Tomorrow's Macro Roadmap: German Ifo and US Durable Goods Open a Week Owned by the Fed, BoE and BoJ
Macro: The Big Picture
Monday opens the heaviest central-bank week of the summer: the Federal Reserve decides on Wednesday at 20:00 CET, the Bank of England on Thursday at 13:00 CET and the Bank of Japan on Friday, with Australia's second-quarter CPI due Wednesday morning. In today’s session, Germany's July Ifo business climate is due at 10:00 CET, where consensus looks for a rise to 86.1 from 85.6, and June US durable goods orders at 14:30 CET, where consensus expects a 1.6 per cent rebound after May's 4.5 per cent drop. China June industrial profits land at 03:30 CET against a prior 18.8 per cent year-to-date gain, and the Politburo's July economic meeting is expected during the week, its timing unconfirmed.
Key earnings: Monday itself has no major releases, but Microsoft and Meta report Wednesday on Fed day and Amazon and Apple on Thursday.
Data Release Previews
Europe: The July Ifo at 10:00 CET is the week's first test of whether German business confidence can extend June's improvement; consensus sees 86.1 after 85.6.
Germany's Ifo business climate index for July is released at 10:00 CET. Consensus looks for 86.1 after June's 85.6, with the expectations component seen firmer and current conditions little changed. Analysts see an improvement that would reinforce the PMI signal of a German economy gaining momentum as the energy shock fades, though they flag that the energy re-escalation could delay the recovery. It will also be interesting to see whether economic reforms unveiled in Germany have buoyed sentiment at all.
Editor's Note: the survey follows a surprisingly strong flash manufacturing PMI and ZEW. The question is whether the recent spike in oil prices will dent sentiment again.[1]
United States: June durable goods at 14:30 CET are expected to claw back 1.6 per cent after May's 4.5 per cent slide two days before the Fed.
US durable goods orders for June are released at 14:30 CET. Consensus expects headline orders up 1.6 per cent after May's 4.5 per cent fall, with orders excluding transportation seen up around 0.9 per cent after 1.3 per cent. Durable goods orders will be boosted by transportation in June as Boeing received 121 orders in the month, up from 27 prior.
Editor's Note: the headline is very noisy. The cleaner signal is core capital-goods orders, the last capex read before Wednesday's Fed: forecasters cluster around a steady ~0.9% mom ex-transport, and a soft core print would sit awkwardly with the resilience case the hawks are building.
The Dallas Fed manufacturing index for July at 16:30 CET is expected to firm from a flat prior reading, with some analysts looking for the strongest print since January 2025, driven by a stronger employment component and accelerating new orders, though the survey window largely predates the latest Iran escalation.
The afternoon adds the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow update for the second quarter at 16:00 CET from 1.7 per cent, and coupon supply, a 2-year note auction at 17:30 CET from a prior 4.189 per cent and a 5-year at 19:00 CET from 4.200 per cent. Canada contributes the Bank of Canada's Market Participants Survey at 16:30 CET.
Event Risk Calendar
[1] According to the IFO handbook, questionnaires go out to the panel (>10,000 firms) at the start of the month. A large share comes back in the first few days after dispatch; firms that haven't replied get a reminder around mid-month, which triggers a second big wave of responses. The survey is closed about one week before month-end, and questionnaires arriving later cannot be included in the calculation — they're only kept for micro-data research.