GGMA Markets Briefing: Tech Selloff Sweeps Asia as Oil's Weekly Surge Revives the Inflation Threat
A global retreat from technology shares deepened in Asia, as doubts over the returns on hundreds of billions of dollars of artificial-intelligence spending collided with an oil surge that has revived fears of sticky inflation (BBG) (BBG). Japan's Nikkei led the region lower, falling 2.73%, with regional chip bellwethers among the hardest-hit after a Wall Street sell-off that saw the worst session in a month (BBG). The Magnificent Seven shed hundreds of billions in value overnight as AI sceptics trimmed exposure (BBG), with Alphabet and Tesla setting the tone on Thursday after raising capital-spending plans and reporting profit disappointments, respectively.
The selling was broad across Asia. Mainland China's CSI 300 fell 1.36%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 1.15%, and the MSCI Emerging Markets gauge slid 1.21%, while Australia's ASX 200 eased 0.90% (BBG). Europe looked steadier into the open, with DAX futures up 0.33% and the Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.26%, and US contracts pointed to a softer restart, the Nasdaq futures off 0.15% (BBG).
Central banks anchor the backdrop. The European Central Bank held on Thursday to gauge the Iran war's impact on inflation (BBG), with officials signalling that September is the live meeting (BBG). Governing Council member Martin Kocher called the next move "a hike or a hold," flagged recent oil-market developments as "concerning" and said the ECB would act if the inflation outlook deteriorated, while seeing only anecdotal evidence of second-round effects. Ülo Kaasik warned the ECB sees a risk of higher inflation from war escalation, and Joachim Nagel said the bank is well placed to respond to the energy-price shock (Investing). Money markets have moved to price in a Federal Reserve rate increase by September as higher oil lifts inflation risk, with the September meeting now around 72% priced (BBG) (CNBC), while swaps put the ECB near 90% for a September hike. In Japan, the Bank of Japan meets next week, with barely any move priced in for that decision (Reuters).
In currencies, the dollar was little changed overnight but headed for its biggest weekly gain in a month, the index at 101.41 and up 0.64% on the week (BBG). The yen was the focus, near its weakest in about four decades at 163.82 per dollar after its worst week since May (BBG), prompting Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama to say Japan is ready to take bold, decisive action on the currency as needed (Biztoc) (LS). The US Treasury's semi-annual report called out China over a lack of currency transparency and noted that yen weakness had persisted despite a narrowing US-Japan rate gap (BBG). Elsewhere, the Korean won firmed 0.62% against the dollar, and the Australian and New Zealand dollars each added around 0.10% (BBG).
Government bonds remained under pressure as the oil spike revived inflation fears, extending losses for investors who had bet the year's rout was over (BBG). Japan's 10-year future fell 0.30%, leaving the 10-year yield firmer at 2.811%, and Australian yields rose, the 10-year up about 0.4 basis points to 5.08% (BBG). The German Bund futures firmed 0.12% after German yields touched a 15-year high before the ECB decision (BBG), while US yields were little changed overnight after Thursday's climb, with the 10-year at 4.70% (BBG). In the United Kingdom, the Bank of England's coming decision on bond sales has been complicated by a surge in gilt yields (BBG).
Commodities set the tone even as crude paused. West Texas Intermediate slipped 0.86% overnight but remains up 12.1% on the week, after Houthi attacks on tankers in the Red Sea opened a new front in the Middle East conflict and a spate of strikes hit the Caspian Pipeline terminal that carries most of Kazakhstan's crude (Reuters), with OPEC+ nonetheless expected to raise output targets again from September (Reuters). Gold fell 0.59% on the firmer dollar and rising rate-hike bets (WSJ) (CNBC), even as China's bullion imports surged after an earlier price slump (BBG). Bitcoin edged up 0.25% (BBG).
On the data run, Japan's June inflation firmed, the headline rate rising to 1.7% from 1.5% and the core ex-fresh-food measure to 1.6% from 1.4%, both in line, though the core-core gauge eased to 1.7%, a touch below the 1.8% consensus, a mix that keeps the Bank of Japan on a gradual tightening path (WSJ) (JapanTimes).
UK consumer confidence jumped to minus 17 from minus 23, far above the minus 22 consensus and the strongest read in months, a lift dubbed the "Burnham bounce" (WSJ). Australia's flash composite PMI leapt to 52.6 from 50.4 and Japan's held in expansion at 53.1. Just after the capture, UK retail sales delivered a large upside surprise, rising 1.0% on the month against an expected 0.3% fall and 4.2% on the year, reinforcing the consumer rebound.
The corporate tape was led by the AI-spending read. Intel delivered a surprisingly strong revenue forecast, pointing to a data-centre turnaround, and JPMorgan lifted its price target sharply (WSJ) (LS); SAP's cloud revenue grew faster than expected (BBG); Volkswagen cut its full-year revenue outlook as a deepening sales slump in China intensified pressure on its turnaround (LS); Allianz agreed to buy HSBC's Singapore insurance unit as it expands in Asia (LS); and Advanced Micro Devices unveiled data-centre chips it says will outperform Nvidia's (BBG).
The day ahead centres on the July flash PMIs, which sweep through France, Germany, the euro area and the UK from 09:15 CET and the United States at 15:45 CET, alongside the Bank of England's Decision Maker Panel this morning (BBG). The Bank of Russia decides at 11:30 CET, the US tariff backdrop stays live with new duties of between 10% and 12.5% on many economies (Luxtimes) (Politico), and the ECB's Philip Lane speaks at 17:30 CET. Looking to next week, the Federal Reserve meets on 28-29 July and the Bank of Japan on 30-31 July, with mega-cap technology earnings the next major test of the AI trade.
Time Stamp: 24 July 2026, 07:51 CET
A global retreat from technology shares deepened in Asia, as doubts over the returns on hundreds of billions of dollars of artificial-intelligence spending collided with an oil surge that has revived fears of sticky inflation (BBG) (BBG). Japan's Nikkei led the region lower, falling 2.73%, with regional chip bellwethers among the hardest-hit after a Wall Street sell-off that saw the worst session in a month (BBG). The Magnificent Seven shed hundreds of billions in value overnight as AI sceptics trimmed exposure (BBG), with Alphabet and Tesla setting the tone on Thursday after raising capital-spending plans and reporting profit disappointments, respectively.
The selling was broad across Asia. Mainland China's CSI 300 fell 1.36%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 1.15%, and the MSCI Emerging Markets gauge slid 1.21%, while Australia's ASX 200 eased 0.90% (BBG). Europe looked steadier into the open, with DAX futures up 0.33% and the Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.26%, and US contracts pointed to a softer restart, the Nasdaq futures off 0.15% (BBG).
Central banks anchor the backdrop. The European Central Bank held on Thursday to gauge the Iran war's impact on inflation (BBG), with officials signalling that September is the live meeting (BBG). Governing Council member Martin Kocher called the next move "a hike or a hold," flagged recent oil-market developments as "concerning" and said the ECB would act if the inflation outlook deteriorated, while seeing only anecdotal evidence of second-round effects. Ülo Kaasik warned the ECB sees a risk of higher inflation from war escalation, and Joachim Nagel said the bank is well placed to respond to the energy-price shock (Investing). Money markets have moved to price in a Federal Reserve rate increase by September as higher oil lifts inflation risk, with the September meeting now around 72% priced (BBG) (CNBC), while swaps put the ECB near 90% for a September hike. In Japan, the Bank of Japan meets next week, with barely any move priced in for that decision (Reuters).
In currencies, the dollar was little changed overnight but headed for its biggest weekly gain in a month, the index at 101.41 and up 0.64% on the week (BBG). The yen was the focus, near its weakest in about four decades at 163.82 per dollar after its worst week since May (BBG), prompting Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama to say Japan is ready to take bold, decisive action on the currency as needed (Biztoc) (LS). The US Treasury's semi-annual report called out China over a lack of currency transparency and noted that yen weakness had persisted despite a narrowing US-Japan rate gap (BBG). Elsewhere, the Korean won firmed 0.62% against the dollar, and the Australian and New Zealand dollars each added around 0.10% (BBG).
Government bonds remained under pressure as the oil spike revived inflation fears, extending losses for investors who had bet the year's rout was over (BBG). Japan's 10-year future fell 0.30%, leaving the 10-year yield firmer at 2.811%, and Australian yields rose, the 10-year up about 0.4 basis points to 5.08% (BBG). The German Bund futures firmed 0.12% after German yields touched a 15-year high before the ECB decision (BBG), while US yields were little changed overnight after Thursday's climb, with the 10-year at 4.70% (BBG). In the United Kingdom, the Bank of England's coming decision on bond sales has been complicated by a surge in gilt yields (BBG).
Commodities set the tone even as crude paused. West Texas Intermediate slipped 0.86% overnight but remains up 12.1% on the week, after Houthi attacks on tankers in the Red Sea opened a new front in the Middle East conflict and a spate of strikes hit the Caspian Pipeline terminal that carries most of Kazakhstan's crude (Reuters), with OPEC+ nonetheless expected to raise output targets again from September (Reuters). Gold fell 0.59% on the firmer dollar and rising rate-hike bets (WSJ) (CNBC), even as China's bullion imports surged after an earlier price slump (BBG). Bitcoin edged up 0.25% (BBG).
On the data run, Japan's June inflation firmed, the headline rate rising to 1.7% from 1.5% and the core ex-fresh-food measure to 1.6% from 1.4%, both in line, though the core-core gauge eased to 1.7%, a touch below the 1.8% consensus, a mix that keeps the Bank of Japan on a gradual tightening path (WSJ) (JapanTimes).
UK consumer confidence jumped to minus 17 from minus 23, far above the minus 22 consensus and the strongest read in months, a lift dubbed the "Burnham bounce" (WSJ). Australia's flash composite PMI leapt to 52.6 from 50.4 and Japan's held in expansion at 53.1. Just after the capture, UK retail sales delivered a large upside surprise, rising 1.0% on the month against an expected 0.3% fall and 4.2% on the year, reinforcing the consumer rebound.
The corporate tape was led by the AI-spending read. Intel delivered a surprisingly strong revenue forecast, pointing to a data-centre turnaround, and JPMorgan lifted its price target sharply (WSJ) (LS); SAP's cloud revenue grew faster than expected (BBG); Volkswagen cut its full-year revenue outlook as a deepening sales slump in China intensified pressure on its turnaround (LS); Allianz agreed to buy HSBC's Singapore insurance unit as it expands in Asia (LS); and Advanced Micro Devices unveiled data-centre chips it says will outperform Nvidia's (BBG).
The day ahead centres on the July flash PMIs, which sweep through France, Germany, the euro area and the UK from 09:15 CET and the United States at 15:45 CET, alongside the Bank of England's Decision Maker Panel this morning (BBG). The Bank of Russia decides at 11:30 CET, the US tariff backdrop stays live with new duties of between 10% and 12.5% on many economies (Luxtimes) (Politico), and the ECB's Philip Lane speaks at 17:30 CET. Looking to next week, the Federal Reserve meets on 28-29 July and the Bank of Japan on 30-31 July, with mega-cap technology earnings the next major test of the AI trade.
Time Stamp: 24 July 2026, 07:51 CET
A global retreat from technology shares deepened in Asia, as doubts over the returns on hundreds of billions of dollars of artificial-intelligence spending collided with an oil surge that has revived fears of sticky inflation (BBG) (BBG). Japan's Nikkei led the region lower, falling 2.73%, with regional chip bellwethers among the hardest-hit after a Wall Street sell-off that saw the worst session in a month (BBG). The Magnificent Seven shed hundreds of billions in value overnight as AI sceptics trimmed exposure (BBG), with Alphabet and Tesla setting the tone on Thursday after raising capital-spending plans and reporting profit disappointments, respectively.
The selling was broad across Asia. Mainland China's CSI 300 fell 1.36%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 1.15%, and the MSCI Emerging Markets gauge slid 1.21%, while Australia's ASX 200 eased 0.90% (BBG). Europe looked steadier into the open, with DAX futures up 0.33% and the Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.26%, and US contracts pointed to a softer restart, the Nasdaq futures off 0.15% (BBG).
Central banks anchor the backdrop. The European Central Bank held on Thursday to gauge the Iran war's impact on inflation (BBG), with officials signalling that September is the live meeting (BBG). Governing Council member Martin Kocher called the next move "a hike or a hold," flagged recent oil-market developments as "concerning" and said the ECB would act if the inflation outlook deteriorated, while seeing only anecdotal evidence of second-round effects. Ülo Kaasik warned the ECB sees a risk of higher inflation from war escalation, and Joachim Nagel said the bank is well placed to respond to the energy-price shock (Investing). Money markets have moved to price in a Federal Reserve rate increase by September as higher oil lifts inflation risk, with the September meeting now around 72% priced (BBG) (CNBC), while swaps put the ECB near 90% for a September hike. In Japan, the Bank of Japan meets next week, with barely any move priced in for that decision (Reuters).
In currencies, the dollar was little changed overnight but headed for its biggest weekly gain in a month, the index at 101.41 and up 0.64% on the week (BBG). The yen was the focus, near its weakest in about four decades at 163.82 per dollar after its worst week since May (BBG), prompting Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama to say Japan is ready to take bold, decisive action on the currency as needed (Biztoc) (LS). The US Treasury's semi-annual report called out China over a lack of currency transparency and noted that yen weakness had persisted despite a narrowing US-Japan rate gap (BBG). Elsewhere, the Korean won firmed 0.62% against the dollar, and the Australian and New Zealand dollars each added around 0.10% (BBG).
Government bonds remained under pressure as the oil spike revived inflation fears, extending losses for investors who had bet the year's rout was over (BBG). Japan's 10-year future fell 0.30%, leaving the 10-year yield firmer at 2.811%, and Australian yields rose, the 10-year up about 0.4 basis points to 5.08% (BBG). The German Bund futures firmed 0.12% after German yields touched a 15-year high before the ECB decision (BBG), while US yields were little changed overnight after Thursday's climb, with the 10-year at 4.70% (BBG). In the United Kingdom, the Bank of England's coming decision on bond sales has been complicated by a surge in gilt yields (BBG).
Commodities set the tone even as crude paused. West Texas Intermediate slipped 0.86% overnight but remains up 12.1% on the week, after Houthi attacks on tankers in the Red Sea opened a new front in the Middle East conflict and a spate of strikes hit the Caspian Pipeline terminal that carries most of Kazakhstan's crude (Reuters), with OPEC+ nonetheless expected to raise output targets again from September (Reuters). Gold fell 0.59% on the firmer dollar and rising rate-hike bets (WSJ) (CNBC), even as China's bullion imports surged after an earlier price slump (BBG). Bitcoin edged up 0.25% (BBG).
On the data run, Japan's June inflation firmed, the headline rate rising to 1.7% from 1.5% and the core ex-fresh-food measure to 1.6% from 1.4%, both in line, though the core-core gauge eased to 1.7%, a touch below the 1.8% consensus, a mix that keeps the Bank of Japan on a gradual tightening path (WSJ) (JapanTimes).
UK consumer confidence jumped to minus 17 from minus 23, far above the minus 22 consensus and the strongest read in months, a lift dubbed the "Burnham bounce" (WSJ). Australia's flash composite PMI leapt to 52.6 from 50.4 and Japan's held in expansion at 53.1. Just after the capture, UK retail sales delivered a large upside surprise, rising 1.0% on the month against an expected 0.3% fall and 4.2% on the year, reinforcing the consumer rebound.
The corporate tape was led by the AI-spending read. Intel delivered a surprisingly strong revenue forecast, pointing to a data-centre turnaround, and JPMorgan lifted its price target sharply (WSJ) (LS); SAP's cloud revenue grew faster than expected (BBG); Volkswagen cut its full-year revenue outlook as a deepening sales slump in China intensified pressure on its turnaround (LS); Allianz agreed to buy HSBC's Singapore insurance unit as it expands in Asia (LS); and Advanced Micro Devices unveiled data-centre chips it says will outperform Nvidia's (BBG).
The day ahead centres on the July flash PMIs, which sweep through France, Germany, the euro area and the UK from 09:15 CET and the United States at 15:45 CET, alongside the Bank of England's Decision Maker Panel this morning (BBG). The Bank of Russia decides at 11:30 CET, the US tariff backdrop stays live with new duties of between 10% and 12.5% on many economies (Luxtimes) (Politico), and the ECB's Philip Lane speaks at 17:30 CET. Looking to next week, the Federal Reserve meets on 28-29 July and the Bank of Japan on 30-31 July, with mega-cap technology earnings the next major test of the AI trade.
Time Stamp: 24 July 2026, 07:51 CET
A global retreat from technology shares deepened in Asia, as doubts over the returns on hundreds of billions of dollars of artificial-intelligence spending collided with an oil surge that has revived fears of sticky inflation (BBG) (BBG). Japan's Nikkei led the region lower, falling 2.73%, with regional chip bellwethers among the hardest-hit after a Wall Street sell-off that saw the worst session in a month (BBG). The Magnificent Seven shed hundreds of billions in value overnight as AI sceptics trimmed exposure (BBG), with Alphabet and Tesla setting the tone on Thursday after raising capital-spending plans and reporting profit disappointments, respectively.
The selling was broad across Asia. Mainland China's CSI 300 fell 1.36%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 1.15%, and the MSCI Emerging Markets gauge slid 1.21%, while Australia's ASX 200 eased 0.90% (BBG). Europe looked steadier into the open, with DAX futures up 0.33% and the Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.26%, and US contracts pointed to a softer restart, the Nasdaq futures off 0.15% (BBG).
Central banks anchor the backdrop. The European Central Bank held on Thursday to gauge the Iran war's impact on inflation (BBG), with officials signalling that September is the live meeting (BBG). Governing Council member Martin Kocher called the next move "a hike or a hold," flagged recent oil-market developments as "concerning" and said the ECB would act if the inflation outlook deteriorated, while seeing only anecdotal evidence of second-round effects. Ülo Kaasik warned the ECB sees a risk of higher inflation from war escalation, and Joachim Nagel said the bank is well placed to respond to the energy-price shock (Investing). Money markets have moved to price in a Federal Reserve rate increase by September as higher oil lifts inflation risk, with the September meeting now around 72% priced (BBG) (CNBC), while swaps put the ECB near 90% for a September hike. In Japan, the Bank of Japan meets next week, with barely any move priced in for that decision (Reuters).
In currencies, the dollar was little changed overnight but headed for its biggest weekly gain in a month, the index at 101.41 and up 0.64% on the week (BBG). The yen was the focus, near its weakest in about four decades at 163.82 per dollar after its worst week since May (BBG), prompting Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama to say Japan is ready to take bold, decisive action on the currency as needed (Biztoc) (LS). The US Treasury's semi-annual report called out China over a lack of currency transparency and noted that yen weakness had persisted despite a narrowing US-Japan rate gap (BBG). Elsewhere, the Korean won firmed 0.62% against the dollar, and the Australian and New Zealand dollars each added around 0.10% (BBG).
Government bonds remained under pressure as the oil spike revived inflation fears, extending losses for investors who had bet the year's rout was over (BBG). Japan's 10-year future fell 0.30%, leaving the 10-year yield firmer at 2.811%, and Australian yields rose, the 10-year up about 0.4 basis points to 5.08% (BBG). The German Bund futures firmed 0.12% after German yields touched a 15-year high before the ECB decision (BBG), while US yields were little changed overnight after Thursday's climb, with the 10-year at 4.70% (BBG). In the United Kingdom, the Bank of England's coming decision on bond sales has been complicated by a surge in gilt yields (BBG).
Commodities set the tone even as crude paused. West Texas Intermediate slipped 0.86% overnight but remains up 12.1% on the week, after Houthi attacks on tankers in the Red Sea opened a new front in the Middle East conflict and a spate of strikes hit the Caspian Pipeline terminal that carries most of Kazakhstan's crude (Reuters), with OPEC+ nonetheless expected to raise output targets again from September (Reuters). Gold fell 0.59% on the firmer dollar and rising rate-hike bets (WSJ) (CNBC), even as China's bullion imports surged after an earlier price slump (BBG). Bitcoin edged up 0.25% (BBG).
On the data run, Japan's June inflation firmed, the headline rate rising to 1.7% from 1.5% and the core ex-fresh-food measure to 1.6% from 1.4%, both in line, though the core-core gauge eased to 1.7%, a touch below the 1.8% consensus, a mix that keeps the Bank of Japan on a gradual tightening path (WSJ) (JapanTimes).
UK consumer confidence jumped to minus 17 from minus 23, far above the minus 22 consensus and the strongest read in months, a lift dubbed the "Burnham bounce" (WSJ). Australia's flash composite PMI leapt to 52.6 from 50.4 and Japan's held in expansion at 53.1. Just after the capture, UK retail sales delivered a large upside surprise, rising 1.0% on the month against an expected 0.3% fall and 4.2% on the year, reinforcing the consumer rebound.
The corporate tape was led by the AI-spending read. Intel delivered a surprisingly strong revenue forecast, pointing to a data-centre turnaround, and JPMorgan lifted its price target sharply (WSJ) (LS); SAP's cloud revenue grew faster than expected (BBG); Volkswagen cut its full-year revenue outlook as a deepening sales slump in China intensified pressure on its turnaround (LS); Allianz agreed to buy HSBC's Singapore insurance unit as it expands in Asia (LS); and Advanced Micro Devices unveiled data-centre chips it says will outperform Nvidia's (BBG).
The day ahead centres on the July flash PMIs, which sweep through France, Germany, the euro area and the UK from 09:15 CET and the United States at 15:45 CET, alongside the Bank of England's Decision Maker Panel this morning (BBG). The Bank of Russia decides at 11:30 CET, the US tariff backdrop stays live with new duties of between 10% and 12.5% on many economies (Luxtimes) (Politico), and the ECB's Philip Lane speaks at 17:30 CET. Looking to next week, the Federal Reserve meets on 28-29 July and the Bank of Japan on 30-31 July, with mega-cap technology earnings the next major test of the AI trade.
Time Stamp: 24 July 2026, 07:51 CET
A global retreat from technology shares deepened in Asia, as doubts over the returns on hundreds of billions of dollars of artificial-intelligence spending collided with an oil surge that has revived fears of sticky inflation (BBG) (BBG). Japan's Nikkei led the region lower, falling 2.73%, with regional chip bellwethers among the hardest-hit after a Wall Street sell-off that saw the worst session in a month (BBG). The Magnificent Seven shed hundreds of billions in value overnight as AI sceptics trimmed exposure (BBG), with Alphabet and Tesla setting the tone on Thursday after raising capital-spending plans and reporting profit disappointments, respectively.
The selling was broad across Asia. Mainland China's CSI 300 fell 1.36%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 1.15%, and the MSCI Emerging Markets gauge slid 1.21%, while Australia's ASX 200 eased 0.90% (BBG). Europe looked steadier into the open, with DAX futures up 0.33% and the Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.26%, and US contracts pointed to a softer restart, the Nasdaq futures off 0.15% (BBG).
Central banks anchor the backdrop. The European Central Bank held on Thursday to gauge the Iran war's impact on inflation (BBG), with officials signalling that September is the live meeting (BBG). Governing Council member Martin Kocher called the next move "a hike or a hold," flagged recent oil-market developments as "concerning" and said the ECB would act if the inflation outlook deteriorated, while seeing only anecdotal evidence of second-round effects. Ülo Kaasik warned the ECB sees a risk of higher inflation from war escalation, and Joachim Nagel said the bank is well placed to respond to the energy-price shock (Investing). Money markets have moved to price in a Federal Reserve rate increase by September as higher oil lifts inflation risk, with the September meeting now around 72% priced (BBG) (CNBC), while swaps put the ECB near 90% for a September hike. In Japan, the Bank of Japan meets next week, with barely any move priced in for that decision (Reuters).
In currencies, the dollar was little changed overnight but headed for its biggest weekly gain in a month, the index at 101.41 and up 0.64% on the week (BBG). The yen was the focus, near its weakest in about four decades at 163.82 per dollar after its worst week since May (BBG), prompting Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama to say Japan is ready to take bold, decisive action on the currency as needed (Biztoc) (LS). The US Treasury's semi-annual report called out China over a lack of currency transparency and noted that yen weakness had persisted despite a narrowing US-Japan rate gap (BBG). Elsewhere, the Korean won firmed 0.62% against the dollar, and the Australian and New Zealand dollars each added around 0.10% (BBG).
Government bonds remained under pressure as the oil spike revived inflation fears, extending losses for investors who had bet the year's rout was over (BBG). Japan's 10-year future fell 0.30%, leaving the 10-year yield firmer at 2.811%, and Australian yields rose, the 10-year up about 0.4 basis points to 5.08% (BBG). The German Bund futures firmed 0.12% after German yields touched a 15-year high before the ECB decision (BBG), while US yields were little changed overnight after Thursday's climb, with the 10-year at 4.70% (BBG). In the United Kingdom, the Bank of England's coming decision on bond sales has been complicated by a surge in gilt yields (BBG).
Commodities set the tone even as crude paused. West Texas Intermediate slipped 0.86% overnight but remains up 12.1% on the week, after Houthi attacks on tankers in the Red Sea opened a new front in the Middle East conflict and a spate of strikes hit the Caspian Pipeline terminal that carries most of Kazakhstan's crude (Reuters), with OPEC+ nonetheless expected to raise output targets again from September (Reuters). Gold fell 0.59% on the firmer dollar and rising rate-hike bets (WSJ) (CNBC), even as China's bullion imports surged after an earlier price slump (BBG). Bitcoin edged up 0.25% (BBG).
On the data run, Japan's June inflation firmed, the headline rate rising to 1.7% from 1.5% and the core ex-fresh-food measure to 1.6% from 1.4%, both in line, though the core-core gauge eased to 1.7%, a touch below the 1.8% consensus, a mix that keeps the Bank of Japan on a gradual tightening path (WSJ) (JapanTimes).
UK consumer confidence jumped to minus 17 from minus 23, far above the minus 22 consensus and the strongest read in months, a lift dubbed the "Burnham bounce" (WSJ). Australia's flash composite PMI leapt to 52.6 from 50.4 and Japan's held in expansion at 53.1. Just after the capture, UK retail sales delivered a large upside surprise, rising 1.0% on the month against an expected 0.3% fall and 4.2% on the year, reinforcing the consumer rebound.
The corporate tape was led by the AI-spending read. Intel delivered a surprisingly strong revenue forecast, pointing to a data-centre turnaround, and JPMorgan lifted its price target sharply (WSJ) (LS); SAP's cloud revenue grew faster than expected (BBG); Volkswagen cut its full-year revenue outlook as a deepening sales slump in China intensified pressure on its turnaround (LS); Allianz agreed to buy HSBC's Singapore insurance unit as it expands in Asia (LS); and Advanced Micro Devices unveiled data-centre chips it says will outperform Nvidia's (BBG).
The day ahead centres on the July flash PMIs, which sweep through France, Germany, the euro area and the UK from 09:15 CET and the United States at 15:45 CET, alongside the Bank of England's Decision Maker Panel this morning (BBG). The Bank of Russia decides at 11:30 CET, the US tariff backdrop stays live with new duties of between 10% and 12.5% on many economies (Luxtimes) (Politico), and the ECB's Philip Lane speaks at 17:30 CET. Looking to next week, the Federal Reserve meets on 28-29 July and the Bank of Japan on 30-31 July, with mega-cap technology earnings the next major test of the AI trade.
Time Stamp: 24 July 2026, 07:51 CET
A global retreat from technology shares deepened in Asia, as doubts over the returns on hundreds of billions of dollars of artificial-intelligence spending collided with an oil surge that has revived fears of sticky inflation (BBG) (BBG). Japan's Nikkei led the region lower, falling 2.73%, with regional chip bellwethers among the hardest-hit after a Wall Street sell-off that saw the worst session in a month (BBG). The Magnificent Seven shed hundreds of billions in value overnight as AI sceptics trimmed exposure (BBG), with Alphabet and Tesla setting the tone on Thursday after raising capital-spending plans and reporting profit disappointments, respectively.
The selling was broad across Asia. Mainland China's CSI 300 fell 1.36%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 1.15%, and the MSCI Emerging Markets gauge slid 1.21%, while Australia's ASX 200 eased 0.90% (BBG). Europe looked steadier into the open, with DAX futures up 0.33% and the Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.26%, and US contracts pointed to a softer restart, the Nasdaq futures off 0.15% (BBG).
Central banks anchor the backdrop. The European Central Bank held on Thursday to gauge the Iran war's impact on inflation (BBG), with officials signalling that September is the live meeting (BBG). Governing Council member Martin Kocher called the next move "a hike or a hold," flagged recent oil-market developments as "concerning" and said the ECB would act if the inflation outlook deteriorated, while seeing only anecdotal evidence of second-round effects. Ülo Kaasik warned the ECB sees a risk of higher inflation from war escalation, and Joachim Nagel said the bank is well placed to respond to the energy-price shock (Investing). Money markets have moved to price in a Federal Reserve rate increase by September as higher oil lifts inflation risk, with the September meeting now around 72% priced (BBG) (CNBC), while swaps put the ECB near 90% for a September hike. In Japan, the Bank of Japan meets next week, with barely any move priced in for that decision (Reuters).
In currencies, the dollar was little changed overnight but headed for its biggest weekly gain in a month, the index at 101.41 and up 0.64% on the week (BBG). The yen was the focus, near its weakest in about four decades at 163.82 per dollar after its worst week since May (BBG), prompting Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama to say Japan is ready to take bold, decisive action on the currency as needed (Biztoc) (LS). The US Treasury's semi-annual report called out China over a lack of currency transparency and noted that yen weakness had persisted despite a narrowing US-Japan rate gap (BBG). Elsewhere, the Korean won firmed 0.62% against the dollar, and the Australian and New Zealand dollars each added around 0.10% (BBG).
Government bonds remained under pressure as the oil spike revived inflation fears, extending losses for investors who had bet the year's rout was over (BBG). Japan's 10-year future fell 0.30%, leaving the 10-year yield firmer at 2.811%, and Australian yields rose, the 10-year up about 0.4 basis points to 5.08% (BBG). The German Bund futures firmed 0.12% after German yields touched a 15-year high before the ECB decision (BBG), while US yields were little changed overnight after Thursday's climb, with the 10-year at 4.70% (BBG). In the United Kingdom, the Bank of England's coming decision on bond sales has been complicated by a surge in gilt yields (BBG).
Commodities set the tone even as crude paused. West Texas Intermediate slipped 0.86% overnight but remains up 12.1% on the week, after Houthi attacks on tankers in the Red Sea opened a new front in the Middle East conflict and a spate of strikes hit the Caspian Pipeline terminal that carries most of Kazakhstan's crude (Reuters), with OPEC+ nonetheless expected to raise output targets again from September (Reuters). Gold fell 0.59% on the firmer dollar and rising rate-hike bets (WSJ) (CNBC), even as China's bullion imports surged after an earlier price slump (BBG). Bitcoin edged up 0.25% (BBG).
On the data run, Japan's June inflation firmed, the headline rate rising to 1.7% from 1.5% and the core ex-fresh-food measure to 1.6% from 1.4%, both in line, though the core-core gauge eased to 1.7%, a touch below the 1.8% consensus, a mix that keeps the Bank of Japan on a gradual tightening path (WSJ) (JapanTimes).
UK consumer confidence jumped to minus 17 from minus 23, far above the minus 22 consensus and the strongest read in months, a lift dubbed the "Burnham bounce" (WSJ). Australia's flash composite PMI leapt to 52.6 from 50.4 and Japan's held in expansion at 53.1. Just after the capture, UK retail sales delivered a large upside surprise, rising 1.0% on the month against an expected 0.3% fall and 4.2% on the year, reinforcing the consumer rebound.
The corporate tape was led by the AI-spending read. Intel delivered a surprisingly strong revenue forecast, pointing to a data-centre turnaround, and JPMorgan lifted its price target sharply (WSJ) (LS); SAP's cloud revenue grew faster than expected (BBG); Volkswagen cut its full-year revenue outlook as a deepening sales slump in China intensified pressure on its turnaround (LS); Allianz agreed to buy HSBC's Singapore insurance unit as it expands in Asia (LS); and Advanced Micro Devices unveiled data-centre chips it says will outperform Nvidia's (BBG).
The day ahead centres on the July flash PMIs, which sweep through France, Germany, the euro area and the UK from 09:15 CET and the United States at 15:45 CET, alongside the Bank of England's Decision Maker Panel this morning (BBG). The Bank of Russia decides at 11:30 CET, the US tariff backdrop stays live with new duties of between 10% and 12.5% on many economies (Luxtimes) (Politico), and the ECB's Philip Lane speaks at 17:30 CET. Looking to next week, the Federal Reserve meets on 28-29 July and the Bank of Japan on 30-31 July, with mega-cap technology earnings the next major test of the AI trade.
Time Stamp: 24 July 2026, 07:51 CET
A global retreat from technology shares deepened in Asia, as doubts over the returns on hundreds of billions of dollars of artificial-intelligence spending collided with an oil surge that has revived fears of sticky inflation (BBG) (BBG). Japan's Nikkei led the region lower, falling 2.73%, with regional chip bellwethers among the hardest-hit after a Wall Street sell-off that saw the worst session in a month (BBG). The Magnificent Seven shed hundreds of billions in value overnight as AI sceptics trimmed exposure (BBG), with Alphabet and Tesla setting the tone on Thursday after raising capital-spending plans and reporting profit disappointments, respectively.
The selling was broad across Asia. Mainland China's CSI 300 fell 1.36%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 1.15%, and the MSCI Emerging Markets gauge slid 1.21%, while Australia's ASX 200 eased 0.90% (BBG). Europe looked steadier into the open, with DAX futures up 0.33% and the Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.26%, and US contracts pointed to a softer restart, the Nasdaq futures off 0.15% (BBG).
Central banks anchor the backdrop. The European Central Bank held on Thursday to gauge the Iran war's impact on inflation (BBG), with officials signalling that September is the live meeting (BBG). Governing Council member Martin Kocher called the next move "a hike or a hold," flagged recent oil-market developments as "concerning" and said the ECB would act if the inflation outlook deteriorated, while seeing only anecdotal evidence of second-round effects. Ülo Kaasik warned the ECB sees a risk of higher inflation from war escalation, and Joachim Nagel said the bank is well placed to respond to the energy-price shock (Investing). Money markets have moved to price in a Federal Reserve rate increase by September as higher oil lifts inflation risk, with the September meeting now around 72% priced (BBG) (CNBC), while swaps put the ECB near 90% for a September hike. In Japan, the Bank of Japan meets next week, with barely any move priced in for that decision (Reuters).
In currencies, the dollar was little changed overnight but headed for its biggest weekly gain in a month, the index at 101.41 and up 0.64% on the week (BBG). The yen was the focus, near its weakest in about four decades at 163.82 per dollar after its worst week since May (BBG), prompting Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama to say Japan is ready to take bold, decisive action on the currency as needed (Biztoc) (LS). The US Treasury's semi-annual report called out China over a lack of currency transparency and noted that yen weakness had persisted despite a narrowing US-Japan rate gap (BBG). Elsewhere, the Korean won firmed 0.62% against the dollar, and the Australian and New Zealand dollars each added around 0.10% (BBG).
Government bonds remained under pressure as the oil spike revived inflation fears, extending losses for investors who had bet the year's rout was over (BBG). Japan's 10-year future fell 0.30%, leaving the 10-year yield firmer at 2.811%, and Australian yields rose, the 10-year up about 0.4 basis points to 5.08% (BBG). The German Bund futures firmed 0.12% after German yields touched a 15-year high before the ECB decision (BBG), while US yields were little changed overnight after Thursday's climb, with the 10-year at 4.70% (BBG). In the United Kingdom, the Bank of England's coming decision on bond sales has been complicated by a surge in gilt yields (BBG).
Commodities set the tone even as crude paused. West Texas Intermediate slipped 0.86% overnight but remains up 12.1% on the week, after Houthi attacks on tankers in the Red Sea opened a new front in the Middle East conflict and a spate of strikes hit the Caspian Pipeline terminal that carries most of Kazakhstan's crude (Reuters), with OPEC+ nonetheless expected to raise output targets again from September (Reuters). Gold fell 0.59% on the firmer dollar and rising rate-hike bets (WSJ) (CNBC), even as China's bullion imports surged after an earlier price slump (BBG). Bitcoin edged up 0.25% (BBG).
On the data run, Japan's June inflation firmed, the headline rate rising to 1.7% from 1.5% and the core ex-fresh-food measure to 1.6% from 1.4%, both in line, though the core-core gauge eased to 1.7%, a touch below the 1.8% consensus, a mix that keeps the Bank of Japan on a gradual tightening path (WSJ) (JapanTimes).
UK consumer confidence jumped to minus 17 from minus 23, far above the minus 22 consensus and the strongest read in months, a lift dubbed the "Burnham bounce" (WSJ). Australia's flash composite PMI leapt to 52.6 from 50.4 and Japan's held in expansion at 53.1. Just after the capture, UK retail sales delivered a large upside surprise, rising 1.0% on the month against an expected 0.3% fall and 4.2% on the year, reinforcing the consumer rebound.
The corporate tape was led by the AI-spending read. Intel delivered a surprisingly strong revenue forecast, pointing to a data-centre turnaround, and JPMorgan lifted its price target sharply (WSJ) (LS); SAP's cloud revenue grew faster than expected (BBG); Volkswagen cut its full-year revenue outlook as a deepening sales slump in China intensified pressure on its turnaround (LS); Allianz agreed to buy HSBC's Singapore insurance unit as it expands in Asia (LS); and Advanced Micro Devices unveiled data-centre chips it says will outperform Nvidia's (BBG).
The day ahead centres on the July flash PMIs, which sweep through France, Germany, the euro area and the UK from 09:15 CET and the United States at 15:45 CET, alongside the Bank of England's Decision Maker Panel this morning (BBG). The Bank of Russia decides at 11:30 CET, the US tariff backdrop stays live with new duties of between 10% and 12.5% on many economies (Luxtimes) (Politico), and the ECB's Philip Lane speaks at 17:30 CET. Looking to next week, the Federal Reserve meets on 28-29 July and the Bank of Japan on 30-31 July, with mega-cap technology earnings the next major test of the AI trade.
Time Stamp: 24 July 2026, 07:51 CET
A global retreat from technology shares deepened in Asia, as doubts over the returns on hundreds of billions of dollars of artificial-intelligence spending collided with an oil surge that has revived fears of sticky inflation (BBG) (BBG). Japan's Nikkei led the region lower, falling 2.73%, with regional chip bellwethers among the hardest-hit after a Wall Street sell-off that saw the worst session in a month (BBG). The Magnificent Seven shed hundreds of billions in value overnight as AI sceptics trimmed exposure (BBG), with Alphabet and Tesla setting the tone on Thursday after raising capital-spending plans and reporting profit disappointments, respectively.
The selling was broad across Asia. Mainland China's CSI 300 fell 1.36%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 1.15%, and the MSCI Emerging Markets gauge slid 1.21%, while Australia's ASX 200 eased 0.90% (BBG). Europe looked steadier into the open, with DAX futures up 0.33% and the Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.26%, and US contracts pointed to a softer restart, the Nasdaq futures off 0.15% (BBG).
Central banks anchor the backdrop. The European Central Bank held on Thursday to gauge the Iran war's impact on inflation (BBG), with officials signalling that September is the live meeting (BBG). Governing Council member Martin Kocher called the next move "a hike or a hold," flagged recent oil-market developments as "concerning" and said the ECB would act if the inflation outlook deteriorated, while seeing only anecdotal evidence of second-round effects. Ülo Kaasik warned the ECB sees a risk of higher inflation from war escalation, and Joachim Nagel said the bank is well placed to respond to the energy-price shock (Investing). Money markets have moved to price in a Federal Reserve rate increase by September as higher oil lifts inflation risk, with the September meeting now around 72% priced (BBG) (CNBC), while swaps put the ECB near 90% for a September hike. In Japan, the Bank of Japan meets next week, with barely any move priced in for that decision (Reuters).
In currencies, the dollar was little changed overnight but headed for its biggest weekly gain in a month, the index at 101.41 and up 0.64% on the week (BBG). The yen was the focus, near its weakest in about four decades at 163.82 per dollar after its worst week since May (BBG), prompting Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama to say Japan is ready to take bold, decisive action on the currency as needed (Biztoc) (LS). The US Treasury's semi-annual report called out China over a lack of currency transparency and noted that yen weakness had persisted despite a narrowing US-Japan rate gap (BBG). Elsewhere, the Korean won firmed 0.62% against the dollar, and the Australian and New Zealand dollars each added around 0.10% (BBG).
Government bonds remained under pressure as the oil spike revived inflation fears, extending losses for investors who had bet the year's rout was over (BBG). Japan's 10-year future fell 0.30%, leaving the 10-year yield firmer at 2.811%, and Australian yields rose, the 10-year up about 0.4 basis points to 5.08% (BBG). The German Bund futures firmed 0.12% after German yields touched a 15-year high before the ECB decision (BBG), while US yields were little changed overnight after Thursday's climb, with the 10-year at 4.70% (BBG). In the United Kingdom, the Bank of England's coming decision on bond sales has been complicated by a surge in gilt yields (BBG).
Commodities set the tone even as crude paused. West Texas Intermediate slipped 0.86% overnight but remains up 12.1% on the week, after Houthi attacks on tankers in the Red Sea opened a new front in the Middle East conflict and a spate of strikes hit the Caspian Pipeline terminal that carries most of Kazakhstan's crude (Reuters), with OPEC+ nonetheless expected to raise output targets again from September (Reuters). Gold fell 0.59% on the firmer dollar and rising rate-hike bets (WSJ) (CNBC), even as China's bullion imports surged after an earlier price slump (BBG). Bitcoin edged up 0.25% (BBG).
On the data run, Japan's June inflation firmed, the headline rate rising to 1.7% from 1.5% and the core ex-fresh-food measure to 1.6% from 1.4%, both in line, though the core-core gauge eased to 1.7%, a touch below the 1.8% consensus, a mix that keeps the Bank of Japan on a gradual tightening path (WSJ) (JapanTimes).
UK consumer confidence jumped to minus 17 from minus 23, far above the minus 22 consensus and the strongest read in months, a lift dubbed the "Burnham bounce" (WSJ). Australia's flash composite PMI leapt to 52.6 from 50.4 and Japan's held in expansion at 53.1. Just after the capture, UK retail sales delivered a large upside surprise, rising 1.0% on the month against an expected 0.3% fall and 4.2% on the year, reinforcing the consumer rebound.
The corporate tape was led by the AI-spending read. Intel delivered a surprisingly strong revenue forecast, pointing to a data-centre turnaround, and JPMorgan lifted its price target sharply (WSJ) (LS); SAP's cloud revenue grew faster than expected (BBG); Volkswagen cut its full-year revenue outlook as a deepening sales slump in China intensified pressure on its turnaround (LS); Allianz agreed to buy HSBC's Singapore insurance unit as it expands in Asia (LS); and Advanced Micro Devices unveiled data-centre chips it says will outperform Nvidia's (BBG).
The day ahead centres on the July flash PMIs, which sweep through France, Germany, the euro area and the UK from 09:15 CET and the United States at 15:45 CET, alongside the Bank of England's Decision Maker Panel this morning (BBG). The Bank of Russia decides at 11:30 CET, the US tariff backdrop stays live with new duties of between 10% and 12.5% on many economies (Luxtimes) (Politico), and the ECB's Philip Lane speaks at 17:30 CET. Looking to next week, the Federal Reserve meets on 28-29 July and the Bank of Japan on 30-31 July, with mega-cap technology earnings the next major test of the AI trade.
Time Stamp: 24 July 2026, 07:51 CET