Riksbank, Euro-Area Inflation, ISM and ADP: GGMA Day Ahead
Wednesday, 4 November 2026 — The Riksbank is expected to hike for the first time since 2023, and euro-area inflation is seen rising to 4.0%. US ISM and ADP follow in the European afternoon session.
Our three themes:
Economists expect Sweden's Riksbank to lift its policy rate to 2.00% at 09:30 CET, its first hike since 2023, and its guidance for December could move the krona. Several houses expect the bank to stand by its September path, which points to one more hike in early 2027.
Annual euro-area inflation is expected to rise to 4.0% from 3.8% at 11:00 CET, above the ECB's projected peak of 3.6%, with money markets pricing in an 87% chance of a December hike. To be sure, core inflation is seen steady at 2.5%, and the ECB says underlying inflation has remained broadly stable.
In the US, ADP payrolls at 14:15 CET and the ISM services survey at 16:00 CET test the 77% chance of a Fed hike in December. Prices paid are expected to rise to 75 from 74 in September, already a four-year high. These reports follow a strong JOLTS report on Tuesday.
Chart of the day: annual euro-area inflation expected to rise to 4.0% from 3.8%
In brief
11:00 CET · EC CPI YoY (Oct P): consensus 4.0%, previous 3.8%
11:00 CET · EC CPI MoM (Oct P): consensus 0.4%, previous 0.6%
11:00 CET · EC CPI Estimate YoY (Oct P): consensus 4.0%, previous 3.8%
11:00 CET · EC CPI Core YoY (Oct P): consensus 2.5%, previous 2.5%
14:15 CET · US ADP Employment Change (Oct): consensus 66k, previous 90k
16:00 CET · US ISM Services Index (Oct): consensus 54.8, previous 54.9
Scenarios
Sweden: Riksbank decision (09:30 CET, High impact): A hike to 2.00% is expected, with no forecast outside it. A signal of a December follow-up could lift Swedish yields and the krona. A hold would surprise every forecaster surveyed.
Euro area: flash inflation (Oct) (11:00 CET, High impact): 4.0% expected, core 2.5%. Core at 2.6% would firm the 87% chance of a December ECB hike. A headline reading of 3.7% would weigh on it.
US: ADP private payrolls (Oct) (14:15 CET, Medium impact): 66,000 expected. A reading near 122,000 would support December Fed pricing (77%). One near 58,000 would weigh on it before Friday's payrolls.
US: ISM services (Oct) (16:00 CET, Medium impact): 54.8 expected. Prices paid at 76 would firm December Fed pricing (77%). A headline near 53 would weigh on it.
ECB: Lane and Moulin (14:20 and 19:45 CET, Low impact): Lane speaks about three hours after the inflation data. A comment on the print could move December ECB pricing.
The full preview
Data release previews
October's flash consumer price index (CPI) for the euro area comes out at 11:00 CET.
Economists expect annual inflation to rise to 4.0% from 3.8%, with forecasts from 3.7% to 4.1%, and core inflation to hold at 2.5%.
Economists see prices up 0.4% on the month, after 0.6% in September. Energy prices were 18.9% higher than a year earlier in September, and services prices were 3.2%.
Drilling down, inflation fell to 2.8% in Germany, but rose to 3.8% in France, 5.2% in Belgium and 5.6% in Italy. The large heterogeneity in October first reflects various energy price dynamics, one house notes. Germany cut fuel taxes. Energy tax cuts also took place in Spain. In Italy, the statistics office mentioned a jump in regulated energy prices (i.e. gas and/or electricity prices).
For core inflation, heterogeneity is also visible in October, the same house notes. Core inflation declined in Germany, driven by both services and core goods price inflation. Belgium's core inflation (which includes processed food) also fell, driven by services. In the other countries, core inflation increased.
A reading of 4.0% would be above the ECB's September projection, which has inflation peaking at 3.6% in the fourth quarter.
The ECB kept its deposit rate at 2.50% on 29 October, after hikes in June and September. Governing Council member Peter Kazimir said on Monday that markets "may still underestimate what is required".
Here is the current ECB market pricing as of 03-11-2026, 17:45 CET:
17 Dec: implied 2.66%, +22 bp priced, 87% probability of a hike
4 Feb: implied 2.73%, +28 bp priced, 27% probability of a hike
18 Mar: implied 2.86%, +42 bp priced, 54% probability of a hike
29 Apr: implied 2.90%, +46 bp priced, 17% probability of a hike
Changes are measured from today's effective rate of 2.44%. The policy rate is 2.50%.
Editor's Note: Money markets price in an 87% chance of an ECB hike in December. Core inflation matters more than the headline, because the ECB said underlying inflation "has remained broadly stable so far". A core reading of 2.6% would probably lift short-dated yields in the euro area.
ADP's estimate of US private payrolls for October comes out at 14:15 CET.
Economists expect 66,000 jobs, down from 90,000 in September, with forecasts from 58,000 to 122,000.
The official count showed 46,000 private jobs in September, below ADP's figure. ADP's four-week sum eased to 67,000 in the week to 10 October, the week ahead of the payroll survey week, one house notes.
Forecasters expect Friday's official report to show job growth more than doubling, with unemployment steady at 4.2%. The Fed held its range at 3.75% to 4% on 28 October in a 10-2 vote, the two dissenters favouring a hike.
Editor's Note: ADP has tracked the official count loosely, so only a reading near the edges of the forecast range would change the picture before Friday, in our view.
The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) services survey for October follows at 16:00 CET.
Economists expect the index to edge down to 54.8 from 54.9, with forecasts from 53.0 to 56.3.
Prices paid are expected to rise to 75 from 74 (we think they could decline), new orders to ease to 58.5 from 59.8, and employment to hold near 50.
One house expects September's strong new orders to partly unwind and prices paid to ease only slightly from a four-year high. Another sees the index rising to 55.5.
Here is the current Fed market pricing as of 03-11-2026, 17:45 CET:
9 Dec: implied 4.07%, +19 bp priced, 77% probability of a hike
27 Jan: implied 4.14%, +26 bp priced, 26% probability of a hike
17 Mar: implied 4.28%, +40 bp priced, 57% probability of a hike
28 Apr: implied 4.34%, +46 bp priced, 26% probability of a hike
Changes are measured from today's effective rate of 3.88%. The target range is 3.75-4.00%.
Editor's Note: Money markets price in a 77% chance of a Fed hike in December, so the prices-paid index is the part to watch. A reading of 76, the top of forecasts, would probably firm that pricing and lift short-dated Treasury yields.
Central banks
Sweden's Riksbank announces its decision at 09:30 CET with a Monetary Policy Update, and holds a press conference at 11:00 CET.
Economists expect a 25-basis-point hike to 2.00% from 1.75%, with no forecast outside 2.00%.
It would be the first rise since 2023. On 24 September the bank held at 1.75% and said that, if the outlook held, "the increases in the policy rate will begin this year".
Money markets price in a 93% chance of the move and a 40% chance of a second hike in December. One house sees a closer call than pricing implies.
September's minutes showed two of the five board members in favour of a November hike, while the other three were undecided. Governor Erik Thedéen preferred November, one house notes.
The bank's target measure, consumer prices with a fixed interest rate (CPIF), was 1.5% higher than a year earlier in September, or 0.5% excluding energy. The bank estimates that fiscal measures subtract about 1.5 percentage points from the headline rate, one house notes.
Output rose at a 1.6% annualised rate in the third quarter after 6.4% in the second, and was 3.0% higher than a year earlier.
The bank's own path has the policy rate averaging 1.85% in the fourth quarter and 2.38% by the third quarter of 2027, so a hike on Wednesday would follow it. October's CPIF flash, expected at 1.4%, comes on Thursday.
Here is the current Riksbank market pricing as of 03-11-2026, 17:45 CET:
4 Nov: implied 1.98%, +23 bp priced, 93% probability of a hike
16 Dec: implied 2.08%, +33 bp priced, 40% probability of a hike
3 Feb: implied 2.18%, +44 bp priced, 42% probability of a hike
Changes are measured from the policy rate of 1.75%.
Source: Sveriges Riksbank, Monetary Policy Report, September 2026, Tables 4 to 7 (pp. 69-70), https://www.riksbank.se/globalassets/media/rapporter/ppr/penningpolitiska-rapporter-och-uppdateringar/engelska/2026/monetary-policy-report-september-2026.pdf
Editor's Note: The hike looks settled, so the guidance matters more. Several houses expect the bank to stand by its September path, with one more hike in early 2027. A hint of a second move in December would probably lift Swedish yields and the krona.
Central bank speech previews
Philip Lane (Lean dove, ECB, 14:20 CET)
ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane delivers a laudation for Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, winner of the Bernhard Harms Prize, at the Kiel-CEPR Geoeconomics Conference in Berlin at 14:20 CET. In San Francisco on 30 October, he said AI adoption "will be a key determinant of European productivity growth". AI-related price rises have lifted goods inflation, he said, but their effect on headline inflation is limited. A laudation is rarely a policy speech, but he speaks about three hours after the inflation data.
Emmanuel Moulin (Lean dove, Banque de France, 19:45 CET)
Bank of France Governor Emmanuel Moulin speaks in Paris at 19:45 CET. In an interview with La Montagne published on 30 October, he said that with inflation mostly imported, the ECB was taking a measured approach. Outside energy and fresh food, prices remained relatively stable, he said, and the ECB would act on the data at its coming meetings.
Also on the calendar
00:50 CET · Japan · Monetary Base YoY (previous -15.2%)
00:50 CET · Japan · Monetary Base End of period (previous ¥535.4t)
01:00 CET · New Zealand · ANZ Commodity Price MoM (previous 0.6%)
01:30 CET · Australia · Household Spending YoY (previous 6.8%)
01:30 CET · Australia · Household Spending MoM (consensus 0.2%, previous 0.0%)
02:45 CET · China · RatingDog China PMI Composite (previous 52.4)
02:45 CET · China · RatingDog China PMI Services (consensus 51.7, previous 51.6)
08:30 CET · Sweden · Swedbank/Silf PMI Services (previous 57.4)
08:30 CET · Sweden · Swedbank/Silf PMI Composite (previous 57.6)
09:55 CET · Germany · S&P Global Germany Services PMI (consensus 51.7, previous 51.7)
09:55 CET · Germany · S&P Global Germany Composite PMI (consensus 52.8, previous 52.8)
10:00 CET · Euro Area · ECB Wage Tracker
10:00 CET · Euro Area · S&P Global Eurozone Services PMI (consensus 51.7, previous 51.7)
10:00 CET · Euro Area · S&P Global Eurozone Composite PMI (consensus 51.9, previous 51.9)
10:30 CET · United Kingdom · S&P Global UK Services PMI (consensus 53.1, previous 53.1)
10:30 CET · United Kingdom · Official Reserves Changes (previous -$6010m)
10:30 CET · United Kingdom · S&P Global UK Composite PMI (consensus 53.1, previous 53.1)
12:01 CET · New Zealand · Cotality Home Value MoM (previous -0.3%)
13:00 CET · United States · MBA Mortgage Applications (previous 3.4%)
14:30 CET · United States · US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement
14:30 CET · United States · Trade Balance (consensus -$107.9b, previous -$105.6b)
14:30 CET · Canada · Int'l Merchandise Trade (consensus 5.00b, previous 4.20b)
14:30 CET · United States · Imports MoM (consensus 1.4%, previous 4.3%)
14:30 CET · United States · Exports MoM (consensus 1.8%, previous 1.4%)
15:30 CET · Canada · S&P Global Canada Services PMI (previous 48.3)
15:30 CET · Canada · S&P Global Canada Composite PMI (previous 48.7)
15:45 CET · United States · S&P Global US Services PMI (consensus 57.9, previous 57.9)
15:45 CET · United States · S&P Global US Composite PMI (previous 57.6)
16:30 CET · United States · DOE Total Fuel Ethanol Inventory (previous 24523k)
16:30 CET · United States · DOE Fuel Ethanol Total Production (previous 1118k)
16:30 CET · United States · DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (consensus 0k, previous -1892k)
16:30 CET · United States · DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (previous -624k)
16:30 CET · United States · DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (consensus 100k, previous 3870k)
16:30 CET · United States · DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (consensus -850k, previous -1462k)
16:30 CET · United States · DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization (consensus -0.4%, previous -0.6%)
16:30 CET · United States · DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand (previous 20636)
16:30 CET · United States · DOE Gasoline Implied Demand (previous 9203.3)
16:30 CET · United States · DOE Distillate Implied Demand (previous 5526.9)
22:00 CET · New Zealand · Government 3-Month Financial Statements
22:30 CET · Brazil · Selic Rate (consensus 13.75%, previous 13.75%)
Related: Today's Briefing: Asian Chip Stocks Slide as RBA Hikes and Signals a Pause · Our previous preview: RBA Decision, Swiss CPI, JOLTS, NZ Jobs & Midterms (2 Nov)