GGMA Markets Briefing: Stocks Rise on Nvidia's Promise as Rate Hike Bets Build From Sydney to Seoul
Here is today’s Markets Briefing:
· Nvidia guided to revenue growth in fiscal 2028 far above street expectations and equity futures rose, with Korean chipmakers leading Asia.
· The Fed's preferred inflation gauge printed above consensus on the headline and money markets now fully price a hike by December, a day before Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech.
· The Bank of Korea hiked back-to-back and raised its growth forecast sharply, with its dot plot pointing higher still; the won firmed.
· Australia's sell-side stampeded towards rate hikes after the hot CPI, and household spending then smashed estimates; a November move is fully priced.
· BoJ Deputy Governor Himino kept a September hike fully live, stressing upside price risks; the yen slipped on the absence of a stronger signal.
· The WSJ reports the CIA director's Moscow trip was a warning to Russia not to attack NATO, while Kremlin sources say Moscow is preparing to escalate in Ukraine; wheat sits at a three-year high on Black Sea attacks.
Today's Macro Roadmap: Euro-area M3 at 10:00 CET, the ECB's July account at 13:30 CET, then the US 14:30 CET block with the advance goods trade balance, jobless claims and inventories, EIA natural gas at 16:30 CET, the Kansas City Fed index at 17:00 CET and a seven-year auction at 19:00 CET. Cleveland Fed President Hammack appears on CNBC at 16:00 CET and Fox Business at 19:00 CET. Fed Chair Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole speech on Friday.
Full Article:
Equity futures rose as Nvidia guided to roughly 70% revenue growth in fiscal 2028, far above the roughly 45% analysts had pencilled in, reinforcing the case that the AI investment cycle has years to run (Reuters) (BBG).
CFO Colette Kress said Nvidia would be growing faster still with more supply, guided the current quarter to $108 billion against a $105.2 billion consensus, and warned margins will narrow for a few quarters on surging memory costs (BBG). The Nasdaq contract added 0.57% to 29,456 and the S&P 500 0.30% to 7,713, with Korean chipmakers leading Asia and European futures firmer, the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.23% at 6,502 (BBG). Salesforce jumped in late trading on an $11.5 billion quarterly sales outlook and a deepened Anthropic partnership that integrates its products within Claude, CEO Marc Benioff telling sceptics it is time to stop the 'SaaSpocalypse' nonsense (BBG) (BBG).
In the US, July's headline PCE rose 0.2% on the month with the annual rate at 3.7%, a tenth above consensus on both counts, while core came in line at 3.3% (CNBC). Treasuries slipped, two-year yields up a basis point to 4.22% with the ten-year little changed at 4.65%, and money markets now fully price a Fed hike by December (BBG). Longer-horizon inflation compensation edged up, the five-year five-year forward at 2.55% (CNBC). Fed Chair Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole tomorrow, and Reuters reports investors want one thing above all: a framework for how the Fed gets inflation back to 2%, after Warsh abandoned forward guidance and suggested the bond market could do some of the tightening for him (Reuters). The WSJ's Nick Timiraos reports the Fed chairman is heading to Jackson Hole without a clear stance on inflation, the question splitting his committee being whether it is above target from one-off shocks or an economy running too hot; three officials voted to hike last month, the most dissents in a decade (WSJ). Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack appears on CNBC at 16:00 CET and Fox Business at 19:00 CET (LS).
Regarding the RBA, repricing entered its second day. Commonwealth Bank and Goldman Sachs moved to November hike calls with September risk, ANZ to November, and Deutsche Bank's Phil O'Donaghoe and NAB's Sally Auld went furthest with outright September calls, O'Donaghoe calling underlying inflation intolerably high (BBG). The data kept co-operating with the hawks: July household spending rose 1.1% on the month against a 0.3% consensus and 7.0% on the year (BBG), even as second-quarter private capital expenditure fell 3.6% where growth of 0.8% was expected (LS). Three-year yields rose seven basis points to 4.67%, the highest in more than a month (BBG). Our own pricing has September at 47% against 33% yesterday, with a November move fully priced.
In Asia, the Bank of Korea delivered a back-to-back hike to 3.00%, as expected but not unanimously, and Governor Shin Hyun-song called it pre-emptive: the 2026 growth forecast jumped to 3.3% from 2.6% on the AI export boom, core inflation was revised up, and the bank's own dot plot points a further quarter-point higher within six months (WSJ). The won firmed 0.29% to 1,380.76 (WSJ). In Japan, Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino kept September fully live without arming the signalling machine, saying the Bank must pay greater attention to upside price risks than in the past and will debate at every meeting (BBG) (Reuters). The yen slipped towards 159.35 on the absence of a clearer hint, with swaps implying roughly an 82% chance of a September move (BBG). Weekly flow data showed Japanese investors selling foreign bonds at pace, consistent with money coming home ahead of a move (LS). New Zealand's decision lands next week with a hike almost fully priced, and bonds fell across Australia, New Zealand and Japan (BBG).
Currently, STIR traders price 9 basis points of tightening for the September Fed meeting, a 36% probability of a rate rise, and 26 basis points cumulatively by December. For the ECB, they price 24 basis points for September, a 97% probability, and 42 basis points cumulatively by December. For the BoJ, they price 20 basis points for September, an 81% probability, and 40 basis points cumulatively by December. For the RBA, they price 12 basis points for September, a 47% probability, and 28 basis points cumulatively by December.
Regarding US bonds, Bloomberg reports sell-side strategists now treat the 4 November refunding as a wildcard, with options running from shifting new borrowing into bills to outright cuts in long-bond auction sizes, and one bank raising the tail risk that the 20-year bond is eliminated altogether (BBG). The common thread is that Bessent's buybacks are read as a bridge to a maturity-shortening announcement rather than an end in themselves (BBG). Gold traded back above $4,600, up 0.38% at 4,608 and nearly 15% this month, as the debasement trade met fresh Fed-independence headlines: Governor Lisa Cook again denied the mortgage-fraud allegations as the President weighs renewing his effort to remove her (BBG).
In geopolitics, the WSJ reports CIA Director John Ratcliffe went to warn Russia not to attack NATO countries, after intelligence assessments that Vladimir Putin could test the alliance with a limited assault on a Baltic state (WSJ). Bloomberg's Kremlin sources say Russia is preparing to escalate missile attacks on Ukraine, having concluded the negotiations are at a dead end (BBG). The market expression is in food: wheat sits at a three-year high on Black Sea attacks curbing shipments (BBG). Washington's cyber front widened too, with the DOJ saying it disrupted China-linked hackers who targeted NASA, the Federal Reserve and the Senate (Yahoo). On the other war, the Hormuz diplomacy advanced again, with the IRGC saying revenue-sharing terms with Oman have been agreed and Qatar's prime minister travelling to Tehran today to relaunch the wider talks (Yahoo) (Reuters), and crude extended its slide, Brent down 1.02% to 86.94 and WTI 1.09% to 81.33 (Yahoo) (BBG).
In Europe, the French 2027 budget is due in parliament by 6 October, with a hung assembly, and every procedural route ending in more issuance (USNews). Macron's potential successors clash over the economic future at the Medef conference this evening, with Marine Le Pen consistently topping first-round polls (BBG). In Germany, the AfD holds a wide lead ahead of the 6 September Saxony-Anhalt vote that could produce the country's first far-right-led state government (BBG), and Chancellor Friedrich Merz signalled a tougher trade stance on China ahead of October's EU summit (BBG). The ECB publishes the account of its July meeting at 13:30 CET (LS).
In stocks elsewhere, the ASX fell 0.93% to 8,988 as the rate repricing did its work (BBG), the Nikkei eased 0.45% to 66,110 (BBG), Hong Kong slipped 0.37% to 25,575 as China's industrial profit growth cooled to 11.2%, the slowest this year (CNBC), while the CSI 300 rose 0.71% (BBG). Meta agreed to pay up to eighteen billion dollars to settle the states' teen-harm cases, with payments scaling only if YouTube, TikTok and Snap accept similar terms (JapanTimes). Pernod Ricard cut its medium-term growth outlook to the bottom of its range on US weakness (BBG).
In currencies, the dollar index was flat at 99.153, the Australian dollar held at 0.7183 near its recent high (BBG), and the forint led the smaller gainers. In commodities beyond oil and gold, copper eased 0.08% to 511, consolidating after the squeeze (BBG), and Bitcoin firmed 0.36% to 78,725.
Data and the day ahead: German GfK consumer confidence jumped to -26.6 from -29.6, well past the -29.5 consensus and the best reading in months (LS). Australia's July household spending rose 1.1% on the month and 7.0% on the year against consensus of 0.3% and 5.7%, while second-quarter private capex fell 3.6% against expected growth of 0.8% (LS) (BBG). China's July industrial profits grew 11.2%, the slowest this year (CNBC). Still to come: euro-area M3 at 10:00 CET, the ECB's July account at 13:30 CET, then the US 14:30 CET block with the advance goods trade balance, jobless claims and inventories, EIA natural gas storage at 16:30 CET, the Kansas City Fed index at 17:00 CET, and a seven-year auction at 19:00 CET (LS). Cleveland Fed President Hammack is on CNBC at 16:00 CET and Fox Business at 19:00 CET, and Fed Chair Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole speech on Friday (LS) (Reuters).
Time Stamp: 27 August 2026, 08:43 CET