Tomorrow’s Macro Roadmap: Japan PPI / German Final CPI / ECB & Fed speak / US CPI report
US CPI — February (13:30 CET)
Consensus expects headline CPI +0.3% m/m (2.4% y/y) and core +0.2% m/m (2.5% y/y). However, some investment banks see core coming in firmer. Some analysts expect a softer core led by services price resets unwinding and modest car rental/airfare increases, further motor vehicle insurance declines. Others argue that wholesalers and retailers have regained pricing power to pass on higher costs to consumers, especially since October with supercore CPI continuing to accelerate.
ISM survey and PMI pricing pressures suggest additional tariff cost pass-through remains in the pipeline.
ECB & Fed speak
Three central bank speakers are scheduled for Wednesday. ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos speaks at 09:30 CET in a fireside chat at the 32nd Encuentro del Sector Financiero in Madrid (in Spanish, no text published). He views the current ECB rate level as “appropriate” and maintains a data-dependent, open-minded approach. He sees headline inflation (1.7%) converging toward 2% and considers the euro area economy more resilient than projected. However, he has flagged three key risks: geopolitical tensions (Iran/Middle East), Chinese export competition and trade diversion, and US tariff policy — noting tariffs are inflationary short-term but potentially deflationary medium-term. On 5 March, he warned that if the Iran conflict proves prolonged, “there is a risk that inflation expectations will change.”
ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel delivers a guest lecture at 16:10 CET at the Frankfurt School of Finance and Management (no text published). This is the last day for ECB communication before the March 19 quiet period begins on Thursday. Schnabel stated that ECB monetary policy “remains in a good place” with inflation projected at target and expectations anchored, but warned the ECB “cannot be complacent” given upside inflation risks from the Iran war and energy price spikes. She flagged persistent labour market tightness — driven by ageing, moderating immigration, and skill mismatches — as a structural source of price pressure. She cautioned against over-reliance on speculative AI productivity gains that have not yet materialized in data.
Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speaks at 13:30 CET at the ABA Washington Summit on supervision and regulation — notably not monetary policy, and with the Fed blackout already in effect.