US & Canada Jobs Reports and Fed Speakers: GGMA Day Ahead

Roadmap · By Dr Günter Grimm · 5 November 2026

Friday, 6 November 2026 — The US and Canadian jobs reports land at 14:30 CET, with Fed officials reacting through the day.

Our three themes:

The US jobs report at 14:30 CET could decide whether money markets keep pricing in a 79% chance of a Fed hike in December. Economists expect payrolls to rise 65,000 and unemployment to stay at 4.2%, with wage growth easing to 2.9% y/y. The latter may matter more than the headline numbers, as the Fed is more focused on inflation than growth right now. A surprising uptick could move a Fed December rate hike more into focus. Note that the JOLTS quits rate has ticked up lately, pointing to a tighter labour market.

Canada's report lands at the same minute and could tip the Bank of Canada's December decision, priced at 47% for a hike. After 110,000 jobs were lost in August and September, economists expect a 15,000 gain and unemployment steady at 6.5%.

Fed officials react in real time, and their split could move Treasury yields. Lorie Logan wants at least two more hikes and Alberto Musalem thinks more tightening soon is warranted, while John Williams and Michelle Bowman said before the October meeting that there was no urgency. Musalem speaks at 15:10 CET and Bowman at 18:15 CET.

Chart of the day: US payrolls expected to rise 65,000 in October

In brief

14:30 CET · US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct): consensus 65k, previous 29k
14:30 CET · US Unemployment Rate (Oct): consensus 4.2%, previous 4.2%
16:00 CET · US U. of Mich. Sentiment (Nov P): consensus 48, previous 48
14:30 CET · CA Unemployment Rate (Oct): consensus 6.5%, previous 6.5%
14:30 CET · CA Net Change in Employment (Oct): consensus 15.0k, previous -68.3k
00:30 CET · JN Labor Cash Earnings YoY (Sep): consensus 3.8%, previous 3.8%
09:00 CET · SZ SECO Consumer Confidence (Oct): consensus -35.5, previous -35.8

Scenarios

US: employment report (October) (14:30 CET, High impact): Payrolls of 65,000 and unemployment at 4.2% are expected. A print below 26,000, the bottom of forecasts, or unemployment at 4.3% could trim the 79% chance of a December Fed hike. Wage growth of 3.0% y/y or more could add to it.
Canada: Labour Force Survey (October) (14:30 CET, High impact): A 15,000 gain is expected. A third straight fall in employment could trim the 47% chance of a December Bank of Canada hike.
US: University of Michigan sentiment (November, preliminary) (16:00 CET, Medium impact): Year-ahead inflation expectations are seen at 4.7%. A reading above 4.8% could add to the case for a December Fed hike.
Japan: labour cash earnings (September) (00:30 CET, Medium impact): Total pay of 3.8% y/y is expected. A reading at 4.0% or above could firm the 79% chance of a December BoJ hike and support the yen.
Switzerland: SECO consumer confidence (October) (09:00 CET, Low impact): An index of -35.5 is expected. A further rise in price expectations could stand out before Tschudin speaks.

Central bank speakers

Scheduled speakers: Lorie Logan (Fed, 01:00 CET); John Williams (Fed, 10:30 CET); Philip R. Lane (ECB, 10:30 CET); Petra Tschudin (SNB, 12:00 CET); Huw Pill (BoE, 13:15 CET); Alberto Musalem (Fed, 15:10 CET); Michelle Bowman (Fed, 18:15 CET); Kazuo Ueda (BoJ, Washington, time not published).

The full preview

Data release previews

The US October employment report comes out at 14:30 CET.

Economists expect nonfarm payrolls to rise 65,000 after 29,000 in September, with forecasts from 26,000 to 125,000, and the unemployment rate to stay at 4.2%.

One house sees downside risks to the unemployment rate on the back of low initial jobless claims. Another expects some bounceback in total jobs, as high-frequency employment signals have remained encouraging.

Most houses describe a low-hire, low-fire labour market, with healthcare doing most of the hiring on the back of an early flu season.

Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% m/m, with the annual rate easing to 2.9% y/y from 3.0%. Private payrolls are expected to rise by 62,000.

The Fed held its target range at 3.75%-4.00% in October after a hike in September, and Chair Kevin Warsh called the labour side of the mandate "quite positive".

Money markets price in a 79% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed hike on 9 December.

Here is the current Fed market pricing as of 05-11-2026, 14:28 CET:

9 Dec: implied 4.08%, +20 bp priced, 79% probability of a hike
27 Jan: implied 4.14%, +26 bp priced, 25% probability of a hike
17 Mar: implied 4.29%, +40 bp priced, 57% probability of a hike
28 Apr: implied 4.35%, +47 bp priced, 25% probability of a hike

Changes are measured from today's effective rate of 3.88%. The target range is 3.75-4.00%.

Editor's Note: With the Fed focused on inflation, several houses think only a very weak report, perhaps a fall in payrolls, would shift December pricing. Wage growth could matter more: 3.0% y/y or above could firm the case for a hike, while unemployment at 4.3% could trim it.

The University of Michigan's preliminary November consumer sentiment index comes out at 16:00 CET.

Economists expect 48, unchanged from October, with forecasts from 45.7 to 53.

Year-ahead inflation expectations are seen at 4.7% and the 5-10 year measure at 3.5%, both unchanged. Current conditions are expected at 46.9 and expectations at 49.

In September, 60% of consumers expected unemployment to rise over the next year, up from 57% in August and about a third in early 2024, the survey's own table shows.

Inflation expectations rose in October for the second month in a row, to their highest since May, the survey says. The year-ahead measure climbed to 4.7% from 4.6%, and the 5-10 year measure to 3.5% from 3.4%.

Sentiment has fallen since a July high of 55.2. Lower petrol prices since late September could offer some relief, two houses say, but household purchasing power remains limited.

Editor's Note: The two halves of the survey pull the Fed in opposite directions. More consumers expecting job losses would argue for patience, while year-ahead inflation expectations above 4.8%, the highest forecast, could support a December hike.

Canada's October Labour Force Survey comes out at 14:30 CET.

Economists expect employment to rise 15,000 after a 68,300 fall in September, with forecasts from a 10,000 fall to a 54,000 gain, and the unemployment rate to stay at 6.5%.

The economy shed 110,000 jobs in August and September, mostly in the public sector, in education and healthcare. Back-to-back losses of 100,000 or more have happened 13 times, one house notes, and 11 of them came in recessions or extreme shocks.

Wages of permanent employees are seen rising 2.1% y/y after 2.3%, and the participation rate at 64.9%.

Money markets price in a 47% chance of a 25-basis-point Bank of Canada hike on 9 December, from 2.50%.

Here is the current BoC market pricing as of 05-11-2026, 14:28 CET:

9 Dec: implied 2.63%, +12 bp priced, 47% probability of a hike
27 Jan: implied 2.76%, +25 bp priced, 51% probability of a hike
3 Mar: implied 2.86%, +35 bp priced, 42% probability of a hike
28 Apr: implied 3.01%, +50 bp priced, 61% probability of a hike

Changes are measured from today's effective rate of 2.53%. The policy rate is 2.50%.

Editor's Note: December hike pricing has already slipped below even odds. A third straight fall in employment would be rare outside a recession and could push it lower still. Most houses expect a modest rebound, and one sees unemployment rising to 6.6% as more people look for work.

Japan's September wage data come out at 00:30 CET.

Economists expect labour cash earnings, the total pay measure, to rise 3.8% y/y, the same as in August, with forecasts from 3.4% to 4.0%.

Real cash earnings are seen rising 1.3% y/y after 1.5%. Cash earnings for the same sample of firms are expected to rise 2.9% y/y, and scheduled full-time pay 3.0% y/y, both after 2.8%.

Houses expect base pay to stay firm as this year's wage rises spread across the workforce.

Money markets price in a 79% chance of a 25-basis-point Bank of Japan hike on 18 December, up from 1.25%.

Here is the current BoJ market pricing as of 05-11-2026, 14:28 CET:

18 Dec: implied 1.42%, +20 bp priced, 79% probability of a hike
22 Jan: implied 1.48%, +25 bp priced, 23% probability of a hike
18 Mar: implied 1.62%, +39 bp priced, 54% probability of a hike
28 Apr: implied 1.69%, +46 bp priced, 28% probability of a hike

Changes are measured from today's effective rate of 1.23%. The policy rate is 1.25%.

Editor's Note: One house moved its call for the next BoJ hike to December from January, but adds that the BoJ could wait if a December Fed hike looks less likely. That ties Japan's wages to the US jobs report later in the day.

Switzerland's SECO consumer confidence index for October is due at 09:00 CET.

Economists expect the index at -35.5 after -35.8, with forecasts from -37 to -33.

That is far below the long-run average of -15. Consumers' price expectations rose to 116 in September, and inflation reached 1.4% y/y in October.

We believe the SNB will take note of rising price expectations.

Money markets price in a 12% chance of an SNB hike on 10 December, from 0% policy rate.

Here is the current SNB market pricing as of 05-11-2026, 14:28 CET:

10 Dec: implied -0.02%, +3 bp priced, 12% probability of a hike
18 Mar: implied 0.09%, +14 bp priced, 45% probability of a hike
24 Jun: implied 0.24%, +28 bp priced, 57% probability of a hike
23 Sep: implied 0.34%, +38 bp priced, 40% probability of a hike

Changes are measured from the policy rate of 0.00%.

Editor's Note: Price expectations could be the more telling part of the survey. A further rise would sit uneasily with the SNB's view of low, stable inflation, which Petra Tschudin could be asked about in Frankfurt at 12:00 CET.

Central bank speech previews

Lorie Logan (hawk, Fed, 01:00 CET)

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, a voter this year, moderates a discussion at 01:00 CET, Thursday evening in Dallas, with no text expected. On 30 October, she called inflation "unacceptable" and said the FOMC "needs to implement at least two more 25-basis-point rate increases".

John Williams (neutral, Fed, 10:30 CET)

New York Fed President John Williams joins ECB chief economist Philip Lane in a fireside chat at the ECB's money markets conference in Frankfurt at 10:30 CET, with no text. On 29 September, he said inflation was well above target, but "there is no need for urgency, and we have time to gather more information".

Philip R. Lane (ECB, 10:30 CET)

Lane's latest speech, in San Francisco on 30 October, was about artificial intelligence. He said AI-related price increases "have contributed materially to the upward shift in goods inflation", with a limited effect on headline inflation. The Frankfurt chat follows his panel in Zurich on Thursday.

Petra Tschudin (SNB, 12:00 CET)

SNB Governing Board member Petra Tschudin sits on a market panel at the same Frankfurt conference at 12:00 CET, with no text. In an August interview, she said Swiss inflation was low and stable, and that the SNB would cut below zero if needed to keep inflation in its 0-2% range.

Huw Pill (hawk, BoE, 13:15 CET)

BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill and Fergal Shortall give the National MPC Agency briefing online at 13:15 CET, after the BoE's 8-1 vote to raise Bank Rate to 4.00% from 3.75%. Pill voted with the majority and wrote in the minutes that "a single 25-basis point hike is unlikely to be sufficient". Catherine Mann wanted a half-point move.

Alberto Musalem (leans hawkish, Fed, 15:10 CET)

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, not a voter this year, speaks at Greater St. Louis, Inc. at 15:10 CET, 40 minutes after the jobs report. On 30 October, he said "additional firming of monetary policy will be necessary, and soon".

Michelle Bowman (leans hawkish, Fed, 18:15 CET)

Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman takes part in a fireside chat at a banking symposium at the University of Mississippi at 18:15 CET, with no text. On 14 October, she said she did not feel "any urgency for taking further action at this point", Reuters reported.

Kazuo Ueda (neutral, BoJ, Washington, time not published)

BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda gives the IMF's Michel Camdessus Central Banking Lecture in Washington, followed by a conversation with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva. In October, he said underlying inflation was approaching 2% and that the BoJ would keep raising its rate in line with the economy, prices and financial conditions.

Also on the calendar

00:50 CET · Japan · Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (previous -¥92.6b)
00:50 CET · Japan · Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (previous ¥288.1b)
00:50 CET · Japan · Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (previous ¥43.3b)
00:50 CET · Japan · Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (previous ¥1180.9b)
06:00 CET · Sweden · Swedish Housing Price Data From Maklarstatistik
06:30 CET · Australia · Foreign Reserves (previous A$109.7b)
08:00 CET · Sweden · Budget Balance (previous -23.0b)
08:00 CET · Germany · Industrial Production SA MoM (consensus -0.1%, previous 2.0%)
08:00 CET · Germany · Industrial Production WDA YoY (consensus 1.2%, previous 2.3%)
08:00 CET · Norway · Industrial Production MoM (previous 1.0%)
08:00 CET · Norway · Industrial Production WDA YoY (previous -0.6%)
08:00 CET · Norway · Ind Prod Manufacturing MoM (previous -0.4%)
08:00 CET · Norway · Ind Prod Manufacturing WDA YoY (previous 0.4%)
09:00 CET · Switzerland · Foreign Currency Reserves (previous 770.5b)
10:30 CET · United States · Fed's Williams Participates on Moderated Discussion
11:00 CET · Euro Area · Retail Sales MoM (consensus -0.1%, previous 0.1%)
11:00 CET · Euro Area · Retail Sales YoY (consensus 0.6%, previous 0.8%)
13:15 CET · United Kingdom · BOE's Pill Gives Post-MPC Decision Briefing
16:00 CET · Canada · Ivey Purchasing Managers Index SA (previous 58.2)
18:15 CET · United States · Fed's Bowman in Moderated Conversation
21:00 CET · United States · Consumer Credit (consensus $13.500b, previous $8.281b)