Tomorrow'sMacro Roadmap: US PCE, GDP, durable goods & jobless claims / AU labour market / EZ consumer confidence / BOJ, ECB & Fed speak
Thursday is dominated by US PCE (14:30 CET) — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge and the week's marquee release — alongside US durable goods, the third estimate of Q1 GDP and jobless claims in the same 14:30 CET batch. The morning brings Australia's May employment report (03:30 CET), German GfK consumer confidence (08:00 CET) and French consumer confidence (08:45 CET). Central-bank speakers run through the day: BoJ's Tamura overnight (03:00 CET), the ECB's Lane (12:00 CET), Moulin (10:00 CET) and Cipollone (14:00 and 17:00 CET), and the Fed's Williams (21:40 CET), with the ECB Economic Bulletin at 10:00 CET.
Central Bank Speakers
Bank of Japan board member Naoki Tamura speaks at a meeting with local leaders in Hyogo at 03:00 CET (10:00 JST). The Bank raised its policy rate by 25bp to 1.00% on 16 June. At that meeting, Tamura, with Takada, objected to the framing that underlying inflation is only 'in the process of moving toward 2%', indicating that they believe it has already reached that level.
ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane joins a virtual panel at the 21st IEA World Congress in Belgrade at 12:00 CET. After the Governing Council raised all three key rates by 25bp on 11 June, Lane called the decision 'pretty straightforward' and said he expects a 'prolonged period of above-target inflation', noting the upper end of the ECB's neutral-rate range has 'crept up from 2.25% to 2.5%' and that the ECB may raise rates again if the evidence points to inflation concerns.
ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone has two appearances at 14:00 CET (the International Banking Federation board meeting in Frankfurt) and 17:00 CET (a digital-euro session at an Italian Senate seminar, online). He leads the ECB's digital-euro work and sits on the dovish side of the Governing Council.
New York Fed President and FOMC voter John Williams gives keynote remarks with Q&A at 21:40 CET. This is the first major Fed voice since the 17-June hawkish hold under Chair Warsh. On 3 June, Williams said 'Monetary policy is exactly in the right place' and that he did not see 'any need to raise or lower interest rates right now'.
03:30 CET — Australia Employment (May)
Employment fell 18.6k in April, and the unemployment rate jumped to 4.5%, the highest since 2021. Consensus looks for a rebound of about +25k in May and the unemployment rate to ease to 4.4% (participation was 66.7%). Many analysts read April's weakness as partly noise — Easter survey timing and the statistics bureau's switch to a new collection method — and expect a mechanical bounce-back, with the jobless rate slipping a tenth. The read-through to the RBA is contested. One camp argues a resilient jobs print — on top of the 24-June CPI — hardens the case for an August hike, noting the RBA still regards the labour market as 'a bit tight'. Another judges the hiking cycle is already done, with demand and pricing power fading.
14:30 CET — US PCE (May)
Core PCE — the Fed's preferred gauge — rose 0.2% in April for a 3.3% year-on-year rate. Consensus looks for 0.3% in May, lifting the annual rate to 3.4%. Headline PCE is seen up 0.5% on the month, pushing the year-on-year rate above 4% (from 3.8%). Analysts attribute the headline's move above 4% mainly to energy and gasoline. The print lands straight into the Fed's newly-opened hike debate: after the 17-June hawkish hold under Chair Warsh, the median dot now flags a possible 2026 hike and the market-implied odds of a September move jumped as well.
14:30 CET — US Durable Goods Orders (May, preliminary)
Headline durable goods orders jumped 7.9% in April. Consensus looks for a fall of about 4.5% in May, with orders ex-transport seen up about 0.7%. The swing is an aircraft payback: April's 7.9% jump came from a wave of commercial-aircraft orders that unwinds in May, while the underlying ex-transport reading should stay firm on data-centre and capital-goods demand.