Tomorrow's Macro Roadmap: UK labour market, CA CPI, US ADP, N.Y. Empire, NAHB, Fed & ECB speak
The main event today will be the Canadian CPI. Wells Fargo expects headline to rise to 2.5% YoY as base effects peak. These base effects reflect the temporary GST/HST holiday that lowered prices between December 2024 and February 2025. Underlying measures (trimmed and weighted median) are expected to decline. 3-month averages of trimmed and weighted median are running at 1.45% and 1.85%, respectively. Their nowcast for the February report indicates the headline will fall to 1.8% — below the 2% target. The narrative is expected to shift from “elevated headline noise” to “cooling underlying core inflation.”
Fed Governor Barr is scheduled to speak on February 18 at 18:45 CET, delivering remarks titled "Artificial Intelligence and the Labour Market" at the New York Association for Business Economics (NYABE). He voted with the majority to maintain the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 per cent at the January 28, 2026, FOMC meeting.
President Daly is scheduled to deliver keynote remarks on "AI and the U.S. Economy" on Tuesday, February 17, 2026, at 20:30 CET, her first major public appearance since the January FOMC meeting. Following her remarks, she will participate in a moderated conversation with Bloomberg Tech's Ed Ludlow and take audience questions. Daly identified a “risky economic disconnect” between businesses and workers in her February 6 interview. Businesses remain “cautiously optimistic” with solid growth, easy hiring, and rising productivity. Workers, however, are less confident, worried about employment security in what Daly described as a “low-hiring, low-firing environment” that could shift quickly. She views risks to price stability versus maximum employment as “relatively balanced,” but sees vulnerabilities tilted toward the labour market. She indicated there is room to cut interest rates. Her February 17 keynote will focus on AI and the economy — this is Good luck today, and feel free to ping me in the chat to discuss markets and views!