Tomorrow's Macro Roadmap: Japan Inflation Heats Up Before the BoJ as Flash PMIs Test the Cycle
Macro: The Big Picture
The overnight session belongs to Japan. National CPI for June prints at 01:30 CET, with the core gauge, which excludes fresh food, expected to accelerate to 1.6 per cent from 1.4 per cent on the calendar consensus, and the flash PMIs follow at 02:30 CET from an elevated starting point.
From 09:15 CET, the July flash PMIs sweep through France, Germany, the euro area, the UK and, at 15:45 CET, the United States. June's euro-area composite sat exactly at 50, so small moves carry outsized signalling weight for the third quarter. The euro area digests Thursday's ECB decision with a heavy day-after slate at 10:00 CET: the Survey of Professional Forecasters, the June Consumer Expectations Survey and the corporate-contacts pre-release of the Economic Bulletin, before Chief Economist Philip Lane appears on stage in Donegal at 17:30 CET.
The UK stacks retail sales, GfK consumer confidence, the flash PMIs, the Decision Maker Panel and the Bank of England Agents' summary into one morning, the fullest single-day read on the UK economy this month.
Washington is quiet on the policy side; the Fed's communications blackout runs through 30 July ahead of the 28-29 July FOMC, leaving the flash PMIs and June new home sales as the US session's data anchors.
Trade policy is a live session risk. The temporary 10 per cent US global import tariff is set to expire on Friday unless Congress extends it, an event several desks flag as a binary headline generator for the afternoon.
Key Earnings: American Express, NextEra Energy, Verizon, HCA Healthcare, SLB and Volkswagen report on Friday, closing a week dominated by Alphabet, Tesla and Intel results.
Also on the radar, the Bank of Russia decides at 11:30 CET, with the market split between a hold and a further cut, and China's July Politburo meeting is expected before month-end to set the second-half policy stance.