RBA Decision, Swiss CPI, JOLTS, NZ Jobs & Midterms: GGMA Day Ahead
Tuesday, 3 November 2026 — The RBA is expected to raise rates as Americans vote in the midterms. US job openings and New Zealand's jobs will be published.
Our themes:
The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to lift its cash rate to 4.85% at 04:30 CET, and money markets price in an 82% chance. The new forecasts matter more than the move, since one house expects the bank to raise its core inflation path and its unemployment peak to 4.9%.
Americans vote in the midterm elections, and the results arrive overnight. Before that, job openings at 16:00 CET are expected to rise to 7.16 million, testing the labour demand behind the 76% chance of a December Fed rate hike.
New Zealand's jobs report closes the day, with unemployment expected to ease to 5.5% from 5.6%. To be sure, the RBNZ held last week on a 4-3 vote, and one of its policymakers says he is "50-50" on December.
Chart of the day: RBA expected to lift its cash rate to 4.85%
In brief
08:30 CET · SZ CPI YoY (Oct): consensus 1.2%, previous 1.0%
08:30 CET · SZ CPI MoM (Oct): consensus 0.0%, previous 0.0%
16:00 CET · US JOLTS Job Openings (Sep): consensus 7155k, previous 7079k
22:45 CET · NZ Unemployment Rate (3Q): consensus 5.5%, previous 5.6%
22:45 CET · NZ Employment Change QoQ (3Q): consensus 0.4%, previous 0.5%
Scenarios
Australia: RBA decision and Statement on Monetary Policy (04:30 CET, High impact): A rise to 4.85% is 82% priced. Higher inflation forecasts or a hint of a December hike (19% priced) would lift Australian yields. A hold would be a shock.
Switzerland: CPI (Oct) (08:30 CET, Medium impact): 1.2% expected. A reading of 1.4% could test the 9% probability of an SNB hike in December.
US: JOLTS, durable goods and factory orders (Sep) (16:00 CET, Medium impact): 7.16 million openings expected. A reading near 7.36 million supports December Fed pricing (76%). A drop towards 7.0 million weighs on it.
US: midterm elections (Tue 3 Nov, results overnight into Wed CET, High impact): All 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats (incl. specials in Ohio and Florida) and 36 governorships are on the ballot. Polls and forecasts strongly favour a Democratic House; the Senate leans Democratic but is far less certain. A Democratic House means divided government from January and closes the reconciliation route for further GOP fiscal packages. Senate control mainly decides confirmations (simple majority), while most legislation still needs 60 Senate votes.
New Zealand: labour market (3Q) (22:45 CET, High impact): 5.5% unemployment expected. A 5.4% reading with firmer wages supports a December RBNZ hike (78%). A 5.7% reading argues for waiting.
ECB and Bank of Canada speakers (08:00-19:15 CET, Low impact): Nagel and Sleijpen speak in the evening with a December ECB rise 87% priced. Macklem testifies after last week's rise.
Central bank speakers
Scheduled speakers: Dimitar Radev (Bulgarian National Bank, 08:00 CET); Martin Kocher (Oesterreichische Nationalbank, 09:00 CET); Primož Dolenc (Banka Slovenije, 09:00 CET); José Luis Escrivá (Banco de España, 11:00 CET); Emmanuel Moulin (Banque de France, 11:00 CET); Tiff Macklem (Bank of Canada, 17:00 CET); Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank, 19:00 CET); Olaf Sleijpen (De Nederlandsche Bank, 19:15 CET).
The full preview
Data release previews
Switzerland's consumer price index (CPI) for October is expected to increase (08:30 CET).
Economists expect annual CPI inflation to rise to 1.2% from 1.0%, with forecasts ranging from 1.0% to 1.4%, and prices flat for the month.
Economists see core inflation steady at 0.5%. The EU-harmonised CPI rose 1.2% from a year earlier in September and fell 0.1% on the month. One house expects petroleum product prices to be 39% higher than a year earlier, while other goods prices might rise 0.4%.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) held its policy rate at 0% on 24 September. It forecast average inflation of 0.7% for 2026 and said inflation would rise somewhat in the fourth quarter before easing in 2027.
Here is the current SNB market pricing as of 02-11-2026, 15:51 CET:
10 Dec: implied -0.03%, +2 bp priced, 9% probability of a hike
18 Mar: implied 0.10%, +15 bp priced, 51% probability of a hike
24 Jun: implied 0.25%, +30 bp priced, 62% probability of a hike
23 Sep: implied 0.39%, +44 bp priced, 53% probability of a hike
Changes are measured from the policy rate of 0.00%.
Source: Swiss National Bank, Monetary policy assessment of 24 September 2026, conditional inflation forecast table, https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924
Editor's Note: Money markets price in a 9% chance of an SNB rise in December. A reading at the top of forecasts, 1.4%, could test that. Core inflation steady at 0.5% would keep the rise looking like an energy story.
US job openings for September come out at 16:00 CET.
Economists expect 7.16 million, up from 7.08 million in August, with forecasts from 7.00 million to 7.36 million. Bloomberg survey: median 7155k, range 7000k to 7360k (as of 02-11-2026).
Quits are expected to edge up to 3.10 million from 3.07 million and layoffs to 1.66 million from 1.64 million.
One house expects vacancies per unemployed worker to edge down to 1.00 from 1.01, as the number of unemployed rose. Another economist warns that other job-posting data suggest the survey overstates demand for workers.
We will closely watch the quits rate as this correlates well with wages.
The Federal Reserve held its rate range at 3.75% to 4% on 28 October, with two officials voting for a rise instead.
Here is the current Fed market pricing as of 02-11-2026, 15:51 CET:
9 Dec: implied 4.07%, +19 bp priced, 76% probability of a hike
27 Jan: implied 4.14%, +26 bp priced, 29% probability of a hike
17 Mar: implied 4.29%, +40 bp priced, 57% probability of a hike
28 Apr: implied 4.35%, +47 bp priced, 25% probability of a hike
Changes are measured from today's effective rate of 3.88%. The target range is 3.75-4.00%.
Editor's Note: If the quits rate rises from here, the Fed won't miss it, in our view.
New Zealand's third-quarter labour market figures come out at 22:45 CET.
Economists expect the unemployment rate to ease to 5.5% from 5.6%, with forecasts from 5.4% to 5.7%.
Employment is expected to grow 0.4% in the quarter, matching the revised second-quarter figure. Private-sector wages excluding overtime are expected to rise 0.5% q/q, down from 0.7%.
The RBNZ's own forecast for the quarter is 5.5%, according to one house, and another expects no change at 5.6%.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) held its cash rate at 2.75% last week in a 4-3 vote. Committee member Carl Hansen said in an interview reported on Monday that he was "50-50" on a rise in December.
Here is the current RBNZ market pricing as of 02-11-2026, 15:51 CET:
9 Dec: implied 2.94%, +19 bp priced, 78% probability of a hike
10 Feb: implied 3.10%, +35 bp priced, 62% probability of a hike
17 Mar: implied 3.25%, +50 bp priced, 60% probability of a hike
5 May: implied 3.41%, +66 bp priced, 66% probability of a hike
Changes are measured from today's effective rate of 2.75%. The policy rate is 2.75%.
Editor's Note: Money markets give a December RBNZ move a 78% probability. Unemployment at 5.4% with firmer wages would support that, while 5.7% would strengthen the case for waiting.
Central banks
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announces its decision at 04:30 CET, with the November Statement on Monetary Policy.
Economists expect a 25-basis-point rise to 4.85%, and Governor Michele Bullock speaks at 05:30 CET.
It would be the fifth rise this year and take the cash rate to its highest since 2008, according to one house. Money markets price in an 82% chance of the move.
The RBA's preferred core gauge, the trimmed mean, rose 1.0% in the three months to September and 3.7% from a year earlier. That is above the bank's August forecast of 3.3% by December. The Melbourne Institute's gauge rose 0.5% in October, taking its annual rate to 4.9%.
One house expects the new forecasts to lift core inflation by about 0.3 percentage points and revise the unemployment rate higher by 0.2 percentage points, peaking at 4.9%, based on a cash-rate path near 5.0%. Several houses see a split vote as possible.
Bullock told a Senate committee on 28 October that "the labour market seems a little tighter than we had previously judged", even though unemployment had risen more than the bank expected.
Arguing against a rate hike would be that house prices in the major cities fell 1.4% in October, the seventh monthly drop, and the rise in the unemployment rate to 4.7%.
Here is the current RBA market pricing as of 02-11-2026, 15:51 CET:
3 Nov: implied 4.80%, +20 bp priced, 82% probability of a hike
8 Dec: implied 4.85%, +25 bp priced, 19% probability of a hike
9 Feb: implied 4.93%, +34 bp priced, 33% probability of a hike
23 Mar: implied 4.94%, +34 bp priced, 4% probability of a hike
Changes are measured from today's effective rate of 4.60%. The policy rate is 4.60%.
Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, Statement on Monetary Policy, August 2026, Table 3.1: Detailed Forecast Table, https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2026/aug/outlook.html
Editor's Note: With a rise largely priced, the new forecasts and Bullock's words matter more than the move. Money markets see only a 19% chance of another rise in December, so a hint of one would probably lift Australian yields and the currency.
Also on the calendar
04:30 CET · Australia · RBA-Statement on Monetary Policy
15:30 CET · United States · Purdue Agriculture Sentiment (previous 123)
16:00 CET · United States · JOLTS Quits Level (consensus 3096k, previous 3066k)
16:00 CET · United States · JOLTS Quits Rate (previous 1.9%)
16:00 CET · United States · JOLTS Layoffs Level (consensus 1660k, previous 1641k)
16:00 CET · United States · JOLTS Layoffs Rate (previous 1.0%)
16:00 CET · United States · Factory Orders (consensus 1.2%, previous 0.1%)
16:00 CET · United States · Factory Orders Ex Trans (consensus 0.5%, previous 0.3%)
16:00 CET · United States · Durable Goods Orders (consensus 1.8%, previous 1.8%)
16:00 CET · United States · Durables Ex Transportation (consensus 0.5%, previous 0.5%)
16:00 CET · United States · Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (consensus 0.5%, previous 0.5%)
16:00 CET · United States · Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (previous 1.2%)
22:45 CET · New Zealand · Participation Rate (consensus 70.7%, previous 70.7%)
22:45 CET · New Zealand · Pvt Wages Ex Overtime QoQ (consensus 0.5%, previous 0.7%)
22:45 CET · New Zealand · Pvt Wages Inc Overtime QoQ (consensus 0.5%, previous 0.7%)
22:45 CET · New Zealand · Average Hourly Earnings QoQ (previous 1.4%)
23:00 CET · Australia · S&P Global Australia PMI Composite (previous 47.7)
23:00 CET · Australia · S&P Global Australia PMI Services (previous 47.8)
Central bank speech previews
Dimitar Radev (Neutral, Bulgarian National Bank, 08:00 CET)
Bulgarian National Bank Governor Dimitar Radev opens the speaker list at the OMFIF Sofia Forum at 08:00 CET, one of three ECB Governing Council members listed as keynote speakers. The forum's theme is enlargement, transformation and digitalisation. In August he wrote that Bulgaria's move to the euro "was successful" but was "only a start". The ECB left its deposit rate at 2.50% on 29 October, and money markets price in an 87% chance of a rise in December.
Martin Kocher (Hawk, Oesterreichische Nationalbank, 09:00 CET)
Austrian National Bank Governor Martin Kocher speaks at the OMFIF Sofia Forum at 09:00 CET, alongside Slovenia's Primož Dolenc. At a Vienna conference on 6 October he said that "the risk of higher inflation, and potentially lower growth, has increased once more" as energy prices rose again. On 22 October, at a Vienna trade fair, he urged Austria to keep consolidating its budget as bond yields rise and gave no guidance on rates.
Primož Dolenc (Neutral, Banka Slovenije, 09:00 CET)
Bank of Slovenia Governor Primož Dolenc joins Kocher at the OMFIF Sofia Forum at 09:00 CET. After the ECB's rise in June, he said in an interview that "we just need to continue on the main path". He added that the latest data showed "inflation will be higher and economic growth will be lower". The ECB has held since, most recently on 29 October.
José Luis Escrivá (Neutral, Banco de España, 11:00 CET)
Bank of Spain Governor José Luis Escrivá speaks at Santander's International Banking Conference in Madrid at 11:00 CET. On 29 September he said "we are still not in a restrictive territory" and that he would start to worry about "the global upward trajectory of long-term rates", as reported by Investing.com.
Emmanuel Moulin (Lean dove, Banque de France, 11:00 CET)
Bank of France Governor Emmanuel Moulin speaks at the Journées de l'économie (JECO) conference in Lyon at 11:00 CET and again at 15:00 CET. On 16 October he told AFP that ECB intervention in the French bond market was not justified and that the problem had to be settled by budget consolidation. Fitch moved its outlook on France to negative last week.
Tiff Macklem (Neutral, Bank of Canada, 17:00 CET)
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers appear before the House of Commons finance committee in Ottawa from 17:00 CET. Their opening statement is published at the start. The bank raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% on 28 October, its first rise since July 2023, and Macklem said further increases may be needed. Money markets price in a 51% chance of another rise in December.
Joachim Nagel (Hawk, Deutsche Bundesbank, 19:00 CET)
Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel speaks at the Bundesbank's Hauptstadtempfang in Berlin at 19:00 CET, on the theme "Mut zu mehr Europa". The Bundesbank says the speech will be published. On 16 October, in Bangkok, he said that "if the situation remains as it is, we don't rule out the possibility that we may have to take further action".
Olaf Sleijpen (Hawk, De Nederlandsche Bank, 19:15 CET)
Dutch central bank President Olaf Sleijpen speaks in The Hague at 19:15 CET. His last remarks on policy came in a 24 July interview with Econostream, when he said: "No single variable determines the decision." On 1 October, in Frankfurt, he spoke on the impact of climate change on monetary policy transmission.
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