ISM, Fed and ECB Speakers: Day Ahead
Monday, 2 November 2026 — Fed and ECB speakers follow last week's holds. Australia's inflation gauge lands overnight, the ISM factory index at 16:00 CET.
Our themes:
Price pressure in US factories is the thread to follow. The ISM index is expected to hold at 54.5, but its prices-paid component jumped to 77.9 in September, and a second high reading would support December Fed pricing, at 73%, after two officials voted for a rise last week.
Australia's inflation gauge is the last reading before Tuesday's RBA decision, and money markets already price an 80% chance of a rise to 4.85%. Core inflation reached 3.7% in the third quarter, above the RBA's August forecast of 3.3% for December.
Six central bankers speak after last week's Fed and ECB decisions to hold. ECB Vice-President Vujčić is in Dublin at 10:30 CET, with December's rise priced at 82%, and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee moderates a discussion at 17:15 CET.
Chart of the day: US factory activity expected to hold above 54. Watch out for prices paid.
In brief
01:00 CET · AU Melbourne Institute Inflation MoM (Oct): previous 0.3%
01:00 CET · AU Melbourne Institute Inflation YoY (Oct): previous 4.8%
16:00 CET · US ISM Manufacturing (Oct): consensus 54.5, previous 54.5
Scenarios
Australia: Melbourne Institute inflation gauge (Oct) (01:00 CET, Low impact): It rose 0.3% m/m in September, and economists have published no forecast. A firmer reading supports Tuesday's RBA rise (80% priced) and maybe talk of another hike.
US: ISM manufacturing (Oct) (16:00 CET, Medium impact): 54.5 expected, prices paid 77.1. Prices paid near 78 or higher support December Fed pricing (73%). A fall towards 75 eases it.
ECB and Fed speakers (10:30-17:15 CET, Medium impact): Vujčić's words on a December ECB hike, priced at 82%, are worth watching, then Goolsbee's on the Fed's December meeting (73%).
Central bank speakers
Scheduled speakers: Boris Vujčić (European Central Bank, 10:30 CET); Gabriel Makhlouf (Central Bank of Ireland, 10:15 CET); José Luis Escrivá (Banco de España, 16:00 CET); Emmanuel Moulin (Banque de France, 16:00 CET); Dimitar Radev (Bulgarian National Bank, 17:00 CET); Austan Goolsbee (Federal Reserve, 17:15 CET).
The full preview
Data release previews
The Melbourne Institute's inflation gauge for October comes out at 01:00 CET.
Economists publish no forecast for it. In September it rose 0.3% m/m and 4.8% y/y.
Official figures on 28 October showed consumer prices up 0.8% in September and 4.3% from a year earlier, driven by a 9.4% jump in fuel prices and holiday travel. The trimmed mean, the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) preferred core measure, rose 1.0% in the third quarter and 3.7% y/y. That is above the RBA's August forecasts, which had the trimmed mean at 3.3% by December.
Several houses expect the RBA to raise its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.85% on Tuesday at 03:30 CET, its fifth rise this year, with new forecasts in the November Statement on Monetary Policy. One house notes that some board members may dissent.
RBA market pricing as of 01-11-2026, 12:50 CET:
3 Nov: implied 4.80%, +20 bp priced, 80% probability of a hike
8 Dec: implied 4.92%, +32 bp priced, 48% probability of a hike
9 Feb: implied 4.90%, +30 bp priced, 9% probability of a cut
23 Mar: implied 4.92%, +33 bp priced, 12% probability of a hike
Changes are measured from today's effective rate of 4.60%. The policy rate is 4.60%.
Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, Statement on Monetary Policy, August 2026, Table 3.1: Detailed Forecast Table, https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2026/aug/outlook.html
Editor's Note: Money markets already price in an 80% chance of a rise on Tuesday, so a monthly rise above September's 0.3% would mainly firm the case for one more after it, while a flat reading would probably not stop Tuesday's move.
The ISM manufacturing index for October comes out at 16:00 CET.
Economists expect it to hold at 54.5, with forecasts from 52.4 to 55.5.
The prices-paid index is expected to be 77.1 after jumping to 77.9 in September from 71.1 in August. New orders are forecast to be at 54.9, down from 55.3, and employment at 52.0, down from 52.7.
One house's composite of five regional Fed factory surveys fell to 53.9 in October from 55.6, and another notes weaker new orders in four of the five districts, though all stayed above 50 on an ISM-adjusted basis.
In the October flash S&P Global survey, input prices rose to 74.0 from 65.6 and output prices to 66.1, the highest since the summer of 2022, according to one house.
The Fed held its rate range at 3.75% to 4% on 28 October, with two officials dissenting in favour of a rise.
Bloomberg survey: median 54.5, range 52.4 to 55.5 (as of 31-10-2026).
Fed market pricing as of 01-11-2026, 12:50 CET:
9 Dec: implied 4.06%, +18 bp priced, 73% probability of a hike
27 Jan: implied 4.13%, +25 bp priced, 28% probability of a hike
17 Mar: implied 4.27%, +39 bp priced, 55% probability of a hike
28 Apr: implied 4.34%, +46 bp priced, 27% probability of a hike
Changes are measured from today's effective rate of 3.88%. The target range is 3.75-4.00%.
Editor's Note: Prices paid matter more than the headline. Another reading near 78 would back the two officials who wanted a rise and the 73% chance of a December move that money markets price. A drop towards the low end of forecasts, 75, would ease it.
Also on the calendar
01:30 CET · Japan · S&P Global Japan PMI Mfg (previous 53.3)
01:30 CET · Australia · Building Approvals MoM (consensus 2.0%, previous -6.1%)
01:30 CET · Australia · Private Sector Houses MoM (previous 3.7%)
02:45 CET · China · RatingDog China PMI Mfg (consensus 52, previous 52.1)
06:30 CET · Sweden · SEB Swedish Housing-Price Indicator
08:00 CET · Germany · Retail Sales MoM (consensus 0.4%, previous 1.3%)
08:00 CET · Germany · Retail Sales SA YoY (consensus -0.2%, previous -0.4%)
08:30 CET · Switzerland · Retail Sales Real YoY (previous 3.2%)
08:30 CET · Sweden · Swedbank/Silf PMI Manufacturing (previous 58.1)
09:30 CET · Switzerland · PMI Manufacturing (consensus 55.4, previous 55.3)
09:30 CET · Switzerland · PMI Services (previous 59.8)
09:55 CET · Germany · S&P Global/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI (consensus 54.2, previous 54.2)
10:00 CET · Switzerland · Domestic Sight Deposits CHF (previous 434.7b)
10:00 CET · Switzerland · Total Sight Deposits CHF (previous 455.8b)
10:00 CET · Euro Area · S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (consensus 52.4, previous 52.4)
10:30 CET · United Kingdom · S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI (consensus 52.8, previous 52.8)
14:00 CET · Canada · Bloomberg Nanos Confidence (previous 51.2)
15:30 CET · Canada · S&P Global Canada Manufacturing PMI (previous 51.5)
15:45 CET · United States · S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (consensus 56, previous 56)
16:00 CET · United States · ISM Prices Paid (consensus 77.1, previous 77.9)
16:00 CET · United States · ISM New Orders (consensus 54.9, previous 55.3)
16:00 CET · United States · ISM Employment (consensus 52, previous 52.7)
16:00 CET · United States · Construction Spending MoM (consensus 0.4%, previous 0.9%)
21:00 CET · United States · USDA Soybean Crush (previous 6289327)
21:00 CET · United States · USDA Soybean Crush Crude (previous 2447917k)
21:00 CET · United States · USDA Soybean Crush Onsite (previous 769244k)
21:00 CET · United States · Corn for Ethanol (previous 477732k)
21:00 CET · United States · DDGS Production (previous 1845k)
22:00 CET · United States · Condition - Winter Wheat
22:45 CET · New Zealand · Building Permits MoM (previous 5.6%)
Central bank speech previews
Boris Vujčić (Lean hawk, European Central Bank, 10:30 CET)
ECB Vice-President Boris Vujčić gives the keynote at the Central Bank of Ireland's Financial System Conference in Dublin at 10:30 CET and joins Governor Gabriel Makhlouf and Deputy Governor Vasileios Madouros in a fireside discussion at 10:45 CET, according to the conference agenda. The ECB held its deposit rate at 2.50% on 29 October. In a Reuters interview on 18 September, Vujčić said that "the pricing of the interest rate path is being driven mainly by rising energy prices" and that the ECB would "see what happens in the coming months and adjust policy accordingly". His speech on 2 October dealt with bank competitiveness. Money markets price an 82% chance of a rise in December.
Gabriel Makhlouf (Neutral, Central Bank of Ireland, 10:15 CET)
Central Bank of Ireland Governor Gabriel Makhlouf opens the conference at 10:15 CET and joins Vujčić's fireside discussion at 10:45 CET. His recent speeches, on 1 and 9 October, dealt with Europe's capital markets and bank governance, not interest rates.
José Luis Escrivá (Neutral, Banco de España, 16:00 CET)
Banco de España Governor José Luis Escrivá speaks with Banque de France Governor Emmanuel Moulin at the World in Progress forum in Barcelona at 16:00 CET. On 29 September, Escrivá said, as reported by Investing.com, "We are still not in a restrictive territory" and that he would start to worry about "the global upward trajectory of long-term rates".
Emmanuel Moulin (Lean dove, Banque de France, 16:00 CET)
Banque de France Governor Emmanuel Moulin speaks with Escrivá in Barcelona at 16:00 CET. On 24 July he told BFM Business that the ECB's June rate rise was "fully justified" ("se justifiait pleinement"). On 16 October, he told AFP that an ECB intervention in French bond markets was not justified and that the problem must be settled by budget consolidation.
Dimitar Radev (Neutral, Bulgarian National Bank, 17:00 CET)
Bulgarian National Bank Governor Dimitar Radev speaks in Sofia at 17:00 CET, the day before the OMFIF Sofia Forum. In an August article on Bulgaria's first months in the euro area, he wrote that the transition "was successful" but was "only a start".
Austan Goolsbee (Hawk, Federal Reserve, 17:15 CET)
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee moderates a question-and-answer session with Andréa Maechler of the Bank for International Settlements at the Chicago Fed's Financial Markets Group Fall Conference at 17:15 CET. There is no prepared speech. He does not vote on policy this year. In an interview with Semafor on 12 October he said: "I'm getting increasingly nervous that that's just straight, old-fashioned overheating demand" and "If inflation remains persistent, then I think it's clear what the Fed has to do." The Fed held on 28 October with two votes for a rise, and money markets price a 73% chance of a December rise.
Related: Friday's Briefing: Tech Selloff Deepens as BoJ Says Its Inflation Target Is Met · Our previous preview: Bank of Japan Decision With Tokyo Inflation and German CPI (29 Oct) · Previously on the Fed: Fed Holds With Two Dissents for a Hike as Alphabet… (29 Oct)