&P Global Canada PMIs at 15:30 (composite prior 50.8, services 50.6). Analysts expect the surveys to show further increases in inflation expectations, with the consumer readings already at or above the top of the central bank's 1–3% target range across all time horizons in the first quarter, and business measures at the upper end of the range. The survey's two-year-ahead expectations gauge is seen as having catching up to do against the BoC's slightly fresher Business Leaders' Pulse measure.

Rounding out the session: the US Treasury sells 3- and 6-month bills at 17:30 CET (prior stops 3.74% and 3.84%) — the first supply of a holiday-shortened week with no cash-market dislocations expected — and Australia's TD-MI inflation gauge (prior −0.3% m/m), New Zealand's ANZ commodity prices (prior +0.7%) and Australian job ads (prior +1.8%) print overnight before Europe opens.

ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel chairs a policy panel at 17:00 CET at the closing conference of the ESCB's ChaMP research network in Rome, with Fed Governor Christopher Waller, the NBB's Pierre Wunsch and the Riksbank's Anna Seim as participants. As chair, Schnabel is not scheduled to deliver a text. Her most recent remarks came at the Petersberger Summer Dialogue on 27 June, where she said food, goods and services inflation are 'facing upside risks', that the 'energy price shock can feed into broader inflationary dynamics', and that the US-Iran truce does not justify relaxing the monetary stance.

Waller's most recent speech is the 22 May Frankfurt School lecture 'Policy Risks Have Changed'. In cached late-May remarks, he said he would support a hike if inflation expectations de-anchor.

Editor's Note: Waller is the one FOMC voter speaking between payrolls and Wednesday's minutes — any Q&A comment on whether the soft jobs report changes the hike calculus is the headline risk of the evening.

ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in an on-stage conversation at 18:00 CET at the 15th-anniversary event of Financi'Elles in Paris — a professional-network occasion, not a policy venue. Her most recent policy statement is the Sintra opening speech 'Back to basics in an uncertain environment' (29 June): the ECB has returned to rates as the primary tool with 'measured' adjustments, moved off the lower bound on the back of defence spending and supply shocks rather than demand, and she argued reaction-function guidance plus scenario analysis now serve better than forward guidance, justifying the June increase by projections showing inflation above 2% through 2027 without action. At Sintra, she also described inflation and growth risks as 'probably more broadly balanced'. Separately, she told an interviewer last week she cannot rule out departing the ECB before her term ends.

Bank of England MPC external member Catherine Mann speaks at 18:45 CET in Newcastle. At a Natixis event on 2 July she said the loosening of financial conditions since the June meeting 'will be an important consideration' for her end-of-July vote, noting markets no longer fully price a Bank Rate increase this year; she advocated decisive over incremental moves — 'If you're going to move, move big' — having voted with the 7-2 majority to hold at 3.75% in June. She flagged record household inflation expectations and said data outturns in the second half, especially one-year-ahead expectations and the read-through to 2027 wage negotiations, are 'particularly important' for her future decisions.

The day closes with a Philip Lane dinner speech at 20:30 CET at the ChaMP conference in Rome — with one wrinkle the ECB's own calendar discloses: the text will be delivered by Philipp Hartmann, the ECB's Deputy Director General Economics, not by the chief economist in person. Lane's most recent public remarks came in a 30 June Bloomberg TV interview: knock-on effects from higher energy prices 'will take a while to show up', and the Governing Council is committed to 'not boxing ourselves in' on the rate path, without ruling out another increase. On 16 June, he presented the staff-consistent inflation path of 3.0% for 2026, easing to 2.3% in 2027 and 2.0% in 2028, and noted that the upper end of the ECB's estimated neutral-rate range has risen by 25bp to 2.50%.