Macro Roadmap 08-01-2026 : Swiss CPI, SNB minutes, US Jobless claims & productivity in focus
Macro Roadmap: Swiss CPI, SNB minutes, US Jobless claims & productivity in focus
The December Swiss inflation rate is expected to edge up to 0.1% year over year, in line with the SNB's current inflation forecast.
The SNB will release the minutes of its last monetary policy meeting in December last year at which the central bank left is policy rate unchanged at 0% and said it remains willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary.
The EU will publish the business and consumer surveys for December. Of particular interest will be the selling prices expectations of businesses and companies.
In the US, jobless claims, productivity, and unit labour cost data will be the main events. According to JPMorgan, residual seasonality can cause jobless claims to hit annual lows at the end of December and early January, which is why they expect another low in claims. Claims should then start to rebound later in January. Initial claims are similar to the same week in the past couple of years, which is a positive sign for the job market. Continuing claims have been trending lower recently, which is a positive sign for the labour market.
JPMorgan expects nonfarm business productivity to rise 6.1% q/q saar in 3Q, which, excluding quarters immediately after recessions, would be the best single-quarter performance in over 20 years. Productivity can be volatile, and the 2.3% over-year-ago increase should be more representative of the trend. That would be the best since 4Q23 (2.5%). With productivity growth exceeding hourly compensation, unit labour costs would fall 2.2% q/q saa and rise 2.3% oya. The year-over-year pace of ULC is still slightly above the Fed’s 2% inflation target.
Good luck,
Günter