Tomorrow's Macro Roadmap: ECB & Fed speak / Canada CPI
Tomorrow opens the week quietly on data but heavily on central-bank speakers, dominated by ECB voices. President Lagarde appears three times — at the European Parliament's ECON hearing (~15:00 CET), an ETUC meeting (12:00) and a panel on the international role of the euro (17:15) — alongside Chief Economist Lane at the Mundell symposium in Rome (16:10) and Bundesbank President Nagel at 13:00. On the Fed side, Governor Christopher Waller delivers opening remarks at a US-dollar conference at 15:00 CET, the first Fed voice since Warsh's hawkish hold. The single first-tier release is Canada CPI at 14:30 CET.
ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak at 15:00 CET at the European Parliament's ECON hearing in Brussels, with further appearances at an ETUC meeting (12:00) and a panel on the international role of the euro (17:15). At the 11 June meeting she led the Governing Council in raising all three key rates by 25bp — the first ECB hike since the 2022–23 cycle — and explicitly rejected calling it an 'insurance hike,' framing it as a genuine response to the Iran/Middle-East energy-driven inflation and 'robust across a range of scenarios,' with staff projections revised up (headline ~3.0% for 2026) and growth down. The hearing is her first scheduled public follow-up since the hike, watched for whether she hardens the second-round-effects message and keeps a July move live.
ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane will appear at 16:10 CET on a policy panel at the symposium in honour of Robert Mundell, held at the Banca d'Italia in Rome. He has struck a 'somewhat hawkish' tone since the hike, calling the June decision 'pretty straightforward' and warning of a 'prolonged period of above-target inflation,' while noting the upper end of the neutral-rate range has crept up toward ~2.5%. He frames the energy shock as 'medium-sized with medium persistence' and has said the ECB 'may yet raise rates again if evidence points to inflation concerns.'
Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel, an ECB Governing Council member, is scheduled to speak at 13:00 CET. A hawkish voice, he has flagged German inflation averaging ~2.7% in 2026 with some months above 3% and called the Iran war 'a burden on the global economy' — a backdrop consistent with his support for the June hike. Per Deutsche Bank's read of his recent comments, he regards policy as 'still broadly neutral' with the ECB 'keeping all options open for the July meeting.' His latest set-piece pressed structural reform and competitiveness for the German economy.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller will deliver opening remarks at 15:00 CET at a conference on the international roles of the US dollar in Washington. His May lecture confirmed his pivot from lead dove to hawk: he backed removing the 'easing bias' language 'to make it clear that a rate cut is no more likely than a rate increase,' and said he 'can no longer rule out rate hikes further down the road' if inflation expectations show signs of unanchoring. His stated stance is to hold near-term within 3.50–3.75% while citing the Middle-East energy shock — a position that foreshadowed the Fed's hawkish 17 June hold under Warsh. His remarks are watched for whether the hike option has firmed.
In Switzerland, the SNB will release its update on sight deposits for last week at 10:00 CET. They are far from a perfect proxy for SNB interventions in foreign exchange markets and are influenced by other factors, yet they remain worth monitoring. In its latest statement, the central bank said that
"in view of international developments, we are increasingly prepared to intervene in the foreign exchange market. We stand ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market to curb a rapid and excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc, which would jeopardise price stability."
The single first-tier release is Canada CPI at 14:30 CET: a gasoline-driven headline near 3.0–3.2% that several houses call the peak, with the real signal in the BoC's trim/median core — steady around 2.0–2.1%.