Tomorrow’s Macro Roadmap: China GDP / BOC Rate Decision / US PPI / Fed Warsh Hearing Part II, Williams & Cook / ECB's Nagel / BOE's Pill
Overview — the day at a glance
Wednesday routes through three main events on three continents. The session opens with the quarter's most-watched data outside the US: China's second-quarter GDP at 04:00 CET, released alongside the full June activity dump and an NBS press conference. It closes on North America, where the Bank of Canada decides policy at 15:45 CET with a fresh Monetary Policy Report, and US producer prices land at 14:30 CET, the day after CPI and a key input into the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge.
China's GDP is seen slowing to 4.5% year on year from 5.0%, with quarterly growth cooling to 0.9%. The activity data are expected to extend the same split that has defined the year: resilient industrial production and exports against soft retail sales and a still-contracting investment line.
The Bank of Canada is unanimously expected to hold at 2.25%, so the market focus is on the MPR forecasts and the balance of language between fading energy risk and intensifying trade risk.
US June PPI rounds out the pre-FOMC inflation picture. Headline is seen flat for the month as energy reverses, but core is expected to be firm at 0.4%, lifting the annual core rate to a cycle high of 5.2%. Because several PPI service categories feed into core PCE, the print sharpens the market's estimate of the Fed's preferred gauge ahead of the 27-28 July meeting.
Fed Chair Warsh gives a second day of congressional testimony at 16:00 CET, the day after a first appearance in which he set out a “sea change” in the Fed's approach, pledged to make inflation “a thing of the past”, and reaffirmed the Fed's independence.
The European tail is an inflation cluster: final Swedish, Spanish and Norwegian prints plus euro-area industrial production, with a live question mark over whether Norway's core figure is published at all.
The speaker slate is heavy: two FOMC voters (Williams and Cook), the Bank of England's chief economist, a Bundesbank president on the ECB Governing Council, and the UK Chancellor's Mansion House address.
Data Release Previews
China releases Q2 GDP at 04:00 CET alongside the full June activity set and an NBS press conference. The calendar consensus is 4.5% year on year, down from 5.0% in Q1, with quarterly growth of 0.9% against 1.3%. The setup is the year's defining tension in one release. Production and exports have remained resilient, supported by an AI-related upgrade cycle and some tariff front-loading, while domestic demand has remained soft. The question is whether the slowdown is an orderly downshift as early-year policy support fades, or a signal that the deflationary pull from weak domestic absorption is deepening, with new-home prices still falling around 3.6% year on year. The activity detail decides the tone. Consensus looks for industrial production near 4.6% year on year, retail sales edging back towards flat at -0.1% after -0.6%, and fixed-asset investment still contracting year to date at -4.9%. Urban unemployment is seen holding at 5.1%. The NBS press conference and any language on the H2 growth target are the swing factors, since a clear undershoot would revive expectations of a larger, coordinated fiscal-monetary response.
Editor's Note: The July Politburo meeting is the real audience for this data. A print in line with the 4.5% consensus, with stabilising monthly activity, keeps policymakers on the current path of faster fiscal execution and targeted support. A downside surprise, especially weak retail sales or a further leg down in property and investment, is the scenario that could prompt a coordinated signal beyond the current path. The deflation read-through matters as much as the growth number: soft domestic activity alongside this week's already-cooler CPI would harden the case that pricing power is eroding.
Released with GDP at 04:00 CET, the June monthly set is the texture behind the headline. Consensus has industrial production near 4.6% year-on-year, retail sales recovering to -0.1% from -0.6%, and fixed-asset investment at -4.9% year-to-date. House prices and June FDI complete the picture. The composition is the story. Industrial output is being held up by exports and an AI-centred upgrade cycle, while consumption has leaned on a half-year-end push in autos and accelerating consumer trade-in subsidies. Investment remains the drag: infrastructure risks a second monthly contraction due to slow local-government-bond issuance, and property investment remains in decline. A retail-sales beat driven by subsidies would be read as policy-supported rather than organic.
US June PPI is released at 14:30 CET. The consensus is 0.0% on the month for headline, with the annual rate near 6.2%, and core producer prices at 0.4% on the month, taking the annual core rate to 5.2% from 4.9%. The headline masks the signal. Energy is expected to fall back after climbing more than 30% over three months, dragging the top line to flat, while core goods and core services remain firm on tariff and energy-cost pass-through, as national manufacturing surveys still flag. One bank notes that a September PCE methodology change will down-weight AI-heavy computer components. The importance of the print is less the headline than the detail: several PPI service categories feed directly into core PCE, so CPI on Tuesday and PPI on Wednesday together let the market build its estimate of the Fed's preferred gauge, which is not published until after the July meeting.
The New York Fed's Empire State general business conditions index is released at 14:30 CET, with the consensus at 8.8 against 5.7 in June. The survey has broadly risen over the past year before easing from a spring peak, and its price and employment sub-indexes remain the more useful signals, staying elevated into June.
Editor's Note: A low-tier print on its own, but the prices-paid and prices-received sub-indexes are a same-day cross-check on the PPI pipeline story, and the employment gauge has been a decent lead on factory payrolls.
Korea's June trade figures are released from 02:00 CET, with the unemployment rate scheduled overnight (previous 2.8%). Exports and imports have both run strongly, driven by an AI-related demand cycle that has pushed the current-account surplus to record levels. The trade read matters as the backdrop to the Bank of Korea decision the following day, which the market broadly expects to be a 25bp hike to 2.75% on above-target inflation, currency weakness and financial-stability concerns. Semiconductor-led export strength and a still-firm labour market give the central bank room to move.
Editor's Note: The data themselves are unlikely to move the won much, but they frame the Bank of Korea meeting. Confirmation of the tech-led surplus and a labour market holding near 2.8% unemployment reinforces the case for the start of a gradual tightening cycle, which is the more important market event this week.
Central Bank Meeting & Speech Previews
The Bank of Canada announces at 15:45 CET, with the rate statement and Monetary Policy Report (MPR) at the same time and the Governor's press conference at 16:30. The consensus is a hold at 2.25%, unchanged since the last meeting. The case for standing pat rests on a shift in the risk balance rather than the data alone. Spot oil has fallen well off its late-April highs, and there is little evidence that the energy spike has spread into underlying inflation, with three-month run rates of core measures running near 2%. Against that, US trade policy has hardened since the June meeting after Washington declined to extend the USMCA and moved to annual reviews, keeping trade uncertainty a drag on investment and hiring. With the economy still judged to be in excess supply, the base case is that the qualitative outlook has changed little. The MPR is where the mark-to-market lands. The prior report had inflation peaking near 3%, and May came in hotter at 3.2%, so watch for a change in the central bank's inflation profile. The guidance is important: a repeat of the language that the Bank stands ready to respond in either direction, and will look through the near-term energy impact so long as it does not become persistent, would signal a hold that runs at least to September.
Editor's Note: The genuine two-way risk is not this meeting's rate, which is close to a settled hold, but the forward signal. A statement that leans on excess supply and bidirectional readiness keeps a long pause priced. A statement that flags the second-quarter growth rebound and revises the inflation forecast higher would be read as hawkish and would pull forward the debate about the next move being a hike rather than a cut. The MPR growth-versus-inflation revision is the single most market-moving line.
Fed Chair Warsh delivers the second day of his semi-annual monetary policy testimony to Congress at 16:00 CET, the day after US CPI and the same day as US PPI. Day one on 14 July, before the House Financial Services Committee, was reform-heavy and wide-ranging. On inflation, he said he is “doubling down” on the 2% target and the Fed “will deliver”, called June CPI “positive relative to expectations” but said the data does not say “mission accomplished”, said the Fed needs “new measures to understand underlying inflation”, and rejected a “cruel choice” between stable prices and full employment. On the policy path, he gave no rate signal, saying the coming period will bring a “good family fight” about the extent and timing of deploying tools to get price stability, and that he prefers a policy that avoids “boom and bust”. On the balance sheet, he said it “is part of monetary policy”, that he is “willing to be quite aggressive” with it in periods of crisis, and that he does not think QE is “inherently inflationary, especially in a crisis”. He said the Fed “will remain independent on my watch” and aims to “remove politics from the Fed”; that it does “not want to be in the bailout business” (including crypto) and is racing to issue stablecoin rules under the GENIUS Act; and that AI, though “disruptive for jobs in the near term”, will create new jobs, adding he is “not afraid of productivity-led growth”. He also flagged forthcoming reforms in supervision, regulation and payments. Separately, Governor Waller flagged that another strong inflation print would require considering a near-term hike, and the committee is split.
New York Fed President and permanent FOMC voter John Williams speaks at 14:45 CET, minutes after PPI. In early-July remarks, he grew more sanguine on near-term inflation on the retreat in energy prices, while still calling inflation too high, judged policy well positioned, and defended the June decision to drop forward guidance. He has tempered an earlier dovish lean, noting that persistent AI-driven demand could force the Fed to raise rates.
Editor's Note: As a permanent voter speaking just after PPI, Williams is the first senior-voter reaction to this week's inflation data; a shift in his energy-disinflation framing would carry weight into the July FOMC.
Fed Governor and permanent voter Lisa Cook speaks at 19:00 CET. In her late-May remarks, she judged the risks to the outlook as tilted toward higher inflation, partly reflecting tariffs and energy, characterised the labour market as stable near her estimate of the natural rate, and highlighted more than US$1.5tn of announced AI data-centre investment. Historically dovish, she has shown a mild hawkish tilt.
Editor's Note: A second permanent voter on the same day; Cook speaking in the evening lets her react to the full CPI-plus-PPI picture, so any update to her 'tilted to higher inflation' framing is the tell.
Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks at 12:30 CET. He is one of the MPC's leading hawks, having dissented in favour of a hike at the last meeting, and said in a recent interview that the short answer on whether rates must rise is yes, arguing the UK is running the economy a little hotter than the supply side can sustain. His stance is at odds with a more dovish committee majority ahead of the 30 July decision.
Bundesbank President and ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel speaks at 18:00 CET. In early-July remarks, he stressed the ECB should stay watchful for inflation risks and keep its options open, called June's 25bp hike unavoidable but said it is too early to signal further increases, and sees a real probability that inflation stays elevated for the time being, with core still above target and a tight labour market fuelling wages.
Editor's Note: Nagel is a hawkish anchor on the Governing Council; his careful, options-open framing is the template for the July-versus-September ECB debate, so any tilt in either direction is the market read.