Tomorrow's Macro Roadmap: Japan Wages / AU inflation expectations / EZ final PMIs / Fed speak / US durable goods
The main macro event will be the US durable goods report for February at 14:30 CET. The Reuters consensus expects a -0.5% drop, while the Bloomberg consensus is looking for a -1% decline. The range of estimates, -5% to 4.3%, is also exceptionally wide. Focusing on the ex-transportation series might make more sense as it is less distorted.
Two Fed policymakers are also due to speak. Goolsbee has recently flipped toward inflation concern and flagged the oil-supply shock as "pretty tough," while Jefferson's Mar-26 speech framed energy effects as "relatively modest" but warned they could broaden. Any divergence between Goolsbee's Detroit Q&A tone and Jefferson's prepared remarks is the most likely source of late-session volatility.
Goolsbee has struck a cautious, hold-the-course tone, saying he is now more worried about inflation than unemployment amid a "fraught but intense" climate, with risks from the Middle East/Iran conflict threatening energy prices and supply chains. He still sees scope for rate cuts by end-2026 but wants "proof" inflation is tracking back to 2% before moving. On 2 April, he said an extended rise in oil costs would be a "pretty tough supply shock" that could lift inflation expectations. In the Chicago Magazine piece, he pivoted to institutional concerns, warning about threats to Fed independence.
Jefferson said the US economy continues to grow with resilient consumption and business investment, while the labour market is roughly in balance but vulnerable as hiring slows. Inflation remains above the 2% target, and he expects it to move higher in the near term due to Middle East-driven energy prices. He supported the FOMC's decision to hold the funds rate steady, arguing the stance supports the labour market while allowing inflation to resume its decline once tariff pass-through fades. On 26 March, he characterised the recent energy effects on inflation as "relatively modest". Still, he warned that an "extended bout of elevated energy prices could put upward pressure on a variety of other products."