Tomorrow's Macro Roadmap: Swiss sight deposits, German Ifo, Fed & ECB speak
In Switzerland, the SNB will release its update on sight deposits for last week at 10:00 CET. They are far from a perfect proxy for SNB interventions in foreign exchange markets and are influenced by other factors, yet they remain worth monitoring. In its latest statement, the central bank reiterated its willingness to intervene as necessary.
The Ifo survey is the day's headline release and will be closely monitored for confirmation that the tentative rebound in European business sentiment has momentum. The consensus expects a slight improvement in the expectations and current conditions indicators, which seems to be supported by the recent rise in the Sentix and PMI figures.
Fed Governor Waller will speak at 14:00 CET. He dissented from the January FOMC decision to hold rates steady, arguing for a 25 basis-point cut instead. He contends that the policy rate remains restrictive. His core concern is severe labour market weakness — payrolls grew by only ~600,000 in 2025 versus a 10-year average of 1.9 million, and he warns that forthcoming benchmark revisions will likely show virtually zero net job growth. On inflation, Waller advocates “looking through” tariff-driven price increases as long as expectations remain anchored, noting that ex-tariff inflation is tracking near the 2% target. He cautions that labour market deterioration is harder to reverse once entrenched, making preemptive easing the appropriate policy response.