Tomorrow's Macro Roadmap: US Consumer Confidence Seen Slipping to 80.9 as Job Market Cools
Tuesday, 27 October 2026 — The Conference Board publishes US consumer confidence for October at 15:00 CET, and economists expect the index to slip to 80.9 from 81.9.
Our three themes:
Tuesday is about the US consumer: if jobs keep getting harder to find, a December Fed hike looks less certain than markets think.
First, the US job market as consumers see it. The share of Americans saying jobs are hard to get minus those saying jobs are plentiful rose to -1.7 points in September, the highest since February 2021. Economists expect the Conference Board's confidence index to slip to 80.9 from 81.9. In our view, a further rise in the labour differential the day before the Fed decides could test the 79% odds of a December hike. The gauge has lagged job gains for much of the year, though, and unemployment has held at 4.1% to 4.3%.
The second is US business investment. Durable goods orders are expected to rise 1.9% m/m in September after a 0.1% decline in August, lifted by 155 Boeing orders, so the 0.6% gain expected outside transportation is the cleaner signal. The Empire State index jumped to 25.5 in October from 12.0 expected, and S&P Global's flash manufacturing index rose to 56.0 from 55.5, while the Philadelphia Fed's slipped to 20.9 from 28.0. Tomorrow’s release of the Richmond Fed's index is expected to recover to 0 from -2, and the ISM manufacturing index follows on 2 November. Firm orders would support the view that factories entered the fourth quarter with momentum. Also worth watching is the prices paid component.
Last but not least, euro area credit. The ECB publishes its bank lending survey two days before it decides. In July, banks had tightened standards for loans to firms by a net 7% and expected a further 5%. A sharper tightening would mean higher rates reach lending and, in our view, could cool the 83% chance of a December hike priced into interest rate futures.
Chart of the day: US consumers see the job market at its weakest since 2021
In brief
15:00 CET · Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Oct): consensus 80.9, previous 81.9
15:00 CET · Conf. Board Expectations (Oct): consensus 62, previous 63.6
15:00 CET · Conf. Board Present Situation (Oct): consensus 107, previous 109.3
13:30 CET · Durable Goods Orders (Sep P): consensus 1.9%, previous -0.1%
13:30 CET · Durables Ex Transportation (Sep P): consensus 0.6%, previous 0.2%
Scenarios
US: Conference Board consumer confidence (Oct) (15:00 CET, Medium impact): Economists expect 80.9. A reading at or below 78.8, the low end of forecasts, alongside a higher labour differential would point to a cooling job market and, in our view, could weigh on two-year Treasury yields. A rebound towards the 84 that two houses expect would support the December hike pricing.
US: Durable goods orders (Sep P) (13:30 CET, Medium impact): Economists expect 1.9%, flattered by aircraft. The ex-transportation figure (0.6% expected) is the cleaner read on business investment.
Euro area: ECB bank lending survey (Q3) (10:00 CET, Low impact): Banks expected a net 5% tightening of standards for firms in the third quarter; more would point to financial conditions biting two days before the ECB meets.
The full preview
Data release previews
Economists expect consumer confidence to slip to 80.9 in October from 81.9, with forecasts ranging from 78.8 to 85.
They see the present-situation index at 107, down from 109.3, and expectations at 62, down from 63.6. Analysts say elevated gasoline prices and borrowing costs could weigh on sentiment.
The labour differential, the share of consumers saying jobs are hard to get minus those saying jobs are plentiful, rose to -1.7 points in September, its highest since February 2021, when it was -1.4. It stood at -47.1 in March 2022. The unemployment rate was 4.2% in September. One house says confidence likely deteriorated, with AI-related job-cut announcements weighing on younger and entry-level workers, along with stock market volatility.
One house expects confidence to edge lower to 81.0 and notes that the differential has lagged the improvement in employment for much of the year. Two others see a rebound to around 84.
Bloomberg survey: median 80.9, range 78.8 to 85 (as of 24-10-2026).
Fed market pricing as of 26-10-2026, 16:12 CET:
28 Oct: implied 3.91%, +3 bp priced, 10% (hike) probability of a move
9 Dec: implied 4.11%, +22 bp priced, 79% (hike) probability of a move
27 Jan: implied 4.19%, +31 bp priced, 35% (hike) probability of a move
17 Mar: implied 4.35%, +47 bp priced, 63% (hike) probability of a move
3 basis points priced for 28 Oct, a 10% probability of a 25 basis point rise, and 22 basis points cumulatively by 9 Dec.
Changes are measured from today's effective rate of 3.88%. The target range is 3.75-4.00%.
Editor's Note: Markets price a 10% chance of a Fed hike on Wednesday and 79% by 9 December. A reading at or below the 78.8 low end of forecasts, with a further rise in the labour differential, would point to a cooling job market and, in our view, could trim the December pricing. A rebound towards the 84 that two houses expect would point the other way.
Economists expect durable goods orders to rise 1.9% in September after a 0.1% decline in August, with forecasts ranging from -0.1% to 8.6%.
Excluding transportation, they expect a 0.6% gain after a 0.2% increase in August.
Boeing booked 155 net orders in September, up from 25 in August, which lifts the headline figure, so the figure excluding transportation better guides business investment. One house notes that motor vehicles are likely to remain weak, as the industrial production readings for the segment continue to slide. Computers and electronic products, along with electrical equipment, continue to provide a steady boost to headline orders, though. According to industrial stocks, growth in durables could also be cooling off (see the lower panel in the chart below).
The Empire State index jumped to 25.5 in October from 7.6, versus 12.0 expected, while the Philadelphia Fed's fell to 20.9 from 37.8, versus 28.0 expected, and the Kansas City Fed's eased to 11 from 14, versus 12 expected. The Dallas Fed's index rose to 13.4 from 9.8, versus 8.8 expected. S&P Global's flash manufacturing index rose to 56.0 from 55.9, above the 55.5 predicted. The picture from business surveys is mixed.
Forecasts for the headline range from 0.9% to 2.5%, with orders for computers and electrical equipment, tied to artificial-intelligence investment, cited as steady support.
Bloomberg survey: median 1.9%, range -0.1% to 8.6% (as of 24-10-2026).
Editor's Note: A headline near the 8.6% high end of forecasts, driven by aircraft, would say little about the economy on its own. A reading above 1.1%, the high end of forecasts, would point to firm business investment outside aircraft and, in our view, would back the picture from this month's manufacturing surveys.
The ECB publishes its quarterly bank lending survey at 10:00 CET, two days before its rate decision.
No economist survey covers it.
In the second-quarter survey, banks tightened credit standards for loans to firms by a net 7%, less than the 10% in the first quarter. They cited risks to the economic outlook and a lower risk tolerance. They expected a further net tightening of 5% in the third quarter.
Demand for loans from firms rose slightly, by a net 3%, while demand for housing loans fell by a net 15%. Banks expected housing demand to fall again in the third quarter.
One house says the softer October purchasing managers' survey may signal that tighter financial conditions are starting to bite, and expects the boost from credit and fiscal policy to fade.
ECB market pricing as of 26-10-2026, 16:12 CET:
29 Oct: implied 2.45%, +1 bp priced, 3% (hike) probability of a move
17 Dec: implied 2.65%, +22 bp priced, 83% (hike) probability of a move
4 Feb: implied 2.73%, +29 bp priced, 31% (hike) probability of a move
18 Mar: implied 2.88%, +44 bp priced, 58% (hike) probability of a move
1 basis point priced for 29 Oct, a 3% probability of a 25 basis point rise, and 22 basis points cumulatively by 17 Dec.
Changes are measured from today's effective rate of 2.44%.
Editor's Note: Markets price a 3% chance of an ECB hike on Thursday and 83% by 17 December. A sharper tightening than the 5% banks expected, or a further fall in demand, would show tighter financial conditions reaching lending and, in our view, could temper the December pricing.
Also on the calendar
00:50 CET · Japan · PPI Services YoY (consensus 3.7%, previous 3.7%)
01:01 CET · United Kingdom · BRC Shop Price Index YoY (consensus 1.6%, previous 1.4%)
02:30 CET · China · Industrial Profits YTD YoY (previous 15.7%)
02:30 CET · China · Industrial Profits YoY (previous 4.2%)
08:00 CET · Sweden · Trade Balance (previous -11.9b)
08:00 CET · Sweden · Household Lending YoY (previous 3.3%)
13:15 CET · United States · ADP Weekly Employment Change (previous 18.500k)
13:30 CET · United States · Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (consensus 0.8%, previous 1.6%)
13:30 CET · United States · Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (consensus 0.8%, previous 0.5%)
14:00 CET · United States · FHFA House Price Index MoM (consensus 0.2%, previous 0.3%)
14:00 CET · United States · S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA (consensus 0.3%, previous 0.32%)
14:00 CET · United States · S&P Cotality CS 20-City YoY NSA (consensus 2.6%, previous 2.47%)
14:00 CET · United States · S&P Cotality CS US HPI YoY NSA (consensus 1.9%, previous 1.93%)
15:00 CET · United States · Richmond Fed Manufact. Index (consensus 0, previous -2)
15:00 CET · United States · Richmond Fed Business Conditions (previous -8)
15:00 CET · United States · New Home Sales (consensus 650k, previous 684k)
15:00 CET · United States · New Home Sales MoM (consensus -4.8%, previous 6.4%)
15:30 CET · United States · Dallas Fed Services Activity (previous -1.8)
22:45 CET · New Zealand · Filled Jobs SA MoM (previous 0.2%)
Today's Briefing: Oil Retreats From Six-Month High as French Bonds Rally — https://ggma-app.com/public-article/oil-retreats-from-six-month-high-as-french-bonds-rally-216
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Tags: Conference Board consumer confidence October 2026, US labour market differential, US durable goods orders September 2026, ECB bank lending survey, Fed October meeting, ECB October meeting, economic calendar 27 October 2026