Tomorrow's Macro Roadmap: ECB Account / UK RICS / China CPI & PPI / DE Trade Balance / US Weekly Jobless Claims & Existing Home Sales / Fed's Williams & Logan
The day at a glance
Thursday is a signalling day rather than a decision day. It is topped by the account of the ECB's 11 June meeting at 13:30 CET. At that session, the Governing Council raised the deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% to lean against the energy-driven inflation shock. The account will be mined for how firmly a September follow-up hike is on the table. Note that given the recent rebound in oil prices, traders have boosted ECB rate bets and now favour two 25bps hikes by year-end.
On the data front, the UK RICS house price balance opens the slate at 01:01 CET. China's June inflation at 03:30 CET tests whether factory-gate prices are turning up while consumer prices stay soft, and Germany's May trade figures at 08:00 CET gauge the export engine.
The US afternoon brings weekly jobless claims (14:30 CET) and June existing home sales (16:00 CET), with the Fed's Williams (15:00) and Logan (19:30) bracketing the session on opposite sides of the patience-versus-hike debate.
Data Preview
The RICS Residential Market Survey house price balance for June is released at 01:01 CET. The net balance — the share of surveyors reporting rising prices minus those seeing falls — is seen improving to -32% from -34%, still negative. A negative balance means more surveyors still see prices falling than rising, so the modest improvement points to a housing market steadying rather than turning up as mortgage rates hold high. It is the most timely read on UK house prices and a leading indicator for the official measures.
Editor's Note: RICS rarely moves the pound, but as the timeliest housing gauge, it feeds the Bank of England's read on whether high rates are still cooling the market. A further move toward zero supports the view that the worst of the housing drag is past; a renewed slide reinforces the case that policy is biting.
(RICS)
China's June inflation prints at 03:30 CET. Consumer prices are seen easing to 1.1% year-on-year from 1.2%, with the monthly rate around -0.2%. Producer prices are expected to rise to 4.1% year-on-year from 3.9%. Consumer inflation remains soft while producer prices firm up, according to the consensus. The soft CPI reflects still-weak domestic demand, while the firmer PPI points to some pricing power returning to industry.
Germany's May trade data are released at 08:00 CET. Exports are expected to fall 0.3% on the month after a 0.9% April gain, and imports to edge up 0.1% after rising 1.2%, leaving the trade surplus little changed near its prior €14.5bn. After a resilient first quarter, the export sector faces tariff uncertainty and softer external demand. The May figures gauge whether the recent momentum in orders is feeding through to shipments.
Editor's Note: German trade rarely moves the euro on its own, but it feeds Q2 GDP tracking and the read on whether Europe's industrial engine is stabilising. A weak export print reinforces the soft-demand narrative behind the doves' case at the ECB; a firm one supports the view that tightening can continue. It is a second-tier input to Thursday's bigger ECB-account story.
US initial jobless claims for the week to 4 July are released at 14:30 CET. The consensus looks for 218k, up from 215k, with continuing claims at 1,820k, up from 1,814k. Claims have run below prior-year levels since the spring and tend to drift lower around the Independence Day holiday. The low headline is consistent with a labour market that is cooling only gradually rather than cracking.
Editor's Note: With the Fed's next move a live debate between patience and a pre-emptive hike, the claims trend is the high-frequency labour check several hawks lean on. A sub-215k print reinforces the 'no slack yet' case. A jump towards the high 220s hands the patient camp more room. The number rarely moves markets alone, but it colours the same-day Fed commentary from Williams and Logan.
US existing home sales for June print at 16:00 CET. The consensus looks for a 4.20mn annualised pace, up from 4.17mn in May. The signal is muddied. Pending-sales data, which lead by a month or two, rose to a six-month high through May, arguing for a firmer number. Yet affordability remains poor, with prices high and mortgage rates above 6%.
Editor's Note: Housing is the clearest channel through which the Fed's higher-for-longer stance is biting, as mentioned by Fed Chair Warsh in his last press conference. A soft print reinforces the case that policy is restrictive even as the broader economy holds up. A firm number feeds the argument that policy is not actually restraining activity; the hawkish read Logan presses.
Central Bank Previews
The ECB publishes the account of its 11 June meeting at 13:30 CET. There, the Governing Council raised the deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% in response to the energy- and Middle-East-driven inflation shock. The account matters because the near-term path is genuinely contested. One camp reads the June decision and President Lagarde's Sintra remarks as pointing to a further hike in September. That camp argues that a euro area more exposed to supply shocks that pass through to core prices needs to keep tightening. The other camp points to June's flash inflation, which surprised to the downside on both the headline and core measures, as evidence that the shock is fading and the Council can hold. The account's language on second-round effects and energy pass-through is the tell.
New York Fed President John Williams speaks at 15:00 CET. He is a permanent FOMC voter and, as the Committee's vice chair, part of its leadership. In televised remarks on 7 July, he said he had become more sanguine on the near-term inflation outlook because of the retreat in oil and energy prices, which he expects to pull headline inflation lower over the coming months, while still describing inflation as too high (PCE was around 4.1% in May). He judged monetary policy well positioned to meet the Fed's goals. He said tariff and trade uncertainty continue to weigh on business investment, and defended the June decision to drop explicit forward guidance, citing outsized uncertainty.
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaks at 19:30 CET. She is a 2026 FOMC voter and one of the Committee's more hawkish members. At a moderated conversation at the University of Texas at El Paso on 3 June, she said she was increasingly concerned that higher interest rates could be needed later in 2026 to fully restore price stability, arguing a broad range of inflation indicators had heated up and that the current 3.50–3.75% funds range was not restraining prices enough. She noted PCE inflation running close to 4% over the prior year and taking too long to return to the 2% target, and pointed to robust consumer spending, strong corporate earnings, and booming AI investment as evidence that policy is not restraining the economy. She acknowledged some of the past year's excess inflation came from temporary factors such as tariffs and energy, but said she worried about its persistence.