Tomorrow's Macro Roadmap: FR, IT, DE inflation / ECB speak / RBA minutes / US JOLTS & consumer confidence
Tuesday is the euro area's flash-CPI day. France (08:45 CET), Italy (11:00 CET) and Germany (national reading 14:00 CET, with the states from around 10:00) all report June inflation, setting up the euro-area-wide flash on Wednesday. Around them sit German retail sales and unemployment, UK final Q1 GDP and Canadian GDP. The US labour warm-up to Thursday's payrolls arrives late in the day — JOLTS job openings, the Conference Board consumer confidence survey and the Chicago PMI (15:45–16:00 CET). Asia leads off overnight with China's official PMIs and the RBA's June minutes (both 03:30 CET). The ECB Forum in Sintra runs its second day, with Schnabel, Lane and the BoE's Breeden on thematic panels.
ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel chairs the Sintra panel on artificial intelligence and financial stability at 12:40 CET, alongside the BoE's Breeden. She is the board's most hawkish voice. In her most recent speech, 'Is inflation back?' (27 June, Petersberger Sommerdialog), Schnabel argued that inflation risks are tilted to the upside across food, goods and services, with the energy shock already spilling into broader prices as firms pass on higher costs. She cautioned that the US–Iran ceasefire is no reason to give the all-clear, since the Strait of Hormuz will reopen only gradually, and reiterated that from today's perspective the ECB will need to raise rates further to return inflation to 2%.
ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane appears at 15:30 CET for a conversation on artificial intelligence with OpenAI's Aaron Chatterji. In his most recent policy remarks, introductory remarks to the European Parliament's ECON Committee on 23 June, Lane framed the outlook around the Middle East energy shock and its persistence into 2027. He noted that negotiated wage growth had slowed to 2.5% in the first quarter (from 2.9%) while services inflation rose half a point to 3.5%, and stressed a measured, data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach with no pre-commitment to a rate path.
BoE Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Sarah Breeden joins the Sintra panel on artificial intelligence and financial stability at 12:40 CET. Her focus is on financial stability rather than the rate path.
The RBA publishes the minutes of its June meeting at 03:30 CET. The Board held the cash rate at 4.35% — a hawkish hold after three hikes — warning that inflation was too high and that it would raise rates further if required. The minutes document the 16 June decision, a unanimous hold. That statement judged inflation still elevated on capacity pressures and the Middle East oil shock, with consumer spending slowing but business investment firm, and carried an unusually direct tightening clause: the Board 'will do what it considers necessary to achieve that outcome, including increasing the cash rate target further if required.' The minutes flesh out the deliberations behind that line. The minutes are read for how firmly the Board kept a tightening bias: whether it leaned towards a further hike or signalled comfort with an extended hold, against market pricing that the cycle is done.
France's flash CPI for June is released at 08:45 CET. The national rate was 2.4% year-on-year in May and the EU-harmonised (HICP) rate 2.8%, with the monthly change seen flat. Some analysts look for French inflation to fall sharply, led by energy: the harmonised rate is seen dropping to around 2.3% as fuel and wholesale gas prices ease, with core inflation easing too.
Italy's flash CPI for June is released at 11:00 CET. The national and harmonised rates were both 3.2% year-on-year in May. Analysts look for Italian headline inflation to hold around 3.2%, with energy still firm and core inflation easing — the stickiest of the three big euro-area prints.
Germany's national flash CPI for June is released at 14:00 CET, with the regional states reporting from around 10:00 CET. The national rate was 2.6% year-on-year in May, with consensus at 2.5%, and the harmonised (HICP) rate was 2.7%, seen unchanged. The monthly national change is seen at about +0.1% (prior −0.2%). This is the day's pivotal release. House forecasts are unusually wide — from about 2.46% to 2.7% on the harmonised rate — and one house looks for core inflation to tick up rather than down, as core goods and services firm even while energy falls. That split is the upside-surprise risk into the ECB's July meeting.
Canadian monthly GDP for April is released at 14:30 CET, with a flash estimate for May. April activity is seen up about 0.4% on the month (prior −0.1%). Analysts look for a strong start to the second quarter, helped by a rebound in mining, oil and gas, with second-quarter growth tracking above 2% — though seen as flattered by temporary factors and likely to fade.
The US labour and sentiment cluster lands late in the day: the Chicago PMI for June (15:45 CET, prior 62.7, consensus 60.0), then JOLTS job openings for May and the Conference Board consumer confidence index for June (both 16:00 CET). Job openings were 7.62m in April, with consensus at 7.28m; consumer confidence was 93.1 in May, seen rising to about 94.2. These are the warm-up to Thursday's payrolls, brought forward a day because Friday is the Independence Day holiday. Analysts see job openings easing and confidence ticking up on the peace deal and lower petrol prices. Watch out for the quits rate in the JOLTS report and the labour market differential in the Conference Board report for clues on the state of the labour market.