Anthropic IPO Revives AI Trade as Meta Enlarges Its Share Sale
Tuesday, 27 October 2026 — Global stocks extended gains after Anthropic's IPO filing revived the AI trade.
Our five themes for the day:
First, the AI rebound now has to absorb a wave of new stock. Anthropic's filing shows first-half revenue of $16.3 billion and a net loss of $80.7 billion, and Meta is seeking as much as $97.5 billion in equity. Broadcom and SpaceX have arranged a further $63 billion and $40 billion of financing for chips. In our view, the IPO can revive demand for AI shares, but the new supply could cap the rally until Alphabet and Microsoft report on Wednesday and Amazon and Intel on Thursday.
Second, Japan's inflation is broadening before Friday's Bank of Japan meeting. Services producer prices rose 3.7% y/y in September from a downwardly revised 3.5%, with ocean freight up 97.7%, and UA Zensen will again seek a 6% pay rise for 2027. Markets price in 20 basis points of BoJ tightening by December. In our view, that probability should rise to 25 basis points.
Third, the US job market as consumers see it. The share of Americans saying jobs are hard to get minus those saying jobs are plentiful rose to -1.7 points in September, the highest since February 2021, according to the Conference Board. Economists expect its confidence index to slip to 81 from 81.9. In our view, a further rise in that gap the day before the Fed decides could test the 78% odds of a December hike. The gauge has lagged job gains for much of the year, though, and unemployment has held at 4.1% to 4.3%.
Fourth, US business investment. Durable goods orders are expected to rise 1.9% m/m in September after a 0.1% decline in August, lifted by 155 Boeing orders, so the 0.6% gain expected outside transportation is the cleaner signal. The Empire State index jumped to 25.5 in October from 7.6, against 12.0 expected, and S&P Global's flash manufacturing index rose to 56.0 from 55.9, while the Philadelphia Fed's fell to 20.9 from 37.8. Today's Richmond Fed index is expected to recover to 0 from -2, and the ISM manufacturing index follows on 2 November. Firm orders would support the view that factories entered the fourth quarter with momentum. Also worth watching is the prices paid component.
Last but not least, euro area credit. The ECB publishes its bank lending survey today, two days before it decides. In July, banks had tightened standards for loans to firms by a net 7% and expected a further 5%. A sharper tightening would mean higher rates reach lending and, in our view, could cool the 85% chance of a December hike priced into interest rate futures.
Chart of the day
Japan's services producer prices against core inflation, year on year
In brief
Anthropic filed for an IPO on the Nasdaq, reviving the AI trade, and chip stocks led Asian equities higher in Korea and Japan.
Meta enlarged its common-stock sale, and Broadcom and SpaceX lined up more financing for AI chips.
Japan's services producer prices accelerated before Friday's Bank of Japan meeting, and former Governor Kuroda backs further rate hikes.
Brazilian markets fell sharply after President Lula's surprise re-election, and Flávio Bolsonaro dropped his challenge to the result.
Oil fell as security chiefs from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan held talks in Tehran to stop the war from restarting, and Israelis vote today.
South Korea's economy grew faster than expected in the third quarter as the AI chip boom lifted exports.
Today's Macro Roadmap: The ECB publishes its bank lending survey at 10:00 CET, US durable goods orders are out at 13:30 CET, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index and US new home sales follow at 15:00 CET, the US Treasury sells five-year notes at 18:00 CET, and Coca-Cola reports before the US open and Visa after the close.
The full briefing
Global stocks extended gains after Anthropic's IPO filing revived the AI trade, and Wall Street snapped a two-day losing streak yesterday (BBG). The maker of Claude plans to list on the Nasdaq under the symbol ANT, and its filing shows a net loss of $80.7 billion on revenue of $16.3 billion in the first half (BBG). Meta raised its common-stock sale to $25 billion at $625 a share from $22.5 billion, part of an offering of as much as $97.5 billion (BBG). S&P 500 futures were little changed at 7,713, Dow Jones futures rose 0.2% to 52,650, and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.3% to 29,347. European shares were set for a weaker open, with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.3% at 6,115 (BBG).
Stocks
In stocks, Asian equities rose 0.9%, led by technology shares in South Korea and Japan, and SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics both rallied more than 4% ahead of their earnings this week (BBG). Nikkei 225 futures rose 2.0% to 63,470, Hang Seng futures fell 0.7% to 23,065, and CSI 300 futures fell 0.1% to 4,063. Broadcom arranged a $63 billion deal to finance chip purchases, and SpaceX signed an equipment lease of about $40 billion (BBG). The Bank of Korea told a lawmaker that chip exports could fall by $50 billion to $100 billion from earlier forecasts if US technology firms slow their AI spending next year (Reuters). Anthropic is expected to raise more money in its IPO than any company in history (BBG), and investors have told bankers they now see its fair value at around $1.4 trillion to $1.5 trillion, people familiar with the matter said (BBG). In Brazil, the real fell almost 8% and the Ibovespa about 14% on Monday after President Lula's surprise re-election, and some shares lost more than 50% (BBG).
The central banks
Regarding the central banks, the Bank of Japan is expected to hold its policy rate at 1.25% on Friday and declare that it has met its price target after a 14-year battle (Reuters). More than 80% of economists in a Bloomberg survey expect a hike in December (BBG). Former Governor Haruhiko Kuroda writes in a new book that the bank will likely consider a 25 basis point hike at each meeting (Reuters). However, his former deputy, Masazumi Wakatabe, who is close to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, warns that half of the price rises are driven by cost-push factors (Reuters). UA Zensen, one of Japan's largest union groups, will again seek a 6% pay rise for 2027, including 4% on base salaries, after securing 4.72% this year (BBG). In New Zealand, a majority of NZIER's Monetary Policy Shadow Board recommends a 25 basis point rise in the cash rate on Wednesday, citing higher energy prices and a weaker New Zealand dollar (Org).
The US
In the US, the Fed is in its blackout period before Wednesday's decision. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, a voter this year, has said the target range needs to rise another 50 basis points or more. New York Fed President John Williams said there is no need for urgency after September's hike (WSJ). Fitch says 46% of US consumer-price components had annual inflation above 3% in September, twice the 2018-2019 average, which could keep policy higher for longer (Fitch Ratings).
What's priced for central banks?
Currently, short-term interest rate (STIR) traders price a 10% probability of a Fed rate rise on Wednesday and 22 basis points of tightening by December. For the ECB, they price a 4% probability of a rate rise on Thursday and 22 basis points by December, for the BoJ a 1% probability of a rate rise on Friday and 20 basis points by December, and for the BoE a 97% probability of a rate rise in November and 36 basis points by December. They price a 94% probability of an RBNZ rate rise on Wednesday and 41 basis points by December, an 87% probability of a Bank of Canada rate rise the same day and 37 basis points by December, and a 60% probability of an RBA rate rise on 3 November and 19 basis points by December.
Currencies
In currencies, the dollar index rose 0.1% to 102.09. The yen weakened 0.2% to 157.80 per dollar. The euro eased 0.1% to 1.1167 dollars, and sterling eased 0.1% to 1.3333 dollars. The New Zealand dollar rose 0.2% to 0.5695 US dollars, and the Australian dollar rose 0.1% to 0.7022 US dollars. The yen's role as a funding currency for carry trades into Latin America held up, as the Chilean, Colombian and Mexican pesos gained against it even as Brazil's real slumped (BBG). In Japan, hackers demanded $50 million from the currency-trading platform GMO, and Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said the government will address the attack with urgency after five FX firms reported affected customers (BBG).
Bonds
In bonds, Treasuries edged up across the curve (BBG). The ten-year yield fell 1.9 basis points to 4.97%, the two-year fell 1.8 basis points to 4.70%, and the thirty-year fell 2.0 basis points to 5.28%. The ten-year yield fell more than 30 basis points in October and is set to snap a seven-month rise (BBG). Japan's ten-year yield fell 0.8 basis points to 2.79%. In China, the five-year yield briefly touched 1.34%, heading for its lowest close on record, after the central bank injected a net 1.01 trillion yuan ($151 billion) through reverse repurchases, the largest daily net injection on record (BBG).
Commodities
In commodities, Brent fell 0.5% to $115.23 a barrel, and WTI fell 0.6% to $101.18 as Middle Eastern mediators sought to revive talks between Washington and Tehran (WSJ). Gold fell 0.4% to $4,003 an ounce, and copper rose 0.3%. Bitcoin fell 0.1% to $79,623, and Ether rose 0.1% to $2,305.
Geopolitics
In geopolitics, Israelis vote today in an election that decides whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stays in power, with polls showing a close race against an alliance led by former army chief Gadi Eisenkot (Reuters). Netanyahu pushed for weeks for a new strike on Iran before the vote but met resistance from the military's chief of staff, Israeli officials say (NYT). Security chiefs from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan met in Tehran to prevent the war from restarting, and Mohsen Rezaei, head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, called the talks very good (SCMP). In the US, President Trump's approval rose a point to 32% a week before the 3 November midterms, and Democrats lead the generic ballot by 47% to 36% (Reuters). The average US gasoline price under Trump has overtaken the Biden-era average, according to AAA data (BBG), and a study finds US consumers have paid an average of $471 more for fuel since the war with Iran began (Reuters). Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said trade talks with the US have gained some momentum, but only because Washington has moved closer to Canada's position (BBG). In Brazil, Flávio Bolsonaro dropped his challenge to the election result, and his party conceded defeat to President Lula (Straitstimes).
Corporate news
In corporate news, HSBC's shares fell more than 6% in Hong Kong after its third-quarter pretax profit rose 32% to $9.6 billion, short of the $9.7 billion estimate (BBG). The bank also set a $1 billion buyback (BBG). Customers say the foldable display of Apple's iPhone Duo cracked after hours or days of use (BBG), and Apple says it will replace the affected units (Reuters). Microsoft will offer buyouts to about 60,000 workers (BBG).
Research trade ideas
JPMorgan Asset Management's Bob Michele says US government bonds could return around 7% to 8% over the next 12 months, and he sees the most value at the long end of the Treasury curve (BBG).
Data and the day ahead
Data and the day ahead: Japan's services producer prices rose 3.7% y/y in September, in line with consensus and up from a downwardly revised 3.5% in August (BBG). Ocean freight costs rose 97.7%, the most in data going back to 1986 (BBG). UK shop price inflation rose to 2.1% y/y in October from 1.4%, above the 1.6% consensus (BRC), and China's industrial profits rose 14.4% y/y in September after 4.2% in August (BBG). South Korea's economy grew 1.0% q/q in the third quarter, beating the 0.7% economists expected, after 0.6% in the second, as the AI chip boom lifted exports and investment (Reuters). Still to come: the ECB publishes its bank lending survey at 10:00 CET, two days before its decision, alongside euro-area M3 money supply, with consensus at 3.4% y/y from 3.5%. US durable goods orders follow at 13:30 CET, with consensus at 1.9% m/m from -0.1%, and at 0.6% from 0.2% excluding transportation. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index is due at 15:00 CET, with consensus at 81 from 81.9 (you can find our preview here). The Richmond Fed's manufacturing index and new home sales are out at the same time, with consensus at 0 from -2 and at 651k from 684k. The US Treasury sells $70 billion of five-year notes at 18:00 CET, Coca-Cola reports before the US open and Visa after the close, and polls close in Israel's election at 21:00 CET (Reuters). This week, Australia publishes third-quarter inflation data, and the RBNZ decides early on Wednesday. UK Chancellor John Healey presents his budget at 13:30 CET on Wednesday, in which he is set to raise the national living wage by about 4% (BBG). The Bank of Canada decides at 14:45 CET and the Fed at 19:00 CET the same day. The ECB decides on Thursday and the BoJ on Friday (Reuters), and Alphabet and Microsoft report on Wednesday, followed by Amazon and Intel on Thursday (BBG).
Time Stamp: 27 October 2026, 07:26 CET
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Tags: Anthropic IPO filing, Meta share sale, Japan services producer prices, BoJ December hike, Brazil Lula re-election, Fed decision Wednesday, US durable goods orders, Conference Board consumer confidence