Macro Roadmap: ECB & Fed speak, DE & SP CPI, CH KOF, US PPI & Chicago Mfg. PMI
In Switzerland, the KOF business barometer is expected to edge lower in January to 103.
In Germany, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is scheduled for release at 14:00 CET. Prior to this, regional survey results will be published throughout the morning, providing early indications of the national series' direction. Earlier, we get the Spanish CPI, which is expected to decline markedly.
In the US, the December producer price report will be released at 14:00 CET, with the headline and core series expected to decline. Given the recent rise in energy and non-energy commodity prices, these PPI numbers may be receiving less market attention than usual, in my view.
Also note that service prices are still elevated:
MNI is scheduled to release the Chicago Business Barometer for January at 16:45 CET. Market consensus anticipates a modest uptick. Notably, this series demonstrates greater volatility than the influential ISM manufacturing PMI and may occasionally trail it.
Vice Chair Bowman is scheduled to speak at 17:00 CET about monetary policy, supervision, and regulation. In her last speech, she focused on labor market fragility as the primary risk facing the economy, arguing that the Fed should be ready to cut rates further to support employment conditions. She stated that "beneath the surface, the labor market has become more fragile" and warned that "the labor market can appear to be stable right up until it doesn't". She argued the Fed "should continue to focus on risks to our employment mandate and preemptively stabilize and support labor market conditions" and remain "ready to adjust policy to bring it closer to neutral" absent clear improvement in labor conditions. She expressed confidence that inflation is moving toward the Fed's 2% target, estimating core PCE inflation at 2.9% in December when excluding one-off tariff effects. She supported the 75 basis points of cuts implemented since September 2025 and indicated openness to further reductions.