Tomorrow's Macro Roadmap: ECB, BOE, BOC & Fed Speak, US non-farm payrolls
The January 2026 employment report, initially scheduled for 6 February and delayed due to a partial federal government shutdown, will be the main focus today. This report is particularly important as it includes the final annual benchmark revisions for the twelve months up to March 2025. The preliminary estimate published in September 2025 showed a significant downward revision of 911,000 jobs, roughly 76,000 fewer jobs per month than originally reported. However, the final revision may differ from this preliminary figure, as evidenced by last year's experience when a preliminary revision of -818,000 jobs was eventually finalised at -589,000. Economists currently expect a downward revision to the final figure, bringing the job total closer to 700,000 rather than the initial estimate. If near the preliminary level, this would represent the largest downward revision since 1979, surpassing the March 2009 revision of -902,000 jobs during the financial crisis. We will also be monitoring wages and the unemployment rate with particular interest.
ECB Executive Board member Schnabel, the most hawkish (hawk-dove score: 1.5), is due to speak today. Her messaging has moderated significantly since her December 2025 Bloomberg interview, in which she stated she was "rather comfortable" with market pricing for a rate hike and warned that "inflation risks are tilted slightly upward". However, on January 28, 2026, she signalled rates are "expected to remain at current levels for an extended period", marking a notable shift toward stability. (ES)
ECB policymaker Cipollone is also due to speak. He has adopted a dovish-to-neutral stance. In a February 8 interview with the Cyprus News Agency, he confirmed the ECB “does not have a specific target for the exchange rate, but obviously considers it as an input in projections” — signalling that the euro’s recent rally will be a key factor in the March staff forecast revision.
Michelle Bowman, Vice Chair for Supervision, has made a notable dovish shift. She now predicts three rate cuts in 2026 — describing current policy (3.50-3.75%) as “moderately restrictive” with “significant room to continue easing.” However, she asserts the Fed can “afford to take time” and prefers a “measured pace” towards neutral. Regarding the labour market, she described conditions as “increasingly fragile,” with the Conference Board’s job availability index falling to its lowest since 2021. Today’s speech gains extra significance coming just hours after the NFP release — her commentary will be among the first Fed reactions to the data. (Fed)
The Bank of Canada publishes a summary of its January meeting, at which it held the overnight rate at 2.25%. Canada’s labour market picture was mixed: December employment fell by 24.8K, but full-time jobs rose by 44.9K, and unemployment fell to 6.5% (driven by labour force contraction rather than hiring). Wells Fargo continues to expect the BoC to remain on hold through 2026.