Tomorrow's Macro Roadmap: German Business Confidence Seen Holding at 89.9 After Five Monthly Gains
Monday, 26 October 2026 — The ifo Institute publishes Germany's business climate survey for October at 10:00 CET.
Our three themes:
First, German business confidence. The ifo index has climbed for five months to 89.9, its highest since May 2023, and a steady October reading would leave the ECB's December pricing intact. Earlier surveys in the month were softer, though, as higher energy prices weighed on confidence, so the expectations index will show whether the recovery is losing pace three days before the ECB decides.
The second theme is big tech's results. Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon report this week, and their comments on AI spending could decide whether tech stocks recover from last week's selloff. Microsoft and Alphabet report on Wednesday and Amazon on Thursday. Bloomberg Intelligence expects Alphabet's revenue to grow 25%, the most since 2021. Investors want to know how much the three spend on artificial intelligence and when that spending pays off, after doubts about its financing deepened the selloff.
Last but not least, four rate decisions in two days. New Zealand, Canada and the US decide on Wednesday and the ECB on Thursday, though swap traders see little chance of a Fed or ECB move this week. The Fed decides at 19:00 CET, an hour earlier than usual because US clocks change a week after Europe's. Traders price in about a 75% chance of a hike by each in December so that the guidance could matter more for two-year yields than the decisions.
Chart of the day: Germany's Ifo index has risen for five months in a row
In brief
10:00 CET · IFO Business Climate (Oct): consensus 89.9, previous 89.9
10:00 CET · IFO Expectations (Oct): consensus 90, previous 90.4
10:00 CET · IFO Current Assessment (Oct): consensus 89.9, previous 89.5
Scenarios
Germany: Ifo business climate (Oct) (10:00 CET, Medium impact): Economists expect 89.9, unchanged. A drop to 89.5 or lower, led by expectations, could weigh on the euro and short-dated Bund yields. A reading above 90.7 would extend five months of gains.
The full preview
Data release previews
Economists expect the ifo business climate index for October to be unchanged at 89.9, with forecasts ranging from 89.5 to 90.7.
They expect the expectations index to ease to 90.0 from 90.4, while the assessment of current conditions rises to 89.9 from 89.5.
The index rose to 89.9 in September from 88.8 in August, its fifth straight gain since April's 84.5 and the highest reading since May 2023. Expectations rose to 90.4 and the assessment of current conditions to 89.5, the institute said, adding that the economy continued its recovery while retailers stayed cautious about rising inflation.
Germany's flash composite purchasing managers' index for October came in at 52.8, below the expected 53.4, and the ZEW survey's expectations for Germany missed estimates as energy prices rose further.
One house expects the climate index to fall to 88.9, saying higher energy prices tempered the upturn in sentiment, while another sees a mild rise to 90.3.
Bloomberg survey: median 89.9, range 89.5 to 90.7 (as of 24-10-2026).
ECB market pricing as of 25-10-2026, 16:50 CET:
29 Oct: implied 2.45%, +1 bp priced, 3% (hike) probability of a move
17 Dec: implied 2.64%, +20 bp priced, 76% (hike) probability of a move
4 Feb: implied 2.71%, +27 bp priced, 30% (hike) probability of a move
18 Mar: implied 2.86%, +42 bp priced, 58% (hike) probability of a move
1 basis point priced for 29 Oct, a 3% probability of a 25 basis point rise, and 20 basis points cumulatively by 17 Dec.
Changes are measured from today's effective rate of 2.44%.
Editor's Note: Swap traders put the odds of an ECB hike at 3% for Thursday and 76% for 17 December. A climate index at or below the 89.5 low end of forecasts, driven by expectations, would reinforce the PMI's signal that dearer energy is weighing on German companies. It could also trim the December pricing. A reading above 90.7 would extend the run of gains.
Also on the calendar
06:00 CET · Japan · Leading Index CI (previous 118)
06:00 CET · Japan · Coincident Index (previous 118.7)
08:00 CET · Sweden · PPI MoM (previous 0.9%)
08:00 CET · Sweden · PPI YoY (previous 6.8%)
10:00 CET · Switzerland · Domestic Sight Deposits CHF (previous 435.4b)
10:00 CET · Switzerland · Total Sight Deposits CHF (previous 457.0b)
12:00 CET · United Kingdom · CBI Total Dist. Reported Sales (previous -36)
12:00 CET · United Kingdom · CBI Retailing Reported Sales (consensus -48, previous -55)
13:00 CET · Canada · Bloomberg Nanos Confidence (previous 51.7)
13:30 CET · United States · Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (consensus -0.09, previous -0.04)
15:30 CET · United States · Dallas Fed Manf. Activity (consensus 8.5, previous 9.8)
Friday's Briefing: AI Rout Spreads to Asia as Bonds Rally and Japan's Inflation Tops 2% — https://ggma-app.com/public-article/ai-rout-spreads-to-asia-as-bonds-rally-and-japan-s-inflation-tops-2-214
Next GGMA Live Session: FOMC decision, Wednesday 28 October, 19:00 CET, in the app's Discussion Forum Light. Register at https://ggma-app.com/sign-up and reply in the chat to be added as a guest.
Tags: Ifo business climate October 2026, German economy outlook, ECB October meeting, Fed October meeting, Microsoft Alphabet earnings, Amazon earnings, AI spending, economic calendar 26 October 2026