Tomorrow's Macro Roadmap: Swiss Sight Deposits / Norway Core CPI / India CPI / Fed's Waller / ECB's Schnabel / BOE's Pill
Overview — the day at a glance
A quiet data Monday that is really a warm-up act, with the week's main event — US CPI — landing on Tuesday and a run of central-bank speakers filling the evening. The Swiss National Bank's weekly sight deposits will be released at 10:00 CET, watched as the market's proxy for franc intervention after three straight weekly increases. India's June CPI at 12:30 CET is the one tier-1 data print, with consensus looking for headline inflation to firm to 4.3% year on year from 3.93%. Norway's 08:00 CET slot carries the expected completion of June's inflation figures, after technical problems at Statistics Norway left Friday's publication without the core numbers — the headline already fell to 2.7%, half a point below the pre-release consensus.
The evening belongs to central bankers: the Fed's Waller gives an economic-outlook speech the day before US CPI, the ECB's Schnabel and the BoE's Pill both appear, and the Fed's Bowman speaks on financial regulation, and late in the US evening ECB President Lagarde meets Fed Chair Kevin Warsh in Washington — listed on market calendars as a speech, but in fact a private bilateral with no public remarks. Everything else, euro-area and French bill auctions, Germany's current account and the Buba monthly report, an OPEC meeting and the US budget statement, are second-tier events.
Data Preview
In Switzerland, the SNB will release its update on sight deposits for last week at 10:00 CET. Total sight deposits at the SNB have risen for three consecutive weeks, by roughly CHF 10.7bn in all, to CHF 479.2bn in the week ending 3 July — the highest level since April 2024. They are far from a perfect proxy for SNB interventions in foreign exchange markets and are influenced by other factors, yet they remain worth monitoring. In its latest statement, the central bank said that
"in view of international developments, we are increasingly prepared to intervene in the foreign exchange market. We stand ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market to curb a rapid and excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc, which would jeopardise price stability."
Statistics Norway published only selected key figures of the June CPI on Friday, citing technical operational issues: headline inflation fell to 2.7% year on year from 3.1% in May, with prices down 0.2% on the month. The core (CPI-ATE) figures were withheld. Monday's 08:00 CET slot is expected to deliver the missing core numbers, where consensus — set before Friday's partial publication — stands at 0.5% month on month and 3.3% year on year. The same slot also carries May manufacturing production (consensus a 0.4% monthly rise after a 0.9% fall), June producer prices and the trade balance. Norges Bank next meets on 13 August with the deposit rate at 4.25% after May's increase.
India's consumer price index for June is released at 12:30 CET. Consensus looks for headline inflation to rise to 4.3% year on year, from 3.93% in May, with the month-on-month reading following a 0.75% prior. Two mechanisms compete to explain the pickup: pass-through of the recent increase in fuel and regulated prices to the broader basket, and firmer food inflation from higher vegetable and cereal prices — with lower June commodity prices only a partial offset either way. For context on the path, the Reserve Bank of India projects headline inflation peaking near 5.9% by year-end and core around 4.7%, with the risks to the upside.
Germany's May current account (14:00 CET) and the Bundesbank monthly report (12:00 CET) round out the European data, alongside euro-area and French bill auctions and, in the US evening, the June federal budget statement.
Central Bank Speech Previews
Fed Governor and Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speaks at 11:25 CET on "Modernizing Financial Regulation" at a Bank Policy Institute roundtable, held virtually. Her most recent remarks, on 7 July at an FSB outreach event, were on artificial intelligence in finance: she noted she had initiated the FSB workstream on responsible AI adoption, said the Fed has monitored banks' AI use for nearly a decade across institutions of all sizes, and argued that governance should scale to a use-case's materiality, with proportionality for smaller banks rather than uniform oversight.
Editor's Note: Bowman's Monday appearance is on regulation, not monetary policy, so the direct read-through to rates is limited — the market will look through it to Waller's outlook speech later in the day. Her monetary stance, based on the June FOMC report rather than a fresh speech, has been to keep the statement's cut-leaning guidance despite the hawkish hold, reading the inflation pickup as temporary.
Fed Governor and FOMC voter Christopher Waller delivers an economic outlook speech at 18:30 CET at a New York Association for Business Economics event, "A Conversation with Governor Waller." In his most recent speech, on 6 July at a Bank of Italy conference, he argued that initial conditions matter more than historical averages for how policy transmits — the unusually tight 2022 labour market changed the impact of tightening — that large shocks transmit non-linearly and likely shortened the usual 12-to-24-month lag, and that forward guidance can speed transmission but rigid guidance backfires, citing 2020 guidance that "tied the hands of the FOMC in 2021." In a May lecture, he said the next policy move was "as likely to be a hike as a cut."
Editor's Note: This is the day's most market-relevant speaker: an FOMC voter delivering an economic outlook address the evening before the US CPI. The question is whether he leans back towards his earlier symmetric "hike or cut" framing or tilts one way.
ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel delivers keynote remarks and joins a panel at 18:45 CET at the Annual Economic Reception of the Deputy Minister-President of North Rhine-Westphalia in Münster; the ECB says slides will be published. At a ChaMP research conference in Rome in early July, she argued that "the Iran shock is not over," noting that gas prices remain around 40% higher than before the war and that fresh supply shocks — a European heat wave and El Niño — could lift food prices, with core inflation still strong and further tightening on the table.
Editor's Note: Schnabel is the Governing Council's clearest hawk, and her framing matters in the September meeting and in the June account kept live. A reprise of the "shock not over" line — persistent gas and new food-price risks — supports the case for a further ECB hike.
BoE Chief Economist and MPC member Huw Pill speaks at 20:00 CET in London. In a BBC interview on 9 July, asked whether interest rates would need to rise over the coming year, he said "the short answer is yes," argued the UK has been "running the economy a little bit hotter than the supply side," and noted he was one of two MPC members who voted to raise Bank Rate from 3.75% at the last meeting. The next BoE decision is on 30 July.
Editor's Note: Pill is the MPC's most hawkish voice, on the dissenting side that wanted to hike. Key themes: ['above-supply demand', 'persistent UK inflation', 'dissenting hike vote']
The 23:00 CET entry for ECB President Christine Lagarde is a private meeting with Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh in Washington, D.C., not a public speech — no prepared remarks are scheduled. Her most recent set-piece speech was at the ECB's Sintra Forum on 29 June, where she said the ECB had returned to conventional rate policy with "measured adjustments … calibrated to the shocks we face," put inflation back at the 2% target only in the final quarter of 2027, and described the June 25bp hike as "robust across three scenarios" and data-driven rather than an insurance move.