BoE & Norges Bank Decisions and ECB Speakers: GGMA Day Ahead
Thursday, 5 November 2026 — The Bank of England is expected to raise its rate for the first time in over three years, and central bankers speak 13 times.
Our three themes:
I will be travelling tomorrow, so there won't be a Morning Brief.
The Bank of England is expected to raise Bank Rate to 4.00% at 13:00 CET, its first hike in over three years, and the vote split could move gilts. Bloomberg's survey points to 7-2. Money markets price in about 100 basis points of tightening by September 2027, which most houses think is too much.
Central bankers speak 13 times, and the afternoon in Zurich could move rate expectations. ECB chief economist Philip Lane, SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, who dissented for a hike in October, all appear there. The ECB's wage tracker, revised up on Wednesday, gives Lane and Lagarde reason to sound firm.
Norges Bank is expected to hold at 4.50%, and Swedish CPIF inflation is seen easing to 1.4% y/y from 1.5%, a day after the Riksbank's hike. US claims and productivity at 14:30 CET may matter more for the dollar on the eve of payrolls.
Chart of the day: Bank Rate expected to rise to 4.00% from 3.75%
In brief
08:00 CET · SW CPI YoY (Oct P): consensus 1.2%, previous 1.1%
08:00 CET · SW CPI MoM (Oct P): consensus 0.3%, previous 0.9%
08:00 CET · SW CPIF YoY (Oct P): consensus 1.4%, previous 1.5%
09:00 CET · SZ Unemployment Rate (Oct): consensus 3.0%, previous 3.0%
14:30 CET · US Initial Jobless Claims (31 Oct): consensus 196k, previous 194k
14:30 CET · US Nonfarm Productivity (3Q P): consensus 2.7%, previous 1.4%
14:30 CET · US Unit Labor Costs (3Q P): consensus 0.5%, previous 1.2%
Scenarios
UK: Bank of England decision (13:00 CET, High impact): A hike to 4.00% is expected and priced. A 6-3 vote, or a three-year inflation forecast below 2% y/y, could read as dovish and pull gilt yields lower. A signal for December could lift them.
Norway: Norges Bank decision (10:00 CET, Medium impact): A hold at 4.50% is expected. Wording more open to another hike could lift the krone.
Sweden: CPI and CPIF (October, flash) (08:00 CET, Medium impact): CPIF is seen at 1.4% y/y, down from 1.5%. Core inflation above 0.5% y/y could add to the 44% chance of a December Riksbank hike.
US: initial jobless claims (14:30 CET, Medium impact): 196,000 is expected. A reading above the upper end of the economists’ estimate of 200,000 could stand out a day before payrolls.
US: productivity and unit labour costs (Q3) (14:30 CET, Low impact): Unit labour costs of 0.5% q/q annualised are expected. A rise near 1.6% could add to the case for a December Fed hike.
Switzerland: unemployment rate (09:00 CET, Low impact): No change from 3.0% is expected. A rise could stand out before Schlegel speaks at 13:40 CET.
Central bank speakers
Scheduled speakers: Andrew Hauser (Reserve Bank of Australia, 07:45 CET); Piero Cipollone (ECB, 08:30 CET); Emmanuel Moulin (Banque de France, 09:00 CET); Isabel Schnabel (ECB, 09:00 CET); Ante Žigman (Croatian National Bank, 09:30 CET); Martin Schlegel (Swiss National Bank, 13:40 CET); Beth Hammack (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, 14:50 CET); Tom Barkin (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, 15:10 CET); Tiff Macklem and Carolyn Rogers (Bank of Canada, 16:30 CET); Philip Lane (ECB, 16:40 CET); Christine Lagarde (ECB, 17:00 CET); Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank, 18:45 CET); Primož Dolenc (Banka Slovenije, 19:00 CET).
The full preview
Data release previews
Sweden's flash consumer prices for October come out at 08:00 CET, a day after the Riksbank raised its policy rate to 2.00%.
Economists expect CPIF inflation, the Riksbank's target measure, to ease to 1.4% y/y from 1.5%, with forecasts ranging from 1.3% to 1.6%.
CPIF excluding energy is seen steady at 0.5% y/y, and headline CPI at 1.2% y/y after 1.1%. Monthly CPI is forecast to rise 0.3% m/m after 0.9% in September.
Fiscal measures still hold inflation down, by about 1.5 percentage points on headline CPIF by the Riksbank's calculation, one house notes. The first temporary cut in fuel tax expired on 1 October.
The Riksbank said on Wednesday that the rate will likely be raised further in the coming year. Money markets price in a 44% chance of a second hike in December.
Here is the current Riksbank market pricing as of 04-11-2026, 15:41 CET:
16 Dec: implied 2.07%, +11 bp priced, 44% probability of a hike
3 Feb: implied 2.16%, +20 bp priced, 35% probability of a hike
24 Mar: implied 2.35%, +39 bp priced, 77% probability of a hike
Changes are measured from the policy rate of 2.00%.
Editor's Note: The Riksbank has already moved, so the print shapes the timing of the next hike. Core inflation above 0.5% y/y could support the krona and raise the 44% chance of a December move.
Swiss unemployment for October comes out at 09:00 CET.
Economists expect the rate to stay at 3.0%, and the seasonally adjusted rate at 3.1%.
Money markets price in a 10% chance of an SNB hike in December. SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel speaks in Zurich at 13:40 CET.
Here is the current SNB market pricing as of 04-11-2026, 15:41 CET:
10 Dec: implied -0.03%, +2 bp priced, 10% probability of a hike
18 Mar: implied 0.12%, +16 bp priced, 56% probability of a hike
24 Jun: implied 0.26%, +31 bp priced, 59% probability of a hike
23 Sep: implied 0.40%, +45 bp priced, 54% probability of a hike
Changes are measured from the policy rate of 0.00%.
Editor's Note: Every forecaster expects no change, so a rise above 3.1% in the seasonally adjusted rate could stand out, hours before SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel speaks in Zurich.
ECB policymakers speak eight times on Thursday, a day after euro-area inflation rose to 4.0% y/y in October and the ECB published its wage tracker.
The tracker points to negotiated wage growth of 2.7% y/y in the second half of 2026 and 2.8% y/y in the first half of 2027, slightly higher than before. Excluding one-off payments, it rises from 2.6% y/y in 2026 to 2.8% y/y in the first three quarters of 2027. However, over a longer horizon, the tracker signals some cooling in wage growth.
Several Governing Council members say a further hike is likely unless the inflation outlook improves, with Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel the most explicit. After the 29 October hold, Lagarde said the ECB decides meeting by meeting. Most houses still expect a hike in December, and one calls it the last of the cycle.
Money markets price in an 88% chance of an ECB hike in December.
Here is the current ECB market pricing as of 04-11-2026, 15:41 CET:
17 Dec: implied 2.66%, +22 bp priced, 88% probability of a hike
4 Feb: implied 2.73%, +29 bp priced, 27% probability of a hike
18 Mar: implied 2.87%, +43 bp priced, 56% probability of a hike
29 Apr: implied 2.92%, +47 bp priced, 17% probability of a hike
Changes are measured from today's effective rate of 2.44%. The policy rate is 2.50%.
Editor's Note: It will be interesting to see if ECB policymakers will already react to the sharp fall in energy prices over the last couple of days.
US initial jobless claims for the week to 31 October come out at 14:30 CET.
Economists expect 196,000, up from 194,000, with forecasts from 194,000 to 200,000.
Continuing claims are seen at 1.71 million after 1.70 million. Claims have stayed low, which points to a labour market cooling through slower hiring rather than layoffs, one house says.
Here is the current Fed market pricing as of 04-11-2026, 15:41 CET:
9 Dec: implied 4.08%, +20 bp priced, 80% probability of a hike
27 Jan: implied 4.15%, +27 bp priced, 28% probability of a hike
17 Mar: implied 4.29%, +41 bp priced, 57% probability of a hike
28 Apr: implied 4.36%, +48 bp priced, 27% probability of a hike
Changes are measured from today's effective rate of 3.88%. The target range is 3.75-4.00%.
Editor's Note: Money markets price in an 80% chance of a Fed hike in December. A reading above 200,000, the top of forecasts, could stand out a day before payrolls and trim that pricing.
Preliminary third-quarter US productivity and unit labour costs come out at 14:30 CET.
Economists expect nonfarm productivity to rise 2.7% q/q annualised after 1.4%, with forecasts from 1.7% to 4.3%. Unit labour costs are expected to rise 0.5% q/q annualised after 1.2%, with forecasts from -1.6% to 1.6%.
Output grew faster than hours worked, and stronger productivity should absorb most of the rise in pay, two houses note.
Editor's Note: Unit labour costs are the inflation part of the release. A rise near 1.6% q/q annualised, the top of forecasts, could add to the case for a Fed hike in December, priced at 80%.
Central banks
The Bank of England announces its decision at 13:00 CET with the minutes and the November Monetary Policy Report, followed by Governor Andrew Bailey's press conference.
Economists expect a 25-basis-point hike to 4.00% from 3.75%, with no forecast outside 4.00%.
Headline inflation rose to 3.5% y/y in September on motor fuel, and oil and gas prices now sit above the adverse scenario in the BoE's July report.
Bloomberg's survey points to a 7-2 vote, with Alan Taylor and Swati Dhingra voting to hold. Huw Pill, Megan Greene and Catherine Mann already voted for a hike in September. Some houses see a third dissenter, and one sees Taylor alone.
The new forecasts should show inflation peaking between 4.2% and 4.6% y/y in early 2027 in houses' estimates, against a 3.2% y/y peak in the July report. Several houses expect the two- and three-year forecasts below the 2% target.
Money markets price in a 96% chance of the hike and about 100 basis points of tightening, four hikes, by September 2027. Most houses think that is more than the BoE will deliver.
Even Chief Economist Huw Pill, the committee's most hawkish member, said on 14 October he was "a little bit more sceptical" that the BoE would need to follow market pricing to four hikes.
Here is the current BoE market pricing as of 04-11-2026, 15:41 CET:
5 Nov: implied 3.97%, +24 bp priced, 96% probability of a hike
17 Dec: implied 4.05%, +32 bp priced, 32% probability of a hike
4 Feb: implied 4.26%, +53 bp priced, 83% probability of a hike
18 Mar: implied 4.37%, +64 bp priced, 44% probability of a hike
Changes are measured from today's effective rate of 3.73%.
Source: Bank of England, Monetary Policy Report, July 2026, Table 3.B (pp. 80-81), https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/monetary-policy-report/2026/july/monetary-policy-report-july-2026.pdf
Editor's Note: The hike looks settled, so the vote and the guidance matter more. A 6-3 split or a medium-term inflation forecast below 2% y/y could pull short-dated gilt yields lower and weigh on sterling. Guidance that keeps December open could do the opposite.
Norway's central bank, Norges Bank, announces its decision at 10:00 CET, followed by a press conference.
Economists expect Norway's deposit rates to stay at 4.50%, with no forecast outside it.
The 10:00 CET decision is an interim one with no new forecasts. The bank raised its rate in both May and September, and it said then that it was prepared to raise it further if the inflation outlook warranted it.
Its September path showed the rate averaging 4.6% next year, which leaves room for one more hike.
Source: Norges Bank, Monetary Policy Report 3/2026, Table 3 (p. 55), https://www.norges-bank.no/en/news-events/publications/Monetary-Policy-Report/2026/mpr-32026/
Editor's Note: With no new forecasts, the wording carries the signal.
Central bank speech previews
Andrew Hauser (hawk, Reserve Bank of Australia, 07:45 CET)
RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser speaks in Canberra at 07:45 CET, two days after the RBA raised its cash rate to 4.85% on a 6-3 vote. On 21 October he said the RBA "can't allow expectations to shift away from target", and called that risk "the central banker's nightmare".
Piero Cipollone (dove, ECB, 08:30 CET)
ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone gives a keynote at a conference of regional card schemes and payment infrastructures in Tirana at 08:30 CET, and a text will be published. His recent speeches have covered the digital euro rather than interest rates.
Emmanuel Moulin (leans dovish, Banque de France, 09:00 CET)
Bank of France Governor Emmanuel Moulin speaks in Paris at 09:00 CET. On Tuesday he said the ECB must prevent inflation from spreading beyond energy, after saying on 30 October that the ECB would act on the data at its coming meetings.
Isabel Schnabel (hawk, ECB, 09:00 CET)
ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel opens the ECB's Money Markets Conference in Frankfurt at 09:00 CET, and a text will be published. On 30 September she said that raising rates twice since June "was an appropriate policy decision".
Ante Žigman (neutral, Croatian National Bank, 09:30 CET)
Croatian National Bank Governor Ante Žigman speaks in Opatija at 09:30 CET. In September he said that inflation "is set to remain well above target for an extended period".
Martin Schlegel (neutral, Swiss National Bank, 13:40 CET)
SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel speaks on the transmission and conduct of monetary policy in Switzerland at the SNB and Its Watchers conference in Zurich at 13:40 CET, and a text will be published. The SNB held its rate at 0% in September, when he said its inflation forecasts were "pretty much right in the middle of the range".
Beth Hammack (hawk, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, 14:50 CET)
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack speaks on a panel in Zurich at 14:50 CET. She and Governor Lisa Cook dissented at the Fed's 28 October meeting, each preferring a 25-basis-point hike.
Tom Barkin (leans hawkish, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, 15:10 CET)
Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin takes part in a moderated conversation at 15:10 CET. On 30 October he said the direction of travel for the Fed was straightforward, and the question was pace, adding that "a gradual approach is a good way to go right now".
Tiff Macklem and Carolyn Rogers (leans hawkish, Bank of Canada, 16:30 CET)
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers appear before the Senate banking committee at 16:30 CET, on the day Canada presents its budget. On Tuesday Macklem told MPs that "there could be a need to raise the policy rate further, but given the uncertainties, we will proceed carefully".
Philip Lane (leans dovish, ECB, 16:40 CET)
ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane joins a panel on how central banks interact with the public and the government at the SNB and Its Watchers conference in Zurich at 16:40 CET. In San Francisco on 30 October, he said AI adoption "will be a key determinant of European productivity growth".
Christine Lagarde (neutral, ECB, 17:00 CET)
ECB President Christine Lagarde takes part in "New Dialogues for the Future" in Milan at 17:00 CET. After the 29 October hold she said that "unless there was a major development, the direction of travel is quite clear for all of us".
Joachim Nagel (hawk, Deutsche Bundesbank, 18:45 CET)
Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel speaks in Berlin at 18:45 CET. In a Berlin speech on Tuesday he said that, from today's perspective, a rate rise in December was very likely to be necessary.
Primož Dolenc (leans hawkish, Banka Slovenije, 19:00 CET)
Bank of Slovenia Governor Primož Dolenc speaks in Ljubljana at an event marking 20 years of the euro in Slovenia, where Lagarde appears by video message. On Tuesday he said further action "may be warranted at the December meeting" if the outlook does not improve materially, but that the ECB should not pre-commit.
Also on the calendar
00:50 CET · Japan · BOJ Minutes of Sept. Meeting
01:30 CET · Japan · S&P Global Japan PMI Composite (previous 52.3)
01:30 CET · Japan · S&P Global Japan PMI Services (previous 52)
01:30 CET · Australia · Trade Balance (consensus A$1000m, previous A$495m)
01:30 CET · Australia · Exports MoM (previous 3.7%)
01:30 CET · Australia · Imports MoM (previous 5.8%)
08:00 CET · Germany · Factory Orders MoM (consensus 4.5%, previous -10.6%)
08:00 CET · Germany · Factory Orders WDA YoY (consensus 3.3%, previous 2.7%)
08:00 CET · Norway · Average Monthly Earnings YoY (previous 3.9%)
09:30 CET · Germany · S&P Global Germany Construction PMI (previous 43.5)
10:00 CET · United Kingdom · New Car Registrations YoY (previous 12.0%)
10:30 CET · United Kingdom · S&P Global UK Construction PMI (consensus 46.5, previous 46.1)
11:00 CET · Euro Area · PPI MoM (consensus 2.5%, previous 1.9%)
11:00 CET · Euro Area · PPI YoY (consensus 10.6%, previous 8.2%)
11:30 CET · United States · Challenger Job Cuts YoY (previous -19.9%)
11:30 CET · United States · Challenger Job Cuts Total (previous 43281)
13:01 CET · United Kingdom · SURVEY REPORT: BOE to Raise Rates to 4.00%; Vote 7-2
14:30 CET · Switzerland · SNB's Schlegel at SNB and Its Watchers Conference in Zurich
15:10 CET · United States · Fed's Barkin in Moderated Conversation
16:30 CET · United States · EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (consensus 81, previous 80)
16:30 CET · United States · EIA Working Natural Gas Implied Flow (consensus 81, previous 80)
Related: Today's Briefing: Stocks and Dollar Slip as Democrats Sweep Congress · Our previous preview: Riksbank, Euro-Area Inflation, ISM and ADP (3 Nov) · Previously on the BoE: Bond Market Calls Warsh's Bluff as the BoE Decides (30 Jul)