Tomorrow's Macro Roadmap: ECB Decision in Focus Alongside US PCE Inflation and Jobless Claims
Thursday, 29 October 2026 — The European Central Bank announces its decision at 14:15 CET, and President Christine Lagarde holds her news conference at 14:45 CET.
Our themes:
The ECB is set to hold, and Lagarde's guidance regarding the December meeting might move the euro more than the decision itself. Since the September meeting, a weaker euro, higher gas and power futures have run well above the ECB's assumptions, adding to inflation risk. Wider French and Italian spreads and riskier credit have tightened conditions in the other direction and could pose a downward risk to the growth outlook. Meanwhile, the rates market prices in an 83% chance of a rate increase in December.
In the US, the core PCE reading at 13:30 CET decides whether the Fed's December rise remains the base case. Economists expect 0.3% m/m, and GGMA's own model calls 0.33%. Several houses see a 0.4% increase, which would back the 84% December pricing and lift two-year yields.
To be sure, jobless claims remain low. Economists expect 198,000 after 194,000, and only a print above the 205,000 top of the range would point to layoffs picking up.
Chart of the day: what has moved since the ECB's September meeting
In brief
The ECB announces its rate decision for the euro area at 14:15 CET, and Lagarde speaks at 14:45 CET: consensus 2.50%
13:30 CET · US Initial Jobless Claims (24 Oct): consensus 198k, previous 194k
13:30 CET · US Continuing Claims (17 Oct): consensus 1720k, previous 1728k
13:30 CET · US Core PCE Price Index YoY (Sep): consensus 3.1%, previous 3.0%
13:30 CET · US PCE Price Index YoY (Sep): consensus 3.6%, previous 3.4%
13:30 CET · US Core PCE Price Index MoM (Sep): consensus 0.3%, previous 0.2%
13:30 CET · US PCE Price Index MoM (Sep): consensus 0.5%, previous 0.3%
Weekly jobless claims land at 13:30 CET with the PCE data: consensus 198k
Scenarios
United States: PCE prices (Sep) (13:30 CET, High impact): Core 0.3% m/m expected (GGMA 0.33%). 0.4% backs the 84% December Fed pricing and lifts two-year yields; 0.2% leaves room to push it out.
United States: GDP (3Q, first estimate) and jobless claims (13:30 CET, Medium impact): Growth of 3.2% annualised expected; claims 198,000. Claims above 205,000 would be the first sign of layoffs picking up.
Euro area: ECB decision and Lagarde (14:15 / 14:45 CET, High impact): A hold at 2.50% expected (2% priced for a rise). A clear nod to December (83%) supports the euro; stress on tighter conditions doing the work pushes the pricing out.
Speakers
Scheduled speakers: Petra Tschudin (Swiss National Bank, 18:30 CET).
The full preview
Data release previews
The US releases September personal income, spending and PCE prices at 13:30 CET.
Economists expect the core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, to rise 0.3% m/m and 3.1% y/y after 3.0%. The headline index is seen rising 0.5% m/m, lifting the annual rate to 3.6% from 3.4%.
The 51 forecasts for the headline index centre on 0.5% m/m within a 0.4% to 0.6% range. The 59 for the core centre on 0.3% m/m and 3.1% y/y, with monthly calls from 0.2% to 0.4%.
Spending is seen rising 0.6% in nominal terms but only 0.1% after prices, as higher petrol prices account for much of the gain.
GGMA's own model translates the September consumer and producer price data into the PCE basket. It calls 0.51% for the headline and 0.33% for the core, a touch above the consensus. Energy adds about 0.21 percentage points to the headline, and airfares add to transport services.
Analysts are split between 0.3% and 0.4% for the core. The highest call we read, 0.37% before rounding, rests on firm core consumer prices and producer-price signals, which would be the hottest monthly pace since January.
In the third-quarter GDP report published at the same time, economists look for the GDP price index to rise 3.2% annualised, down from 6.1%, and the quarterly core PCE price index to rise 2.4%, down from 3.3%. Money markets put the chance of a Fed rate rise on 9 December at 84%.
Bloomberg survey: median 0.5%, range 0.4% to 0.6% (as of 28-10-2026).
Fed market pricing as of 28-10-2026, 18:25 CET:
28 Oct: implied 3.90%, +2 bp priced, 7% (hike) probability of a move
9 Dec: implied 4.11%, +23 bp priced, 84% (hike) probability of a move
27 Jan: implied 4.21%, +33 bp priced, 42% (hike) probability of a move
17 Mar: implied 4.38%, +50 bp priced, 68% (hike) probability of a move
2 basis points priced for 28 Oct, a 7% probability of a 25 basis point rise, and 23 basis points cumulatively by 9 Dec.
Changes are measured from today's effective rate of 3.88%. The target range is 3.75-4.00%.
Editor's Note: A core reading of 0.4% would back the 84% December pricing whatever the Fed signals tonight, and would lift two-year Treasury yields. A 0.2% would leave room to push December out. The headline matters less, as petrol prices are already known.
Weekly jobless claims land at 13:30 CET with the PCE data.
Economists expect initial claims of 198,000 for the week to 24 October, after 194,000. Continuing claims, a week behind, are seen at 1.720 million after 1.728 million.
Forecasts run from 191,000 to 205,000. The four-week average stands at 197,750, and the insured unemployment rate at 1.1%.
Two forecasters see claims at 195,000. One notes that if unadjusted claims fall as much as in the same week last year, the adjusted figure could drop to about 184,000. Another says seasonal patterns tend to push the series lower towards the year-end.
Continuing claims rose 25,000 in the week to 10 October, but their four-week average is still more than 10% below a year earlier, which points to easing pressure on unemployment.
Bloomberg survey: median 198k, range 191k to 205k (as of 28-10-2026).
Editor's Note: Initial jobless claims matter less than PCE on Thursday unless they leave their range. A reading above the 205,000 top of the range would be the first sign of the slower hiring reaching layoffs, and continuing claims above 1.73 million would point the same way.
Central banks
The ECB announces its rate decision for the euro area at 14:15 CET, and Lagarde speaks at 14:45 CET.
Economists expect all three key rates to stay where the September rise left them: the deposit facility rate at 2.50%, the main refinancing rate at 2.65% and the marginal lending facility at 2.90%. Forecasts for the deposit facility rate run from 2.50% to 2.75%.
Since the 10 September meeting, the euro has fallen 4.2% against the dollar and 2.5% on a trade-weighted basis, both of which add to inflation. Dutch gas is up 18% and Brent crude 7%. Gas and power futures for 2027 and 2028 trade between roughly 40% and 75% above the ECB's September assumptions, and Brent futures 8% to 13% above.
The French 10-year spread over Bunds has widened 65 basis points to 159 since the meeting and Italy's 30 to 118, while the Crossover index of riskier corporate credit is 60 basis points wider. These moves tighten financial conditions in the other direction. Two-year Bund yields are 13 basis points lower, though, and non-energy commodities are down 7.5%.
In September, ECB staff projected inflation of 3.0% this year, 2.5% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028, with core inflation at 2.6% in 2027. In their adverse energy scenario, 2027 inflation reaches 3.2%. Thursday brings no new projections; the next set comes on 17 December.
All the research houses in our sample call for a hold, and most pencil in one more rise in December. They split on what follows: several see a peak at 2.75%, others a deposit rate of 3.00% early in 2027. One house expects Lagarde to say little on France and to argue that it is up to France to fix its public finances.
Bloomberg survey: median 2.50%, range 2.50% to 2.75% (as of 28-10-2026).
ECB market pricing as of 28-10-2026, 18:25 CET:
29 Oct: implied 2.45%, 0 bp priced, 2% (hike) probability of a move
17 Dec: implied 2.65%, +21 bp priced, 83% (hike) probability of a move
4 Feb: implied 2.74%, +29 bp priced, 33% (hike) probability of a move
18 Mar: implied 2.90%, +45 bp priced, 64% (hike) probability of a move
0 basis points priced for 29 Oct, a 2% probability of a 25 basis point rise, and 21 basis points cumulatively by 17 Dec.
Changes are measured from today's effective rate of 2.44%.
Source: European Central Bank, ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, September 2026, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/projections/html/ecb.projections202609_ecbstaff~8e340fc69d.en.html
Editor's Note: A hold at the ECB's deposit facility rate and main refinancing rate is all but fully priced. The reaction rests on what Lagarde says about December, priced at 83% for a rise, and about France. A clear nod to December would support the euro, while stress on tighter financial conditions doing the ECB's work would push the pricing out and weigh on the euro.
Also on the calendar
00:50 CET · Japan · Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (previous -¥161.6b)
00:50 CET · Japan · Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (previous ¥128.3b)
00:50 CET · Japan · Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (previous ¥1454.2b)
00:50 CET · Japan · Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (previous -¥66.5b)
01:00 CET · New Zealand · ANZ Activity Outlook (previous 47.9)
01:00 CET · New Zealand · ANZ Business Confidence (previous 51.9)
01:30 CET · Australia · Export Price Index QoQ (previous 1.1%)
01:30 CET · Australia · Import Price Index QoQ (previous 5.7%)
06:00 CET · Japan · Consumer Confidence Index (consensus 35.1, previous 35.4)
08:00 CET · Sweden · Economic Tendency Survey (previous 107.1)
08:00 CET · Sweden · Consumer Confidence (previous 102.2)
08:00 CET · Sweden · Manufacturing Confidence SA (previous 106.3)
08:00 CET · Sweden · GDP Indicator SA MoM (previous 1.1%)
08:00 CET · Sweden · GDP Indicator WDA YoY (previous 3.5%)
08:00 CET · Sweden · GDP Indicator SA QoQ (consensus 0.3%, previous 1.4%)
08:00 CET · Sweden · GDP Indicator WDA YoY (consensus 2.9%, previous 2.8%)
08:00 CET · Sweden · Retail Sales MoM (previous 0.8%)
08:00 CET · Sweden · Retail Sales WDA YoY (previous 6.9%)
08:00 CET · Sweden · Wages Non-Manual Workers YoY (previous 2.9%)
10:30 CET · United Kingdom · Net Consumer Credit (consensus 2.0b, previous 2.5b)
10:30 CET · United Kingdom · Consumer Credit YoY (previous 9.6%)
10:30 CET · United Kingdom · Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (consensus 4.2b, previous 4.4b)
10:30 CET · United Kingdom · Mortgage Approvals (consensus 54.0k, previous 54.9k)
10:30 CET · United Kingdom · Money Supply M4 MoM (previous 0.4%)
10:30 CET · United Kingdom · M4 Money Supply YoY (previous 4.4%)
10:30 CET · United Kingdom · M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (previous 2.8%)
11:00 CET · Euro Area · Economic Confidence (consensus 97.5, previous 97.9)
11:00 CET · Euro Area · Industrial Confidence (consensus -3.8, previous -3.8)
11:00 CET · Euro Area · Services Confidence (consensus 5.8, previous 6.1)
11:00 CET · Euro Area · Consumer Confidence (consensus -17.9, previous -17.9)
13:30 CET · Canada · Payroll Employment Change - SEPH (previous 26.1k)
13:30 CET · United States · Personal Income (consensus 0.3%, previous 0.2%)
13:30 CET · United States · Personal Spending (consensus 0.6%, previous 0.9%)
13:30 CET · United States · Real Personal Spending (consensus 0.1%, previous 0.6%)
13:30 CET · United States · Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg (previous 197.75k)
13:30 CET · United States · GDP Annualized QoQ (consensus 3.2%, previous 2.2%)
13:30 CET · United States · Personal Consumption (consensus 3.4%, previous 3.8%)
13:30 CET · United States · GDP Price Index (consensus 3.2%, previous 6.1%)
14:15 CET · Euro Area · ECB Marginal Lending Facility (consensus 2.9%, previous 2.9%)
14:45 CET · Euro Area · ECB President Christine Lagarde Holds Press Conference
15:30 CET · United States · EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (consensus 76, previous 77)
15:30 CET · United States · EIA Working Natural Gas Implied Flow (consensus 76, previous 77)
17:00 CET · Euro Area · ECB's Kocher, Sleijpen Speak in Vienna
22:00 CET · New Zealand · ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (previous 97.6)
22:00 CET · New Zealand · ANZ Consumer Confidence MoM (previous -0.4%)
Central bank speech previews
Petra Tschudin (Swiss National Bank, 18:30 CET)
SNB Governing Board member Petra Tschudin and Alternate Board member Thomas Moser speak at the SNB's money market event in Geneva at 18:30 CET, according to the SNB's schedule. Their speech, "Liquidités contre sûretés: l'approche de la BNS", covers how the SNB lends against collateral, an operational topic, and the SNB publishes the text when it is delivered. Tschudin is one of the three members who held the SNB's rate at 0% in September. The SNB's summary of that discussion, published on 22 October, found "still no signs of second-round effects". It also said that "an increased willingness to intervene is no longer necessary in the current environment". Swap traders price in 54 basis points of SNB rate rises by September 2027.
Today's Briefing: SK Hynix Revives the AI Trade as the RBNZ Surprises With a Hold — https://ggma-app.com/public-article/sk-hynix-revives-the-ai-trade-as-the-rbnz-surprises-with-a-hold-220
Next GGMA Live Session: FOMC decision, Wednesday 28 October, 19:00 CET, in the app's Discussion Forum Light. Register at https://ggma-app.com/sign-up and reply in the chat to be added as a guest.
Tags: ECB decision 29 October 2026, ECB rate decision October 2026, Lagarde press conference, US PCE inflation September 2026, core PCE forecast, US jobless claims, US GDP third quarter 2026, economic calendar 29 October 2026