Tomorrow's Macro Roadmap: Bank of Japan Decision With Tokyo Inflation and German CPI
Friday, 30 October 2026 — Japan opens Friday with Tokyo's October consumer prices and September labour data at 00:30 CET, and the Bank of Japan announces its decision and new forecasts during the Asian session.
Our themes:
The Bank of Japan is expected to hold at 1.25% after September's rise, so the new forecasts and Governor Ueda matter more than the decision. Several houses expect the Board to say that underlying inflation is broadly in line with its 2% target. Money markets price a 79% chance of a rise in December.
Tokyo's consumer prices, out at 00:30 CET, are the last inflation reading before the decision. Core inflation is seen easing to 2.6% y/y from 2.7%, still well above the national rate of 2.1% in September. The labour market is tight but no longer tightening, with the jobs ratio expected to hold at 1.18.
Germany's inflation is expected to drop to 3.0% from 3.3%, mainly because of a cut in fuel taxes, the day after the ECB held its rates. The state CPI figures for Hesse, Bavaria, Brandenburg, Saxony, Baden-Württemberg and North Rhine-Westphalia come out from 10:00 CET onwards.
Chart of the day: Tokyo jumped ahead of national inflation in September
In brief
The Bank of Japan announces its decision on Friday, with no fixed time, and publishes its quarterly Outlook Report with new forecasts: consensus 1.25%
00:30 CET · JN Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food YoY (Oct): consensus 2.6%, previous 2.7%
00:30 CET · JN Tokyo CPI YoY (Oct): consensus 2.7%, previous 2.7%
00:30 CET · JN Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food, Energy YoY (Oct): consensus 2.7%, previous 3.0%
00:30 CET · JN Jobless Rate (Sep): consensus 2.5%, previous 2.5%
00:30 CET · JN Job-To-Applicant Ratio (Sep): consensus 1.18, previous 1.18
14:00 CET · GE CPI YoY (Oct P): consensus 3.0%, previous 3.3%
14:00 CET · GE CPI MoM (Oct P): consensus 0.1%, previous 0.6%
Scenarios
Japan: Tokyo CPI (Oct) and labour data (Sep) (00:30 CET, Low impact): Core 2.6% expected. 2.9% or more supports a December BoJ rise (79% priced); a fall in the ex-energy measure towards 2.3% eases it.
Japan: BoJ decision and Outlook Report (Asian session, High impact): A hold at 1.25% is fully expected. A declaration that inflation has reached 2% and a higher FY2027 core forecast should cement a December rate hike, as well as a few dissenters. A more cautious forecast could weigh on the yen.
Germany: CPI (Oct, flash) (14:00 CET, Low impact): 3.0% expected, from 3.3%. 3.3% or more would point to energy costs spreading and support December ECB pricing (84%).
The full preview
Data release previews
Tokyo's October consumer price index (CPI) comes out at 00:30 CET.
Economists expect core inflation, which excludes fresh food and is the BoJ's main gauge, to slow to 2.6% from 2.7%, with the headline rate unchanged at 2.7%. The measure that also excludes energy is seen at 2.7% y/y, down from 3.0%.
In September, national core inflation was 2.1% y/y and the measure excluding energy 2.4%, against 2.7% and 3.0% in Tokyo.
One house expects the measure excluding energy to fall as a free water charge drops out of the comparison and September's holiday hotel prices ease. Higher electricity and gas charges limit the slowdown in the core rate to 0.1 percentage point.
Another analyst expects strong upward momentum as higher petroleum product prices pass through, and a third reads the elevated core rate as a green light for another rate rise.
Bloomberg survey: median 2.6%, range 2.4% to 2.9% (as of 29-10-2026).
BoJ market pricing as of 29-10-2026, 18:49 CET:
30 Oct: implied 1.23%, 0 bp priced, 2% (hike) probability of a move
18 Dec: implied 1.43%, +20 bp priced, 79% (hike) probability of a move
22 Jan: implied 1.50%, +27 bp priced, 27% (hike) probability of a move
18 Mar: implied 1.61%, +38 bp priced, 45% (hike) probability of a move
0 basis points priced for 30 Oct, a 2% probability of a 25 basis point rise, and 20 basis points cumulatively by 18 Dec.
Changes are measured from today's effective rate of 1.23%. The policy rate is 1.25%.
Editor's Note: The Tokyo figure arrives hours before the BoJ decision and comes about three weeks before the national figures. A core reading of 2.9% or more, the top of the forecast range, would support the case for a December rise, priced at 79%. A drop in the measure excluding energy towards 2.3% would ease it.
Japan's September labour figures come out with the Tokyo data at 00:30 CET.
Economists expect the jobless rate to hold at 2.5% and the ratio of job openings to applicants at 1.18.
Forecasts are tightly grouped: 2.4% to 2.5% for unemployment and 1.17 to 1.19 for the jobs ratio. One house reads demand for workers in services as keeping the market firm, and another calls low, stable unemployment a sign of a fairly tight labour market.
The BoJ said in July that labour conditions had tightened more than the output gap alone explains, as fewer women and older people join the workforce, and that this puts more upward pressure on wages.
Bloomberg survey: median 2.5%, range 2.4% to 2.5% (as of 29-10-2026).
Germany publishes its flash consumer price index (CPI) for October at 14:00 CET.
Economists expect the annual rate to ease to 3.0% from 3.3% and the EU-harmonised CPI to 3.1% from 3.3%, with prices up 0.1% on the month. The state CPI figures for Hesse, Bavaria, Brandenburg, Saxony, Baden-Württemberg and North Rhine-Westphalia come out from 10:00 CET.
Forecasts for the national rate run from 2.8% to 3.4%. Most houses link the slowdown to the cut in fuel taxes, which lowers petrol and diesel prices, while households heating with oil or gas still face higher bills.
One house sees energy inflation falling to 10.4% from 13.4%, with core inflation steady at 2.5% and airfares a risk to the downside. Another expects vegetable prices to drop, based on wholesale data.
The figures come a day after the ECB kept rates unchanged and said it is not committing to a path. Money markets put the chance of a December rise at 84%.
Bloomberg survey: median 3.0%, range 2.8% to 3.4% (as of 29-10-2026).
ECB market pricing as of 29-10-2026, 18:49 CET:
17 Dec: implied 2.65%, +21 bp priced, 84% (hike) probability of a move
4 Feb: implied 2.71%, +27 bp priced, 24% (hike) probability of a move
18 Mar: implied 2.85%, +41 bp priced, 55% (hike) probability of a move
29 Apr: implied 2.91%, +47 bp priced, 24% (hike) probability of a move
21 basis points priced for 17 Dec, an 84% probability of a 25 basis point rise.
Changes are measured from today's effective rate of 2.44%. The policy rate is 2.50%.
Editor's Note: A drop to 3.0% is the consensus and comes mainly from a tax measure, so it says little about the underlying trend. Core inflation steady at about 2.5% would keep December alive at 84%, while a headline rate of 3.3% or more, despite the fuel tax cut, would point to energy costs spreading.
Central banks
The Bank of Japan announces its decision on Friday, with no fixed time, and publishes its quarterly Outlook Report with new forecasts.
Every economist surveyed expects the policy rate to stay at 1.25% after September's rise, and Governor Kazuo Ueda holds a news conference afterwards.
The BoJ raised its rate to 1.25% in September by seven votes to two. Board members Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato wanted no change, while the statement said the BoJ would continue to raise rates.
In July, the Board's median forecast put core inflation at 2.5% this fiscal year and 2.4% next, and the measure excluding energy at 2.6% next year. Growth was forecast at 0.6% y/y this fiscal year and 0.8% in each of the following two.
Several houses expect the Board to say that underlying inflation is now broadly consistent with its 2% target. One expects a vote of eight to one, with Hajime Takata dissenting in favour of a rise, and another sees no need for back-to-back increases.
Board member Junko Koeda said on 15 October that the neutral rate is "considerably above 1 percent" and that the BoJ "should not become overly cautious about raising the policy interest rate".
Markets price 20 basis points of tightening by the December meeting, and most houses see the next rise then, some in January.
Bloomberg survey: median 1.25%, range 1.25% to 1.25% (as of 29-10-2026).
BoJ market pricing as of 29-10-2026, 18:49 CET:
30 Oct: implied 1.23%, 0 bp priced, 2% (hike) probability of a move
18 Dec: implied 1.43%, +20 bp priced, 79% (hike) probability of a move
22 Jan: implied 1.50%, +27 bp priced, 27% (hike) probability of a move
18 Mar: implied 1.61%, +38 bp priced, 45% (hike) probability of a move
0 basis points priced for 30 Oct, a 2% probability of a 25 basis point rise, and 20 basis points cumulatively by 18 Dec.
Changes are measured from today's effective rate of 1.23%. The policy rate is 1.25%.
Source: Bank of Japan, Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (July 2026), The Bank's View, https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor2607a.pdf
Editor's Note: A hold is fully expected, so the yen will trade on the forecasts and on Ueda's words. A declaration that underlying inflation has reached 2%, with a higher core forecast for next year, would back the 79% December pricing. Silence on timing, or a Board unanimous for no change, would push it out.
Also on the calendar
00:50 CET · Japan · Retail Sales YoY (consensus 3.3%, previous 2.7%)
00:50 CET · Japan · Retail Sales MoM (consensus 0.3%, previous -1.2%)
00:50 CET · Japan · Dept. Store, Supermarket Sales YoY (previous 0.8%)
00:50 CET · Japan · Industrial Production MoM (consensus 1.2%, previous -2.4%)
00:50 CET · Japan · Industrial Production YoY (consensus 1.4%, previous 2.7%)
01:01 CET · United Kingdom · Lloyds Business Barometer (previous 41)
01:01 CET · United Kingdom · Lloyds Own Price Expectations (previous 52)
01:30 CET · Australia · PPI QoQ (previous 1.3%)
01:30 CET · Australia · PPI YoY (previous 3.6%)
01:30 CET · Australia · Private Sector Credit MoM (consensus 0.5%, previous 0.6%)
01:30 CET · Australia · Private Sector Credit YoY (previous 8.4%)
06:00 CET · Japan · Housing Starts YoY (consensus 2.9%, previous 6.1%)
06:00 CET · Japan · Annualized Housing Starts (consensus 0.751m, previous 0.753m)
07:15 CET · Switzerland · SNB Publishes 9-Month Results
08:00 CET · Germany · Import Price Index MoM (consensus 2.0%, previous 1.0%)
08:00 CET · Germany · Import Price Index YoY (consensus 10.3%, previous 8.3%)
08:00 CET · United Kingdom · Nationwide House PX MoM (consensus -0.2%, previous -0.2%)
08:00 CET · United Kingdom · Nationwide House Px NSA YoY (consensus 0.6%, previous 0.8%)
08:00 CET · Norway · Unemployment Rate (previous 2.0%)
08:00 CET · Norway · Unemployment Rate SA (previous 2.0%)
09:00 CET · Switzerland · KOF Leading Indicator (consensus 108.1, previous 109.1)
09:55 CET · Germany · Unemployment Change (000's) (consensus 5.0k, previous 12.0k)
09:55 CET · Germany · Unemployment Claims Rate SA (consensus 6.4%, previous 6.4%)
10:00 CET · Euro Area · ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters
10:00 CET · Norway · Norges Bank Net FX transactions (previous NK176m)
10:00 CET · Italy · ECB's Panetta Speaks in Rome
10:00 CET · Germany · GDP SA QoQ (consensus 0.1%, previous 0.3%)
10:00 CET · Germany · GDP NSA YoY (consensus 1.2%, previous 1.0%)
10:00 CET · Germany · GDP WDA YoY (consensus 1.1%, previous 1.0%)
10:30 CET · United Kingdom · DMP 1 Year CPI Expectations (consensus 3.5%, previous 3.3%)
10:30 CET · United Kingdom · DMP 3M 1 Year CPI Expectations (previous 3.1%)
10:30 CET · United Kingdom · DMP Output Price Expectations (previous 3.9%)
10:30 CET · United Kingdom · DMP 3M Output Price Expectations (consensus 3.8%, previous 3.7%)
11:00 CET · Euro Area · GDP SA QoQ (consensus 0.2%, previous 0.6%)
11:00 CET · Euro Area · GDP SA YoY (consensus 1.0%, previous 1.2%)
11:00 CET · Euro Area · Unemployment Rate (consensus 6.4%, previous 6.4%)
13:30 CET · Canada · GDP MoM (consensus 0.2%, previous 0.0%)
13:30 CET · Canada · GDP YoY (consensus 1.7%, previous 1.4%)
13:30 CET · Canada · GDP Advance Estimate MoM (previous 0.2%)
13:30 CET · United States · Employment Cost Index (consensus 0.8%, previous 0.9%)
14:45 CET · United States · MNI Chicago PMI (consensus 56.1, previous 58.8)
17:00 CET · United States · Fed's Daly Gives Introductory Remarks
17:10 CET · Euro Area · ECB's Lane Speaks in San Francisco
17:30 CET · United States · Fed's Musalem Delivers Keynote Address
20:00 CET · United States · Agricultural Prices Paid (previous 5.3%)
20:00 CET · United States · Agriculture Prices Received (previous -2.0%)
Today's Briefing: Fed Holds With Two Dissents for a Hike as Alphabet Revives AI Doubts — https://ggma-app.com/public-article/fed-holds-with-two-dissents-for-a-hike-as-alphabet-revives-ai-doubts-222
Tags: Bank of Japan decision 30 October 2026, BoJ Outlook Report October 2026, Tokyo CPI October 2026, Japan unemployment rate September 2026, Japan jobs to applicants ratio, German inflation October 2026, German CPI flash estimate, economic calendar 30 October 2026