Tomorrow's Macro Roadmap: FOMC Meeting in Focus Alongside Australian CPI, BOC and RBNZ Rate Decisions
Wednesday, 28 October 2026 — Australia's third-quarter inflation data land at 01:30 CET, while the Reserve Bank of Australia's senior officials face a Senate committee.
Our three themes:
Overnight, Australia's inflation data could decide whether the RBA raises rates again next week. Prices are expected to rise 1.2% q/q in the third quarter, up from 0.6%, and the trimmed mean 1.0% q/q, up from 0.8%. Swap traders price in a 61% chance of a rise on 3 November. The data land while the RBA's senior officials sit before a Senate committee, so a firm trimmed mean could be discussed within minutes. Analysts' forecasts of 0.9%, though, would leave a hold in play.
Central banks are expected to raise rates, and Canada's is the closer call for its currency. New Zealand's decision is at 02:00 CET, with a quarter-point rise to 3.00% priced in with a 94% probability, so the vote and guidance matter more than the move. In Canada, the survey among economists is split, yet traders price in an 80% chance of a rise after Governor Tiff Macklem signalled a higher inflation forecast. A hold at 14:45 CET should weaken the Canadian dollar.
Finally, the Fed is expected to hold, and its December guidance matters most for two-year yields (if any; note that Warsh strongly opposes forward guidance). Economists see the range staying at 3.75-4.00% at 19:00 CET, and traders price in an 81% chance of a December increase. Dissenting views from Beth Hammack and Lorie Logan would show how divided the committee is. Chair Kevin Warsh will likely avoid forward guidance, so the statement's wording on further adjustments will be the main signal.
Chart of the day: Australia's trimmed-mean inflation
In brief
01:30 CET · AU CPI QoQ (3Q): consensus 1.2%, previous 0.6%
01:30 CET · AU CPI YoY (Sep): consensus 4.2%, previous 4.0%
01:30 CET · AU CPI Trimmed Mean QoQ (3Q): consensus 1.0%, previous 0.8%
01:30 CET · AU CPI Trimmed Mean YoY (3Q): consensus 3.6%, previous 3.6%
01:30 CET · AU CPI Trimmed Mean YoY (Sep): consensus 3.6%, previous 3.6%
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand announces its decision with its Monetary Policy Review at 02:00 CET, and Governor Anna Breman holds a news conference at 03:00 CET: consensus 3.00%
The Bank of Canada announces its decision and publishes its Monetary Policy Report at 14:45 CET, and Governor Tiff Macklem holds a news conference at 15:30 CET: consensus 2.25%
The Federal Reserve announces its decision at 19:00 CET, and Chair Kevin Warsh holds a news conference at 19:30 CET: consensus 4.00%
Scenarios
Australia: CPI (3Q) and trimmed mean (01:30 CET, High impact): Trimmed mean 1.0% q/q expected. 1.0% or more supports a 3 November RBA rise (61% priced) and the Australian dollar; 0.9% or less leaves a hold in play.
New Zealand: RBNZ decision (02:00 CET, High impact): A rise to 3.00% is expected and 94% priced. A hold or a split vote could weaken the New Zealand dollar; guidance that keeps December open is priced.
Canada: Bank of Canada decision (14:45 CET, High impact): Analysts are split, while the STIR market is pricing in an 80% chance of an increase to 2.50%. A hold could weaken the Canadian dollar. A higher inflation forecast with open guidance would support further pricing in of rate increases.
United States: FOMC decision (19:00 CET, High impact): A hold at 3.75-4.00% expected (9.4% priced for a rise). Dissents and open guidance match the 81% December pricing; a rise or a closed door for December would move two-year yields.
Speakers
Scheduled speakers: Michele Bullock (Reserve Bank of Australia, 01:15 CET).
The full preview
Data release previews
Australia releases third-quarter and September consumer price index (CPI) figures at 01:30 CET.
Economists expect the CPI to rise 1.2% q/q after 0.6% in the second quarter. The trimmed mean, the RBA's preferred core measure, is expected to rise 1.0% q/q after 0.8%, holding at 3.6% y/y.
For September alone, the CPI is expected to rise 0.7% m/m after 0.4%, lifting the annual CPI rate to 4.2% y/y from 4.0%. The monthly trimmed mean is seen rising 0.3% m/m and holding at 3.6% y/y.
Fuel, holiday travel and property rates drive the September month, one research house says, with automotive fuel up 9.0% m/m. Domestic and international travel could also push prices higher. Another analyst sees housing, more than 22% of the basket, rising just above 1% in the quarter as building-cost pass-through slows.
Economists see the quarterly trimmed mean rising between 0.9% q/q and 1.0% q/q, and one puts the risks to its 0.95% call to the upside. The RBA raised its cash rate to 4.60% on 29 September, its fourth increase this year. Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said on 21 October that the inflation outlook was "materially worse" than the RBA's August forecasts.
Those August forecasts had the trimmed mean slowing to 3.3% y/y by December and headline inflation to 3.6%, with Brent crude assumed at about 81 dollars a barrel. A trimmed mean holding at 3.6% y/y in the third quarter would leave the RBA behind its own path.
Bloomberg survey: median 1.2%, range 0.6% to 1.4% (as of 27-10-2026).
RBA market pricing as of 27-10-2026, 17:22 CET:
3 Nov: implied 4.75%, +15 bp priced, 61% (hike) probability of a move
8 Dec: implied 4.79%, +19 bp priced, 16% (hike) probability of a move
9 Feb: implied 4.86%, +26 bp priced, 27% (hike) probability of a move
23 Mar: implied 4.88%, +28 bp priced, 9% (hike) probability of a move
15 basis points priced for 3 Nov, a 61% probability of a 25 basis point rise, and 19 basis points cumulatively by 8 Dec.
Changes are measured from today's effective rate of 4.60%. The policy rate is 4.60%.
Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, Statement on Monetary Policy, August 2026, Table 3.1: Detailed Forecast Table, https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2026/aug/outlook.html
Editor's Note: Swap traders price in a 61% chance that the RBA raises its rate to 4.85% on 3 November. In the CPI data, a trimmed mean of 1.0% or more would strengthen the case for a fifth increase this year. A reading of 0.9% or less would leave the decision more open. The data land while the RBA's officials are answering questions in the Senate, so their first reaction may be heard live.
Central banks
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand announces its decision with its Monetary Policy Review at 02:00 CET, and Governor Anna Breman holds a news conference at 03:00 CET.
Economists expect a quarter-point rise in the official cash rate to 3.00% from 2.75%, the third increase since July.
Annual inflation slowed to 3.7% in the third quarter, below the central bank's forecast. Core measures, however, rose to around 3%, the top of the 1% to 3% target band, one research house notes.
In September, the bank forecast annual inflation of 3.9% for the third quarter and non-tradables inflation of 3.6%; the prints came in at 3.7% and 3.3%. The same projections had the cash rate averaging 2.81% in the fourth quarter, so a rise to 3.00% now follows the bank's own path, which reaches 3.15% by the end of 2027.
Another house says Brent crude trades nearly 30% above the bank's September assumption and the New Zealand dollar about 3% below its forecast, both adding to price pressure. The review brings no new projections.
Of the 25 economists in Bloomberg's survey, 23 expect a rise to 3.00% and two a hold at 2.75%, and every research house we read calls for a rise. Their forecasts for the peak run from 3.25% to 4.0%, and one sees a split vote as quite possible.
Bloomberg survey: median 3.00%, range 2.75% to 3.00% (as of 27-10-2026).
RBNZ market pricing as of 27-10-2026, 17:22 CET:
28 Oct: implied 2.98%, +24 bp priced, 94% (hike) probability of a move
9 Dec: implied 3.16%, +41 bp priced, 72% (hike) probability of a move
10 Feb: implied 3.33%, +58 bp priced, 66% (hike) probability of a move
17 Mar: implied 3.49%, +74 bp priced, 64% (hike) probability of a move
24 basis points priced for 28 Oct, a 94% probability of a 25 basis point rise, and 41 basis points cumulatively by 9 Dec.
Changes are measured from today's effective rate of 2.75%.
Source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Monetary Policy Statement September 2026, Projections (data pack), https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statements/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026
Editor's Note: With 94% priced for a rise in the RBNZ's official cash rate, the reaction rests on the guidance and the vote. Traders price in 41 basis points by December, so a statement that keeps another rise open would match the market. A split vote or a hold could weaken the New Zealand dollar.
The Bank of Canada announces its decision and publishes its Monetary Policy Report at 14:45 CET, and Governor Tiff Macklem holds a news conference at 15:30 CET.
Bloomberg's survey of 35 economists is split: 18 expect a hold at 2.25% and 17 a quarter-point rise to 2.50%, a median of 2.25% and an average of 2.37%. Of the 23 forecasts updated since 19 October, 15 expect a rise.
In July, the bank forecast CPI inflation of 2.5% y/y in the third quarter and 2.4% at the end of 2026. Headline inflation has since run at 3.1%, one research house notes, so the October report's forecast is likely to rise.
A rise would be the first since July 2023. Macklem said at the IMF meetings this month that the new inflation forecast would be "quite a bit higher" than July's. Market odds of a rise then jumped to over 80% from 36%, one research house notes.
The bank's surveys showed consumers' five-year inflation expectations rising to 3.9% from 3.4%, and about half of firms plan to pass on higher costs. Core inflation has stayed near 2%, and unemployment is 6.5%.
Most houses we read expect a rise, while a minority expects a hold because jobs were lost and core inflation is tame. One of the houses that expects a rise calls it a possible policy error.
Bloomberg survey: median 2.25%, range 2.25% to 2.50% (as of 27-10-2026).
BoC market pricing as of 27-10-2026, 17:22 CET:
28 Oct: implied 2.44%, +20 bp priced, 80% (hike) probability of a move
9 Dec: implied 2.60%, +36 bp priced, 64% (hike) probability of a move
27 Jan: implied 2.76%, +52 bp priced, 62% (hike) probability of a move
3 Mar: implied 2.90%, +66 bp priced, 56% (hike) probability of a move
20 basis points priced for 28 Oct, an 80% probability of a 25 basis point rise, and 36 basis points cumulatively by 9 Dec.
Changes are measured from today's effective rate of 2.24%. The policy rate is 2.25%.
Source: Bank of Canada, Monetary Policy Report, July 2026, Table 3, p. 38, https://www.bankofcanada.ca/publications/mpr/mpr-2026-07-15/
Editor's Note: With 80% priced for a rise, a hold at the Bank of Canada's rate decision would be the surprise and could weaken the Canadian dollar. After a rise, the focus moves to the report's inflation forecast and to whether the statement keeps further increases open, as traders price in another 16 basis points by December.
The Federal Reserve announces its decision at 19:00 CET, and Chair Kevin Warsh holds a news conference at 19:30 CET.
Economists expect the target range to stay at 3.75-4.00% after September's quarter-point rise, with an upper bound of 4.00%.
In September, officials' median projections put core PCE inflation at 3.4% at the end of 2026, falling to 2.5% in 2027, with growth of 2.3% and unemployment at 4.1%. The median funds rate of 4.1% for year-end sits one quarter point above today's range midpoint.
The meeting brings no new projections, so the statement and Warsh's answers carry the signal. Research houses expect two or three dissents in favour of a rise, from Cleveland's Beth Hammack and Dallas's Lorie Logan, with Minneapolis's Neel Kashkari a possible third.
One house reads the Fed's comments since September as a compromise to raise rates at every other meeting, which points to December. The statement may borrow Vice Chair Philip Jefferson's line that further adjustments "will depend on trends in the data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks".
Swap traders price in a 9.4% chance of a rise on Wednesday. Of the 92 economists in Bloomberg's survey, 86 expect a hold and six a rise to 4.25%. Two of the houses we read argue that the data warrant a rise, and one of them forecasts it. September's PCE inflation and the third-quarter growth estimate follow on Thursday.
Bloomberg survey: median 4.00%, range 4.00% to 4.25% (as of 27-10-2026).
Fed market pricing as of 27-10-2026, 17:22 CET:
28 Oct: implied 3.90%, +2 bp priced, 9% (hike) probability of a move
9 Dec: implied 4.11%, +23 bp priced, 81% (hike) probability of a move
27 Jan: implied 4.21%, +33 bp priced, 41% (hike) probability of a move
17 Mar: implied 4.38%, +50 bp priced, 67% (hike) probability of a move
2 basis points priced for 28 Oct, a 9% probability of a 25 basis point rise, and 23 basis points cumulatively by 9 Dec.
Changes are measured from today's effective rate of 3.88%. The target range is 3.75-4.00%.
Source: Federal Reserve, Summary of Economic Projections, 16 September 2026, Table 1, https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260916.htm
Editor's Note: Beyond the FOMC rate decision itself, traders price in 23 basis points by 9 December, an 81% chance of a rise then. A hold with dissents and a statement that keeps a rise open would match that pricing. A rise on Wednesday, or guidance that rules out December, would move two-year Treasury yields the most. Microsoft and Alphabet report about two hours later.
Also on the calendar
01:15 CET · Australia · RBA testimony before Parliament
02:00 CET · New Zealand · RBNZ Monetary Policy Review
03:00 CET · New Zealand · RBNZ Governor hosts news conference
08:00 CET · Norway · Credit Indicator Growth YoY (previous 4.5%)
08:00 CET · Norway · Retail Sales W/Auto Fuel MoM (previous 0.6%)
08:00 CET · Germany · GfK Consumer Confidence (consensus -30.3, previous -30.6)
10:00 CET · Switzerland · UBS Survey Expectations (previous 2.6)
12:00 CET · United States · MBA Mortgage Applications (previous -5.3%)
13:30 CET · United States · Advance Goods Trade Balance (consensus -$130.2b, previous -$132.6b)
13:30 CET · United States · Advance Goods Imports MoM SA (consensus 2.6%, previous 5.5%)
13:30 CET · United States · Advance Goods Exports MoM SA (consensus 1.3%, previous 1.9%)
13:30 CET · United States · Retail Inventories MoM (consensus 0.3%, previous 0.3%)
13:30 CET · United Kingdom · UK Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey Presents Budget
13:30 CET · United States · Wholesale Inventories MoM (consensus 0.5%, previous 0.5%)
14:20 CET · Euro Area · ECB's Lane Speaks in Berlin
15:30 CET · United States · DOE Total Fuel Ethanol Inventory (previous 24558k)
15:30 CET · United States · DOE Fuel Ethanol Total Production (previous 1094k)
15:30 CET · United States · DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (consensus -340k, previous -3060k)
15:30 CET · United States · DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (previous 987k)
15:30 CET · United States · DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (consensus -310k, previous -2952k)
15:30 CET · United States · DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (consensus -1240k, previous 1675k)
15:30 CET · United States · DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization (consensus 0.0%, previous -0.1%)
15:30 CET · United States · DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand (previous 19464)
15:30 CET · United States · DOE Gasoline Implied Demand (previous 9908.4)
15:30 CET · United States · DOE Distillate Implied Demand (previous 5109.7)
16:30 CET · United States · 2Y FRN Discount Margin (previous 0.04%)
19:00 CET · United States · FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) (consensus 3.75%, previous 3.75%)
19:00 CET · United States · Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate (consensus 3.9%, previous 3.9%)
Central bank speech previews
Michele Bullock (Reserve Bank of Australia, 01:15 CET)
RBA Governor Michele Bullock and the bank's senior policy officials appear by videoconference before the Senate Economics Legislation Committee's supplementary budget estimates at 01:15 CET. That is 11:15 in Sydney, 15 minutes before the inflation data. After the 29 September rise to 4.60%, Bullock said inflation "is too high and has been driven by domestic capacity pressures". She added that the board "will increase interest rates again if that's what's needed to get inflation down". Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter said in a television interview recorded on 21 October that the RBA had not done enough "quite yet", and expected the oil shock to feed further into prices. Bullock's speech on 23 October was a university graduation address without comment on policy.
Today's Briefing: Anthropic IPO Revives AI Trade as Meta Enlarges Its Share Sale — https://ggma-app.com/public-article/anthropic-ipo-revives-ai-trade-as-meta-enlarges-its-share-sale-218
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Tags: FOMC October 2026, Fed decision 28 October 2026, Bank of Canada rate decision October 2026, RBNZ OCR decision October 2026, Australia CPI third quarter 2026, RBA November rate hike, Kevin Warsh press conference, economic calendar 28 October 2026