Tomorrow's Macro Roadmap: JP Tankan / China PMI / CH PMI / US ISM, ADP & retail sales / Fed, BOC & ECB speak
Japan BoJ Tankan Q1 (01:50 CET) [HIGH IMPACT]
The first major business survey since the Strait of Hormuz escalation. The large manufacturers index is expected to moderate — consensus at 16 (from 15 prior), but views diverge. The non-manufacturing index (consensus 33, prior 34) and large capex plans (prior 12.6%) will also be closely watched — strong investment intentions would support the BoJ’s assessment that the virtuous wage-price cycle is intact.
BoE Financial Policy Committee Minutes (11:30 CET) — The FPC minutes will provide insight into UK financial stability assessments amid the energy shock and global uncertainty. The BoE has been flagging concerns about household debt-servicing capacity amid elevated mortgage rates.
US ISM Manufacturing — March (16:00 CET)
The marquee US release of the day. Manufacturing has been in expansion for two consecutive months (52.4 in Feb, 52.6 in Jan) — the best readings since late 2022. The question is whether the Middle East energy shock and supply chain concerns will erode momentum. The prices paid subcomponent is critical — it surged to 70.5 in February, and the flash PMI showed input prices rising to 65.5 in March.
US Retail Sales — February (14:30 CET)
A test of the US consumer’s resilience. January’s -0.2% m/m was depressed by frigid weather and weak auto sales. February should bounce on strong auto sales (+6.3% m/m unit sales) and higher gasoline prices, but the critical control group reading will show whether underlying spending is healthy. The CARTS index still points to healthy retail sales growth.